Picks, Predictions & Odds for Aug. 25

August 25th, 2021

A version of this article originally appeared on DraftKings. For more betting insights, check out DraftKings.com.

Last night was very annoying. Jack Flaherty didn’t make past two innings, Xander Bogaerts went 0-for-5 in a game that featured 20 runs and Lars Nootbaar didn’t even start. Time to move on to Wednesday, yes?

Follow me on Twitter or you’re not allowed to read this article. @SBuchanan24

Last night was very annoying. Jack Flaherty didn’t make past two innings, Xander Bogaerts went 0-for-5 in a game that featured 20 runs and Lars Nootbaar didn’t even start. Time to move on to Wednesday, yes?

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Shohei Ohtani, $8,700, Los Angeles Angels (-210) at Baltimore Orioles — The future American League MVP takes the mound tonight against the Orioles, who are in the midst of a 19-game losing streak. Yes, 19, the age we all wish we were again. The last time the Orioles won a game was on Aug. 2, when they beat the Yankees, 7-1. Since then, it’s been a team to face when you need to get back on track. The O’s put in a good effort last night, scoring eight runs against the Angels but naturally, they allowed 14 runs in the process. Shame.

Betting the moneyline when Ohtani starts has been a productive strategy lately, as the Angels have won four straight starts he’s made and 9 of his last 11. Over that span, he hasn’t allowed more than two runs in 10 of those 11 games, solidifying his MVP odds (-3500). The Angels have also performed well as road favorites, going 14-9 in that scenario on the moneyline. Meanwhile, the Orioles are 14-36 as home underdogs. Ohtani also continues to be underpriced despite pitching as well as he has. His salary at $8,700 is laughable when you consider how well he’s done over the past three months. I would expect him to be $9,500 at a minimum but trust me, I’m not upset about this. Facing a team that currently owns a .311 wOBA, a .167 ISO and a 24.8% K% against righties, I’m not sure what you need to worry about.

Highest Projected Total

Minnesota Twins (+140; 4.5 runs) at Boston Red Sox(-160; 5.5 runs) 10.5 runs — As I write this early Wednesday morning, only one game has a projected total in the double-digits. The Twins and Red Sox continue their series at Fenway Park after putting up a combined 20 runs last night. Both bullpens were ravaged in the process, which could lead to another night of big offensive numbers. The Twins remain the best team in the league at hitting the over, doing so 61.3% of the time, which leads the league by 3.4%. The Red Sox continue to struggle with the over at just 46% overall but improve slightly a Fenway Park at 47.6%.

While we always focus on the starting pitchers when looking to take the over or under on the game, I can’t stress enough that it’s important to also look at the teams bullpens as well. The Twins bullpen, specifically, has been poor this month. In August, they’ve thrown 86 innings and have a 4.79 FIP, a 1.57 HR/9, a 3.77 BB/9 and only an 8.5 K/9. If we focus on this past week, those numbers rise to a 6.79 FIP, a 4.8 BB/9 and a 2.5 HR/9. The Red Sox bullpen also got lit up last night, giving up five of the eight runs scored by the Twins while using six relievers. With both starters sharing struggles as of late, this feels like another game with plenty of runs to be scored.

Weather Notes

No weather concerns!

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Mitch Keller, .414, 6.52
Bailey Ober, .379, 5.23
Dean Kremer, .363, 4.69

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Brandon Woodruff, .219, 2.30
Blake Snell, .238, 2.61
Robbie Ray, .242, 1.66

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Dean Kremer, .399, 6.83
Blake Snell, .366, 5.04
Mitch Keller, .358, 4.58

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Walker Buehler, .229, 3.05
Shohei Ohtani, .233, 2.19
Zack Wheeler, .255, 2.52

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers, $9,300 — Castillo continues to have a stellar second half and faces the Brewers for the sixth (!) time this season. He’s pitched extremely well against them almost every single time and has some impressive numbers against this club. Through 29 innings, Castillo has a 3.52 FIP, a .287 wOBA, a 10.2 K/9 and just a 0.3 HR/9. Overall, the second half of the season for Castillo has been a massive turn around from what we saw before. Through 42 innings, he has a 3.91 FIP with a 10.5 K/9 and a 1.2 HR/9. Against a team he’s held in check multiple times, I’m rolling with him as my SP1.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Trea Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, $5,300 — Turner continues to thrive in a Dodgers uniform. Since joining them, he has a .360 wOBA, a .161 ISO, and a 135 wRC+. Tonight he’ll take on Blake Snell ($7,500), who has been better lately but I’m still not sold he’s back to his normal self. Turner absolutely crushes left-handed pitching boasting a .472 wOBA, a .276 ISO and a 196 wRC+. With the way he’s hitting lately and the immense amount of protection in this Dodgers lineup, Turner should thrive in this matchup against Snell.

Save Big by Drafting

Brent Rooker, Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox, $2,700 — Hitting second in the Twins lineup at only $2,700 is a nice value to consider. In what is projected to be one of the highest scoring games of the night, Rooker brings some good pop to the Twins lineup with a .207 ISO against righties. His overall numbers aren’t great but of the 24 hits he has this season, 13 of them have gone for extra bases, six of them being home runs. Against righties at Fenway Park, Pivetta has allowed 10 of the 18 total home runs he’s allowed. In fact, he has a 1.9 HR/9 at home this season compared to just a 0.69 HR/9 on the road.

All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO), 1-800-BETS OFF(IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).

21+ (18+ NH). CO/IL/IN/IA/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/MI only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.