Living in Pittsburgh, our winter has been harsher than usual. Huge snowstorm, subarctic temperatures. But I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the sun has come out, it’s warmed up and the snow has begun to melt right at the same time that Spring Training has begun.
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We’re obviously always thinking about the future here at MLB Pipeline, but it’s hard not to get excited and feel the buzz about the short-term future, the 2026 season. You’re getting it, too, right? I got the sense given the influx of questions this week.
The Super Bowl is over … now it’s baseball time! So let’s get to it.
What is Ethan Salas’ outlook to the big leagues, provided he progresses at a reasonable rate? – @straymwbl
“Provided he progresses” is one of the biggest “ifs” and Salas is now one of the most enigmatic prospects in baseball. We were all excited for his arrival when the Padres signed him for $5.6 million at the start of the 2023 international signing period. We knew he was advanced, and bringing him straight to the United States wasn’t shocking. It wasn’t even that surprising that he went to full-season ball at age 17. He then performed well with Single-A Lake Elsinore, adding to the hype. He’s been as high as the top five of our Top 100.
That’s when things started to go sideways. The Padres pushed him to High-A and then up to Double-A to finish that first full season. His 2024 season, spent in Fort Wayne, wasn’t great, but he had made some adjustments at the end of the year and he did OK as an 18-year-old in the Arizona Fall League. Perhaps he was righting the ship.
He was pushed up to Double-A in 2025, which turned out to be a lost year because of a stress reaction in his back, and he’s no longer in our Top 100. It’s hard to know exactly who he is or what kind of prospect he is. He was definitely rushed too quickly; maybe the injury was a blessing in disguise to force the Padres to pump the brakes. For all of the struggles, he still won’t turn 20 until June, and he could be slow-rolled out this year, letting him build-up reps, and confidence, at lower levels. I wouldn’t be opposed to him spending all year in Fort Wayne again, but that might be wishful thinking. If things go well, maybe he spends half of the year in Double-A. Then I’d let him start the 2027 season back at San Antonio and go from there. Obviously, if things click, move him based on his performance, but I’m hoping cooler heads prevail, which could put him in line for a September 2027 or Opening Day 2028 callup.
Which player from last year’s Draft will breakout like Konnor Griffin did? – @phillystars.bsky.social
We answered this on this week’s MLB Pipeline Podcast, where we also had No. 1 Draft prospect Roch Cholowsky on as a guest. Griffin, the No. 9 pick in the 2024 Draft, came in at No. 43 on the 2025 preseason Top 100 and, as we all know, catapulted up to No. 1 on the list. On the pod, Jim Callis and I both looked at a similar demographic – high school shortstop types who aren’t really high on the current Top 100 (meaning we didn’t consider Eli Willits or Ethan Holliday).
I chose JoJo Parker who is almost eerily similar, taken No. 8 overall by the Blue Jays last year and coming in at No. 45 on this year’s Top 100. He doesn’t have as loud tools as Griffin, but he does have the kind of offensive upside that could allow him to vault up the list this season. Jim took Yankees’ first-rounder Dax Kilby, their first pick in 2025 at No. 39 overall, who is currently ranked at No. 94. Going straight to Single-A Tampa and posting an OPS of .898 over 18 games has raised the expectation bar for him.
Are there any positives in the Angels farm system? Any signs of improvement anywhere at all? – @jimmythalos
I do the Angels’ Top 30 and I understand the frustration that comes through in this question. The system has been thin, a reason they’ve been between No. 27 and 30 over our last five editions of our farm system rankings. It doesn’t help that when they do add some very good first-round talent, they get to the big leagues and graduate quickly, but there hasn’t been much behind those handful of players.
I do think, however, that there are some interesting things percolating down on the farm. There’s still just one guy on the Top 100, 2025 first-rounder Tyler Bremner (No. 81), but there are intriguing guys starting to fill in behind him. Nelson Rada was very productive in Triple-A, albeit without a ton of impact, at age 19. If that wasn’t a mirage, he could be a productive big leaguer soon. Scouts really like young catcher Gabriel Davalillo, too, but he’s far away. Beyond that, the reason to have tempered enthusiasm is with the arms. Now, a lot can go wrong with young pitching, but between some college pitchers throwing well last year, some more added in the 2025 Draft and the scouting department rolling the dice on high-ceilinged high school hurlers, there is some upside there. Whether any of them click remains to be seen, but there’s optimism with the addition of former big leaguer Jared Hughes as the organization’s pitching coordinator, with the hope that he can help install a system that teases out maximum potential from all of them.
Who is one former highly regarded prospect that missed most or all of 2025 and whose stock faded that you fully expect to regain their value this season? – @adamkaroly
The first one that comes to mind is the aforementioned Ethan Salas, but I don’t want to double up here. Another who comes to mind is the Reds’ Rhett Lowder, who would have graduated from prospect status if last year was not lost to injuries. Word is he reported early on a mission to show that the 2024 version of him, who rushed his way to the big leagues, is who he really is. I could easily see the right-hander returning to form and greatly impacting the big league rotation this year. We still rank Twins outfielder Emmanuel Rodriguez pretty well, MLB No. 74, but the guy can’t stay healthy. Still, scouts love his tools – if he stays on the field, he’s going to produce like the top prospect he’s been and also reach Minnesota.