Inbox: Will Condon or Bazzana go No. 1 in Draft?

We unveiled our new Draft Top 200 Wednesday, Jonathan Mayo followed up with a first-round projection yesterday, two dozen potential first-rounders are playing in NCAA regional tournaments today. And the Draft is still six weeks away, so we'll have plenty more coverage. Let's tackle some Draft questions in the latest Pipeline Inbox ...

Georgia outfielder/third baseman Charlie Condon ranked No. 1 ahead of Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana on our Draft Top 150 before we reversed them on the Top 200. Most other media outlets still have Condon No. 1 on their lists, so MLB Pipeline is more the outlier right now.

Jonathan and I try to reflect industry consensus based on talent (rather than our own personal opinions or signability) when we compile our Draft lists, and Jonathan conducted a survey of 26 high-level scouting executives asking them to rank the 10 best players available. Bazzana received 17 No. 1 votes to Condon's seven, hence our decision to flip them.

I will say that voting surprised me because while covering the Draft all spring, I've sensed a strong consensus among clubs that Condon is the better prospect. I do believe he and Bazzana are the two best prospects in the Draft, and they're both having monster seasons. Condon is batting .443/.558/1.043 with a BBCOR-era record 35 homers, Bazzana is slashing .418/.581/.939 with a Beavers-record 26 homers and they rank 1-2 in NCAA Division I in OPS.

It's easy to make the argument for either player. Bazzana is arguably the best pure hitter available and has advantages over Condon in that he bats left-handed and is a definite infielder (albeit an average second baseman). I'd take Condon, who's most likely a corner outfielder, because he features the best combination of power, contact and plate discipline in the Draft. I envision him hitting 35-40 homers per season in the Majors.

Tennessee right-hander Chase Burns and Arkansas left-hander Hagen Smith rank fifth and sixth on the new Top 200, They both have wipeout fastball/slider combinations and are on pace to set the D-I record for strikeout rate, with Smith (17.5 per nine innings) currently edging Burns (17.4). Smith leads the nation in ERA (1.48) and opponent average (.139) while Burns is tops in strikeouts (184).

Supply and demand mean that both Burns and Smith could go higher than we have them ranked. Big league teams are desperate for pitching and there aren't many potential frontline starters in this Draft.

I don't think the Guardians will select a pitcher with the No. 1 overall pick, though it's not impossible. I could see Burns or Smith going as high as No. 2 to the Reds but No. 3 to the Rockies is a more realistic peak.

After Bazzana and Condon go off the board, the consensus would put Burns and Smith on a tier with Florida first baseman/left-hander Jac Caglianone, Wake Forest first baseman Nick Kurtz, West Virginia shortstop J.J. Wetherholt and Texas A&M outfielder Braden Montgomery. So the two pitchers likely will go somewhere between No. 3 and No. 8.

Wetherholt is toughest top talent to project. He ranked No. 1 on our preseason Top 100 but missed half the season with recurring hamstring injuries that have made it difficult to evaluate whether he can play shortstop at the next level. After winning the 2023 D-I batting title (.449), he has hit .356/.500/.663 with eight homers in 31 games and more than twice as many walks (29) as strikeouts (14).

It comes down to what individual clubs think about Wetherholt's persistent hamstring issues and his ability to stick at shortstop. If enough are scared off, he could get to the Nationals at No. 10. But on the other hand, if a team believes he's the same guy who was the No. 1 prospect entering the year, he might be a bargain in terms of talent and potential bonus savings relative to where he's picked.

Wetherholt probably will land between No. 4 (Athletics) and No. 8 (Angels). From his posts, it appears that @vetradrak0n is a Washington fan, so I'll tell him that the best prospect with a chance to get to No. 10 is Mississippi high school shortstop/outfielder Konnor Griffin. He has the best all-around tools and the highest ceiling in the Draft, though some teams question his hitting ability, which might knock him down a bit.

On the latest Pipeline Podcast, we did discuss who stands out as the best pitching prospect in the Minors now that Paul Skenes has joined the Pirates. If Sasaki had signed with a big league club during the offseason, he would be eligible by our standards (because he'd count toward an international bonus pool) and he'd be the easy choice as the best pitching prospect in the Minors.

With the fragility of pitching, current No. 1 prospect Jackson Holliday would be a better bet for a longer and more productive big league career than Sasaki. But because of the scarcity of arms, especially those as talented as Sasaki, more teams would consider Sasaki more valuable than Holliday.

A Japanese sensation since his fastball was clocked at 101 mph in high school, Sasaki went No. 1 overall in the 2019 Nippon Professional Baseball Draft. He has starred with the Chiba Lotte Marines for the last four seasons and hit 102 mph with his heater at the 2023 World Baseball Classic. His splitter is even more devastating than his fastball and his slider can be a plus pitch at times.

Sasaki would be subject to MLB's international bonus pool rules rather than be subject to open bidding unless Chiba Lotte waits to post him until after the 2026 season. But he has stated his desire to play in the United States in the near future, perhaps as early as next year.