We spent a good amount of time over the last several days thinking about the 2021 Draft. Just this week, we rolled out Top 15 lists for both college players and the high school set. It’s clear that it’s on your mind as well (check out the first question below).

We’ve tried to shine a light on these players who haven’t been seen as much as they normally would, just like we highlighted prospects we haven’t seen in alternate site camps last week. We’ll keep talking about the prospects, even if they aren’t playing. And based on the questions I received for this week’s Inbox, you still want to talk about them.

People sure do want to talk about Draft order, don’t they? Both Jim Callis and I get questions like these every week when we ask for Inbox submissions. Jim even answered one back in August. Truth is, we don’t really know what the 2021 Draft order is going to look like, but we expect it to be some kind of combination/hybrid of the 2019 and 2020 season records. We got so many questions about it this week, we broached the topic on this week’s podcast.

It remains to be seen what approach Major League Baseball will take on this, but one way would be by simply adding 2019 and 2020 together and coming up with a Draft order on overall winning percentage. Another model could give equal weight to both seasons in a 50-50 split. Below is what the Draft order would be as of Wednesday according to the first model, with where each team would pick according to the second model in parentheses.

1. Tigers (2)
2. Orioles (3)
3. Royals (4)
4. Marlins (7)
5. Pirates (1)
6. Mariners (8)
7. Angels (6)
8. Rockies (11)
9. Blue Jays (15)
10. Rangers (5)
11. Reds (12)
12. Giants (14)
13. Padres (20)
14. Red Sox (9)
15. D-backs (10)
16. White Sox (22)
17. Phillies (17)
18. Mets (16)
19. Nationals (13)
20. Brewers (18)
21. Cubs (21)
22. Cardinals (19)
23. Indians (23)
24. Braves (25)
25. A’s (27)
26. Rays (29)
27. Twins (28)
28. Yankees (26)
29. Astros (24)*
30. Dodgers (30)
*Astros will forfeit their first- and second-round picks in the 2021 Draft as a result of the sign-stealing scandal.

Neither system is perfect, but there isn’t all that much deviation. Teams who have surprisingly done well or poorly this year move down or up more in the 50-50 system, pushing a team like the Padres down seven spots or a team like the Red Sox up five.

I put the Rockies ahead of the Blue Jays based on their poorer 2020 record, but I stand by my tiebreaker suggestion I mentioned in the podcast: Each team in a tie sends its fastest guy and they run a 60-yard dash. Whoever wins gets the better pick. Or maybe a full-on skills competition? Though I suppose you could argue the team that doesn’t win should get the better pick, right?

Reports on the two top lefties in the system have been very good. Muller, No. 7 on the Braves’ Top 30, continues to impress with his ever-increasing velocity. He’s been touching 100 mph with his fastball in alternate camp. He’s also focused on developing his changeup, which is his third pitch, and has made considerable progress on that front. His command, an issue in the past, has gotten better this summer.

Davidson, the organization’s No. 9 prospect, made a strong impression in Spring Training during the shutdown and also got to show what he could do in Summer Camp. He’s always had good stuff across the board, but one of the biggest developments has been with his breaking stuff. In the past, he threw a curveball that he would add and subtract from to manipulate the shape of it. He now has two distinct pitches in his curve and slider, giving him a legitimate four-pitch mix.

The short answer is that it’s the same as it has been. Whether that changes in the future remains to be seen. Even with the shortened season, though, only pre-September days on a big league roster counted toward service time. Days accrued from September 1 will not count toward that active service total. We’ve always used the rules dictating rookie eligibility to determine who qualifies for our rankings, with the cutoff being more than 45 days on the active roster.

In other words, no one is going to graduate off a list between now and the end of the season based on service time. There are some who will hit the at-bats (130) or innings pitched (50) limits, but that’s it. It will be interesting to see if the rules governing service time change over time. If you remember, even before the pandemic wreaked havoc on the 2020 season, September roster expansion was going to be limited to a maximum of 28 players. With so few callups, I do wonder if there will be a move to make September time on the roster officially “active days.”

I had to answer this one because I couldn’t believe someone was already asking a Rule 5 Draft question. Before I answer, I get to drop in the boilerplate paragraph explaining the Rule 5 and who is eligible:

Players first signed at age 18 must be added to 40-man rosters within five seasons or they become eligible to be drafted by other organizations through the Rule 5 process. Players signed at 19 years or older have to be protected within four seasons. Clubs pay $100,000 to select a player in the Major League phase of the Rule 5 Draft. If that player doesn't stay on the 25-man roster for the full season, he must be offered back to his former team for $50,000. For this year, that means an international or high school Draft pick signed in 2016 -- assuming he was 18 or younger as of Draft time of that year -- had to be protected. A college player taken in the 2017 Draft is in the same position.

With that in mind, here’s a quick look at the Top 100 prospects who will be eligible for the Rule 5 if they aren’t added to the 40-man roster this offseason:

No. 19 Forrest Whitley, RHP, Astros
No. 23 Matt Manning, RHP, Tigers
No. 31 Alex Kirilloff, OF/1B, Twins
No. 42 Nolan Jones, 3B, Indians
No. 55 Taylor Trammell, OF, Mariners
No. 68 Brailyn Marquez, LHP, Cubs
No. 79 Brandon Marsh, OF, Angels
No. 85 Geraldo Perdomo, SS, D-backs
No. 89 Jordan Balazovic, RHP, Twins

While it will be more difficult to figure out who should get a 40-man roster spot because there was no 2020 regular season, and it’s pretty clear there isn’t going to be any Arizona Fall League, rest assured the players above will be protected from the Rule 5 Draft in December. The top 100 guys always are. Which leads me to a very short and direct answer to your question: None of them.

Ever since the rules changed several years ago, giving teams an extra year to evaluate players before having to protect them, the level of impact of players taken has receded a great deal. Last year’s Major League phase had 11 players taken and eight of them actually have big league time this season. But they’ve combined for a -1.4 WAR. Over the last three years of the Rule 5, a total of two players have a career WAR over 1: Tigers outfielder Victor Reyes (1.2) and the best Rule 5 selection in recent memory, Royals starter Brad Keller (8.4). Blue Jays reliever Jordan Romano has a 1.1 WAR this year (0.7 for his career) and seems to be growing into a bigger bullpen role. But see what I mean about lack of impact?