Few things get people talking more than mock drafts. I knew that our first one of the “Draft season,” released earlier this week, would spark debate, which is kind of why we write them, right?
I also had a sense that people would want to ask about which players I put where and why. So I opened the floor for questions and got some good ones for this week’s Inbox.
It’s always a cool “local kid done good” story when a team drafts a player in their own backyard. Think Neil Walker going to the Pirates in 2004 or the Braves nabbing Jason Heyward in 2007. It makes for a great headline and in those instances, both made it to their hometown team and became big league regulars.
The one thing you have to be wary of is stretching too far for the feel-good story. I’m not saying Ed Howard, who goes to Mt. Carmel High School in Chicago, is a reach talent-wise. We do, after all, have him ranked No. 15 on our Draft Top 150 and the White Sox pick 11th. That’s in the right ballpark, so in that sense, it’s not out of the question.
But I was thinking of two things when I did that first-round mock. The first is that several teams mentioned that while no player was seen all that much this spring, Howard wasn’t seen at all. Now, that’s not his fault, but anyone taking him will be going 100 percent on what he did last summer, when he was a bit up-and-down (but mostly good). It made it a little harder to place him, and that's why I put him at No. 18 in this first edition.
The other thing I thought of was the South Sider's track record in the first round. Yes, it’s true that there’s a new scouting director in Mike Shirley, but he’s been a part of this scouting department for some time now. And it’s a group that hasn’t taken a high school player in the first round since 2013 (Courtney Hawkins). Could it happen? I learned a long time ago not to rule anything out. But if I had to guess, which is what projecting the first round at this point largely is anyway, I wouldn’t have the White Sox taking Howard. But maybe the “other” team in Chicago could take him at No. 16 ...
I’m guessing by your Twitter handle that you would like University of Georgia right-hander Emerson Hancock to get to the Blue Jays at No. 5. Could that happen? Sure, but it wouldn’t really be because of any real dip in his stuff. Yes, he wasn’t super sharp out of the gate, but his last start before the shutdown was a gem: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 12 K. Some surmise that the first part of the season was more like Spring Training to Hancock as he prepared for the SEC schedule.
Also, no one is going to knock a guy who was arguably the best college pitcher in all of baseball in 2019 (when he also started off relatively slowly) too much for a couple of so-so starts. I did have Hancock going No. 4 in that first mock, but he could still figure into any of the top three spots. But don’t lose hope. If Spencer Torkelson, Austin Martin and Asa Lacy end up going in those first three spots, the Royals could easily take Nick Gonzales No. 4, leaving the Georgia ace for the Blue Jays to take at 5.
J.T. Ginn likely would have profiled as a first-round pick as a Draft-eligible sophomore out of Mississippi State this year if he hadn’t required Tommy John surgery after just one outing, so it would be reasonable to see him go in the first round. It’s certainly happened with post-surgery pitchers in the past. The first instinct is to put him with the Nationals, who pick at No. 22, because they don’t shy away from “riskier” picks like this. And that could very well still happen. Keep in mind that there’s so much uncertainty this time of year normally, and even more so now because of the coronavirus, that having a good sense of the back half of the first round is nearly impossible. As we get closer, either Jim Callis or myself, or both, might hear Ginn with the Nats or another team, so it’s not out of the question he’ll show up in future mocks.
Of course there’s a chance the Orioles could go with a pitcher with the No. 2 pick. It wouldn’t even really be much of a reach. As I said in the mock draft, the O’s are in a good spot because they can react off of what the Tigers do. Now, if the Tigers don’t take Spencer Torkelson, the Arizona State first baseman, then I see virtually no way the Orioles don’t take him. Most seem to feel the two hitters, Torkelson and Austin Martin, will go in the top two spots, but no one would blink if Baltimore decided internally that they valued Texas A&M lefty Asa Lacy or the aforementioned Emerson Hancock more.
I will add one thing, though. Teams should not, and typically do not, draft for need in the first round, especially when they pick this high. Now, if everything else is equal, if Orioles GM Mike Elias and company have put, say, Martin and Lacy at the same level, then maybe Lacy gets the nod because they need pitching. Those are a lot of “ifs,” and I wouldn’t count on that happening. At the end of the day, you want your team at No. 2 taking the best player available, period, regardless of position.
Jonathan Mayo is a reporter for MLBPipeline.com. Follow him on Facebook and @JonathanMayo, and listen to him on the weekly MLB Pipeline Podcast.