Inbox: Can Skenes go No. 1; best bat outside top 5?

June 21st, 2023

I'm writing this before I head over to Chase Field for the second day of MLB Draft Combine workouts, so this edition of the Inbox will reflect that I have a severe case of Draft fever . . .

Let's tackle these questions in reverse order. I made a case in my last Pipeline Inbox as to why Skenes should be selected ahead of Crews. A pitcher like Skenes comes around every decade or so, and as talented as Crews is, it's harder to find an ace.

In his last start at the College World Series, Skenes beat Tennessee while allowing two runs and striking out 12 in 7 2/3 innings, a fairly pedestrian effort by his standards this spring. He averaged 99.7 mph and hit 102 with his fastball and while his slider wasn't as dominant as usual, his changeup looked better than ever. His cambio sat at 88 mph with fade and sink and it got seven swings and misses out of 20 pitches.

So yes, there's a very realistic scenario where the Pirates could take Skenes at No. 1. Crews and Indiana high school outfielder Max Clark (on a discount) get tied to Pittsburgh more often in mock drafts, but the truth is that the club hasn't made any decisions yet. The Bucs are doing their due diligence on each of the top five prospects (Crews, Skenes, Florida outfielder Wyatt Langford, North Carolina prep outfielder Walker Jenkins, Clark) and may keep their choice quiet right up until they exercise it on July 9.

As for Dollander, who entered the season as our second-ranked Draft prospect behind Crews, he perplexes me. The Tennessee right-hander still has quality stuff but his command hasn't been nearly as good as it was in 2022. That has led to a season of inconsistency that continued when he allowed four runs in three innings against Stanford in his CWS start.

I still think Dollander will be the second-best pitcher in this Draft, though his performance is tough to explain. I could see him going as high as No. 6 to the Athletics, believe the Reds at No. 7 are a possibility and see the Rockies at No. 9 as his likely landing spot. If he does slide into the double-digits picks, he shouldn't get past the White Sox at No. 15.

We discussed this question on the latest Pipeline Podcast, and the first name that came to mind for me was Florida high school third baseman Aidan Miller. He was the best hitter on the showcase circuit last summer, and his stock has taken a slight hit after he lost almost all of his senior season to a broken hamate. There's no reason to think he won't come back and hit for plenty of power and average, and some team is going to get a steal when they take him in the teens.

My initial interpretation of this question was which prospect outside the top five had the highest offensive ceiling. If it's which position prospect has the most upside, a case can be made for Texas high school catcher Blake Mitchell. He could be a .275 hitter with 25 homers while providing average defense and plus-plus arm strength at catcher.

The Reds system needs quality outfielders. What are the chances one of the top four slides to them? If not, what prospects look like good fits for pick 38 and 43? -- Johnny S., Jellico, Tenn.

It's going to be nearly impossible for Crews, Langford, Jenkins or Clark to get to the Reds at No. 7. If the Pirates and Nationals start off by taking the college outfielders, and then the Tigers (No. 3) and Twins (No. 5) decide they have to have college bats, Jenkins or Clark could fall to Cincinnati. Don't count on that happening.

When the Reds' next two picks pop up toward the end of the supplemental first round and the top of the second round, there won't necessarily be an abundance of outfield possibilities. Looking at players who fit there in terms of talent, I come up with three: Virginia Tech's Jack Hurley, Virginia high schooler Johnny Farmelo and Mississippi State's Colton Ledbetter. There's also a chance that all three of them might not make it to No. 38.

For most of the players at the Draft Combine, the off-field stuff matters more than the on-field workouts. The vast majority of them have been scouted heavily on the high school showcase circuit and in college summer leagues, then during their spring seasons. The workouts matter more for players who missed time or come from a small college that isn't equipped to provide data, such as exit velocities or pitch shapes.

The two most important things that clubs get out of the combine are medicals and interviews. Players who undergo a comprehensive medical exam are guaranteed at least 75 percent of the assigned pick value for wherever they are picked in the Draft, and most of them consent to do so. They also get the opportunity to meet face to face with several executives from each team, giving both sides the opportunity to get to know each other better.