If this week’s Pipeline Inbox seems like it has an up-the-middle theme, you’re not wrong. I’d like to say it was completely by design, but sometimes you just go with the flow of the questions sent in. And in this case, we’re talking about middle infielders, catchers and pitchers.
Of the suddenly emerging top catching prospects this year (I’m thinking guys like Gabriel Moreno, Cal Raleigh, Tyler Soderstrom, Henry Davis, and MJ Melendez, and there’s probably more), which one or two is going to actually hit well once they make it to The Show?
-- @MudvilleOutlook
Not everyone on the list you provided falls in the same bucket. Davis (the Pirates' top prospect and No. 23 overall) was just drafted this July, Soderstrom (A's No. 1, MLB No. 44) a year ago, so it’s a little unfair to say they are “suddenly emerging.” But I get the point. All of these guys have shown off some impressive offensive skills and the question is which ones do I believe can do it in the big leagues.
In some ways, the question could also be “Which one or two is actually going to defend well enough to catch in The Show?” There were questions about Davis and his ability to receive (his arm is not a question at all, a 70 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale), and not everyone is convinced Soderstrom will stick back there, though he’s athletic enough to handle a number of other positions as needed. And those are the two who might have the best chance to hit. I’m particularly confident in Soderstrom’s hit tool, though he is still pretty far away. Davis’ setup is a bit unorthodox, but it works and he barrels up the baseball. Moreno (Blue Jays' No. 1, MLB No. 33) has pretty much hit everywhere, too, so I’ll put him in that group as well, even though you said to pick only one or two.
I do think Raleigh (graduated from the Seattle farm system) hits enough to be a solid big league regular, and the improvements in the approach of Melendez (Royals' No. 4, MLB No. 69) give me hope there, too. I don’t see him as a guy who is going to hit for a high average, but there is more belief he’s going to get to his power consistently enough to be a very good big leaguer, especially when combined with his defensive skillset.
With all the recent discussion about 2B prospects establishing themselves on their own, do you see relief pitchers doing the same in the next few years? Should fans expect to see RP on future Top 100 lists?
-- @spencer_ogara
To quote Sam Dykstra on this week’s Pipeline Podcast, this is a bit like comparing apples to lettuce. This is not to dismiss the premise of the question, just that it's tough comparing second basemen to relievers, or even the starter-reliever transition to the move from short to second. But there’s some good stuff in here to dig into.
The first is the fact that there are indeed some very good second base prospects out there and it is true that playing that position in the Minor Leagues isn’t an indication of being a failed shortstop necessarily. (This is the one thing that parallels with the whole starter-reliever thing, in my opinion -- that bias.) We now have six second basemen on our Top 100, tied for the most we’ve ever had. (We also had six on our midseason 2016 Top 100 re-rank.)
Relievers are a different matter (thus the lettuce). Listen to the podcast for the entire discussion, but I will say quickly it is a bit tougher to evaluate relief arms in a Top 100 landscape. Maybe it’s still a “failed starter” bias, or maybe it’s that they aren’t always put into high-leverage situations until they’re in the big leagues, so we don’t really know the impact they’ll have until they’re no longer prospects. Some of them move too quickly through a system to be considered seriously, and some are former starters who convert to the 'pen and then take off. Sam and I did commit to looking harder at relievers in 2022 and beyond (we’ll drag Jim Callis along, too), even if it’s within the confines of their respective teams' Top 30 lists for now.
Noelvi Marte seems overrated. His numbers aren't as consistent as one might think for a top 10 prospect in baseball. Can you explain why MLB Pipeline is so high on him?
-- @Ms4Life_
Technically, he’s No. 11 on our Top 100 … but I digress. The biggest thing is that our rankings aren’t really based on numbers in A ball. Obviously, at a certain point, a top prospect has to produce at whatever level he’s at, but we are really looking at long-term projection here. It’s not as much about what Marte, or any young prospect, is doing in A ball, it’s what we think they’ll do once they are established in the big leagues.
No, Marte hasn’t put up Wander Franco or Vladdy Jr. type numbers in his first full season (and United States debut, I should add). While those two made their pro debuts in rookie-level leagues in the U.S., Marte started in the Dominican Summer League in 2019, and he was very, very good. Then, like so many, there was no competition in 2020, so he moved to Low-A for his U.S. debut this year. The teenager did manage to get promoted up a level, still at age 19, and has a combined .826 OPS with 17 homers in 106 games. The power is legit, and he has a solid approach (.367 OBP), which points to him continuing to hit -- and with pop -- as he moves up. In other words, we think he’s just getting started and will show just how good an offensive player he can be as he continues to mature.
You don’t mention Marco Luciano, who is about a month older than Marte and has also spent time at both A levels. Luciano’s been in High-A longer, but hasn’t produced much since that promotion. He had a .930 OPS in Low-A, compared to Marte’s .831, but overall Marte’s .826 OPS is better than Luciano’s .820. Is Luciano also overrated? I’m not suggesting that, and the fact that he was even better in Low-A is one smaller reason (again, along with long-term projections), why he’s No. 5 and Marte is 11.