Inbox: Prospect comparisons, Draft chatter

April 2nd, 2020

It’s still unclear what’s going to happen baseball-wise in 2020 as we all continue to adjust to this COVID-altered reality. But people still want to talk about baseball.

And while we’re still awaiting details on exactly what the Draft will look like this year, people are interested in what the top of the Draft might have to offer. Two of this week’s Inbox questions involve the 2020 Draft class, but we’ll start things with an interesting comparison of two Top 100 Minor League prospects.

Currently, we have Marco Luciano of the Giants at No. 35 on our Top 100, while Kristian Robinson (D-backs) comes in at No. 43. They both have big up arrows next to their names and it’s easy to see both Luciano, a big international signing in 2018, and Robinson, who signed in 2017, moving up to the top part of our list in the future.

Rather than just spitting out the reports we have on both players, I spoke to an international scouting director who knows both players very well, dating back to evaluating both as amateur players. Here’s what he had to say:

“The first thing that stands out is that Kristian Robinson is a lot faster. He’s a more athletic, explosive athlete who is an outfielder only. Luciano might be able to play the outfield, but he’s more of a physical infielder type. Their body types are pretty similar, in that 6-2 or 6-3, 190 pound world. Luciano’s raw power is probably a grade better. Their hitability is a draw right now. I think we’re waiting to see Robinson to prove it for a full season, and we’re waiting for Luciano to reach full-season ball and do the same. It’s a good comparison. They’d be neck in neck in our rankings.”

We’re currently working on revising and expanding our Draft prospect rankings to a top 200, so we haven’t quite lined things up just yet. But the two pitchers you ask about, lefty Asa Lacy from Texas A&M and right-hander Emerson Hancock from Georgia, were the top two college arms in the Top 100 we put out last December.

They’ll likely be the top two arms in the new rankings and it’s easy to see both going in the top five whenever the Draft takes place. Lacy had gotten off to a better start than Hancock before things got shut down, but this Draft will be all about track record rather than the four starts either made.

Hancock drew some comparisons to Casey Mize, the No. 1 pick in the 2018 Draft, in terms of build, stuff and competition (SEC). So that’s a good starting point in trying to figure where he might belong in our midseason Top 100. Mize debuted at No. 20 in our 2018 re-rank after he was drafted, and he was No. 7 on the top 10 right-handed pitching prospects list and he’s moved up since based on the success he had in his first full season. Our list of the top 10 right-handers is really deep right now, but I could see Hancock as high as No. 5 on that list and somewhere in the early 20s on the Top 100, in the neighborhood of Sixto Sanchez.

Lacy doesn’t have as direct a comparison to make, but he is a big lefty with the chance to have a four-pitch mix and at least three above-average to plus offerings. The only question is his command, but the stuff is legit. Last year, Nick Lodolo was the top college lefty (and top arm overall) in the Draft class and he debuted at No. 61 on the midseason Top 100. That placed him sixth on the top 10 left-handers list. Lacy has better pure stuff, but not the same kind of pitchability, but I think he probably belongs ahead of where Lodolo started out (He’s now at No. 48 on the Top 100 and No. 5 on the LHP list). I’d probably have him not far from Hancock, maybe around No. 30 or so, which could put him around No. 4 on those southpaw rankings.

While it’s true the Rangers did go college heavy last year, starting with first-rounder Josh Jung, I don’t know that I’d necessarily draw a conclusion about a long-term direction the Rangers are heading in. I’ve always thought of the Rangers as an organization that goes after the best available players overall and plays to the strength of a Draft. Last year, they felt the strength was in college players, so that’s where they focused. In 2018, their first five picks were all high schoolers and their first three selections in 2017 were also prepsters.

I bring that up mostly to show that it’s certainly possible they’ll look at the high school hitters you bring up. Back in December, Austin Hendrick, Ed Howard and Robert Hassell were all in the 11-20 range, as was one prep bat you didn’t mention that you might want to keep an eye on, Tyler Soderstrom. Pete Crow-Armstrong (PCA) was a touch lower, at No. 25, but belongs in the conversation as well, along with Zac Veen. The very top of the Draft class is college-heavy, but at No. 14, there are a bunch of high school hitters that definitely could be in play. So you might get your wish. Don’t rule out the prep arms, either, even the top ones, as they often slip down. And there are some good ones: Jared Kelley, Mick Abel and Nick Bitsko are all worth paying attention to.