Rookies continue to do amazing things in the postseason and the Arizona Fall League is running strong. We sure love watching these young players shine in action. And answering questions about them.
This week’s MLB Pipeline Inbox is very AFL-forward, though I threw in a question about a 2023 first-round pick for good measure.
How much consideration would you give prospects to improve their ranking from a strong AFL season? -- @StevieDAles97
Stevie D lobbing up the question that’s perfect for me to give the semi-regular talk about how much we should/do value Fall League performances. It’s a fairly pat answer, one that holds regardless of the year.
A strong AFL performance will no doubt help a prospect’s ranking, but we always are sure to recognize that it’s a very small sample size (100 plate appearances or so for hitters; 20 IP at the absolute most typically) and that historically, it’s a hitting-friendly league. So any big numbers we see put up should be taken with a grain of salt.
That’s not to say we’ll ignore it. Last year, Eduouard Julien started the 2022 season not on the Twins’ Top 30. He had jumped to No. 14 when he headed to the AFL based on a strong regular season. His AFL helped make the decision move him up to No. 4 on the Twins’ list to start 2023, largely because it was a continuation of what he had done during the year.
Maybe it can have more of an impact on a Top 30, but it’s also important that it’s used in context with other performances. An out-of-nowhere hot stretch isn’t likely to move the needle too much; at least, that’s what we strive for.
Sterlin Thompson had a good Minor League season and is tearing up the AFL. Is he another Rockies candidate to be on the top 100 next year? -- @treat_12
We answered this one on this week’s Pipeline Podcast so be sure to take a listen. I’ve been a fan of Thompson from his Florida days, when scouts often raved about his smooth left-handed swing. He went No. 31 overall in the 2022 Draft and started out his first full season as hot as any hitter in the Minors (1.259 OPS in April). Then he hit the injured list with a left elbow issue and missed more than a month. It took him a while to get going, but he still made it to Double-A.
He’s off to a .480/.594/.720 start over seven Fall League games, but I’ll refer you to the above answer as to why we shouldn’t put too much weight on that. I’d like to see him do more in Double-A (.762 OPS in 34 games this year) before I’m ready to put him on the Top 100, but I will say that what he’s doing now does put him on a list of “guys to watch” to add on if he continues to hit like this in 2024. My prediction is he will, and maybe hit his way to Colorado in the process.
Kyle Manzardo and Chase DeLauter both had injuries that hindered their Minor League seasons. However both finished their seasons strong and now are tearing up the AFL (at least thus far). Am I right in thinking that despite their slow starts that they would have up arrows beside their names? -- @KyleWeatherly6
I almost think you need to separate these two outs, even though both are on our Top 100 list. Yes, Manzardo’s 2023 didn’t replicate his 2022 success (1.043 OPS) with the Rays organization, but we’re still bullish on his ability to hit, which is why he’s still at No. 58 overall on that list, and why I don’t think the ‘up arrow’ ever left his name.
De Lauter has been a little tougher to figure out, mostly because he hadn’t been healthy. His broken left foot made him harder to evaluate as a junior at James Madison and then he needed surgery on that foot in January after reinjuring it. So he didn’t make his pro debut until June 5 and played in just 57 games this year. Still, we have him at No. 85 overall because of his offensive upside.
Both are making up for lost time in the Fall League more than anything else. And you’re right, thus far Manzardo has an OPS north of 1.000 with three homers and 10 RBIs in seven games, while DeLauter has a pair of homers and 12 RBIs in eight games so far for Peoria. Perhaps DeLauter is the one with more of an up arrow, and Manzardo’s could be stronger, but more than anything, I think that if they use this Fall League time to springboard them to continued to production at the upper levels in 2024, perhaps even the big leagues, then they could jump even higher.
Where will Walker Jenkins end up next year? Double-A, Triple-A or Majors? -- @coachdaniel17
I wanted to have one non-AFL related question in there. It’s hard not to be excited about Jenkins, which makes sense given that he was the No. 5 overall pick in the Draft. He certainly added to the buzz by reaching full-season ball and hitting a combined .362/.417/.571 over 26 games between the Florida Complex and Florida State Leagues.
While I think Jenkins is a truly gifted hitter who has the chance to be an impact big league bat and one that might move relatively quickly, I will urge you to pump the brakes a little bit. I’ll never say never, but expecting a high school draftee to make it to the big leagues in his first full year isn’t realistic. If I had to guess, he’d start the year back in Fort Myers and will hit his way out fairly rapidly. Could the Twins send him to Cedar Rapids right out of the gate? It’s not impossible, but why not let him hit the ground running in warmer weather and let his performance dictate a move after, say a month. From there, it will depend on if he’s checking off the boxes the Twins have for his development. If I were to put a marker down now, I’ll say he finishes the year in Double-A, but there would be no shame if he spends his entire age 19 year across two levels of A ball, goes to Double-A in 2025, which could get him to the big leagues by the end of that season.