Inbox: Which prospects could we see on Opening Day rosters?

March 22nd, 2024

What a whirlwind it’s been! We’re all trying to catch our breath following our Spring Training travels and the excitement of the inaugural Spring Breakout games. This is a fun time of year with prospects either making Opening Day rosters (we’re looking at you, Jackson Merrill) or close to nailing them down (the subject of the first question in this week’s MLB Pipeline Inbox).

At the same time, the amateur baseball scene is cranking at full-steam and we’re starting to move our attention to the 2024 Draft. With that in mind, I’ve split this week’s Inbox in half between prospects in Spring Training and those on the Draft landscape.

There are plenty we knew were going to make it -- the Jackson Chourios and Evan Carters of the world. And we knew going in that guys like Jackson Holliday and Masyn Winn, to name two, would be given a very long look and opportunity to make the club out of Spring Training.

Then there are surprise Opening Day guys and that list has to start with the Rangers’ Wyatt Langford. It’s not that we didn’t think he was talented: We do have him as our No. 6 overall prospect, after all. It was clear he wasn’t going to spend a long time in the Minors after reaching Triple-A during his pro debut after signing as the No. 4 overall pick in last summer’s Draft, finishing with a .360/.480/.677 slash line. There was little question that he’d impress in big league camp … but make the team? That wasn’t a slam dunk. But it became one thanks to his .388/.446/.796 line over 17 Cactus League games.

As of Thursday, Langford leads all Cactus League hitters in home runs (six), slugging percentage and OPS (1.242). It hasn’t been officially announced that he’s on the team, but it should be. With Carter and Langford, the Rangers have two legitimate Rookie of the Year contenders, doubling their chances of earning an extra Draft pick at season’s end.

On the pitching side, Pirates right-hander Jared Jones has probably been a bigger surprise in terms of potentially breaking camp with the big league team. With all of the excitement Paul Skenes has brought as the top pitching prospect in the game (as our Pirates beat writer Alex Stumpf wrote recently), it’s Jones who might be the most big league-ready pitcher in the system.

Our No. 62 overall prospect made 16 appearances in Triple-A last year, but they were uneven. He’s made a transformation from thrower to pitcher ever since the Pirates took him in the second round of the 2020 Draft. He’s been touching triple digits with his fastball and missing bats with his slider and, most importantly, throwing more strikes. It’s still unclear who will grab the last two spots in Pittsburgh’s rotation, but Jones is doing his best to claim one of them.

If Holliday had made the Opening Day roster -- his .326/.370/.628 slash line in 14 Grapefruit League games made a very strong case -- it would have been as a second baseman. Much of that has to do with personnel, of course, with 2023 AL Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson likely to get most of the time at Holliday’s natural position, not to mention Jorge Mateo, who played 110 games at short last year. Jordan Westburg, the O’s likely third baseman, could also get some reps there, though that doesn’t preclude Holliday from seeing some time at the premium spot upon his arrival as manager Brandon Hyde can move guys around as he sees fit.

I think Holliday would be capable at shortstop long-term should he be needed there, but there has been a general feeling that his arm strength, while improved since he signed as the No. 1 pick in the 2022 Draft, would be better suited for second base. Given the Orioles have better options at short, I’ll say that Holliday settles in as an All-Star-caliber second baseman for the bulk of his career.

And now on to some Draft talk. A quick primer on the term “floor.” When a player is perceived to have a high floor, there’s more certainty of him being a solid big leaguer, even if he lacks the “ceiling” of some to become an elite-level player. Sometimes players with high ceilings also come with high risk. Sure, they might become superstars, but they also might not make it at all. In other words, floor = more certainty.

This year’s Draft, with its lean towards college hitters, has plenty of high floor choices at the plate. I think there’s an argument that could be made for two players: Oregon State’s Travis Bazzana and Georgia’s Charlie Condon. Bazzana, a second baseman, is off to a .461/.577/.934 start with eight homers in his first 19 games, while Condon has likely vaulted himself to the top of Draft boards with an absurd .521/.648/1.192 line, smashing 13 homers in 21 games. (Quick aside: If JJ Wetherholt at West Virginia can come back healthy, he could be in this conversation, too.)

Both Condon and Bazzana have very high floors with outstanding hit tools; you might give Condon a slight edge in this debate because he has more power, while Bazzana has more speed.

On the pitching side, it’s a little bit more up in the air. As the college season began, Wake Forest lefty Josh Hartle would have been the choice, but he’s really struggled so far this year, especially over his last two starts (12 ER in 5 1/3 IP). That said, it’s only five starts in, so there’s time for him to right the ship. For now, though, I’ll give the nod to Tennessee right-hander Drew Beam and his solid four-pitch mix and above-average command. He’s walked just 1.2 per nine and posted a 3.03 ERA in his five starts thus far for the Volunteers.

This one is a no-brainer. I’m excited with what Chase Burns has been able to do this season in his first year at Wake Forest. Who wouldn’t like his 16.6 K/9 rate, 2.08 ERA and .157 opponents' average against? It’s exactly the step forward from his more uneven sophomore season at Tennessee that evaluators were hoping for. But comparing him to Paul Skenes, generally considered to be the best pitching prospect we’ve seen since Stephen Strasburg, is unfair.

Even with Burns’ improvements (and while he throws a lot of strikes), he doesn’t have the overall command Skenes had as the Draft approached. That’s particularly true in terms of fastball command, though again, Burns’ fastball and its characteristics have gotten better. Additionally, Skenes’ changeup was much better and the Wake Forest starter doesn’t use the pitch all that often. Burns has closed the gap, but Skenes still wins this debate pretty easily.