Who is most affected by Betts' extension?

July 26th, 2020

’ record-setting extension with the Dodgers won’t necessarily have much of an impact on the 2020 season, as the '18 American League Most Valuable Player Award winner was already set to star for Los Angeles.

The deal, however, will have quite an effect on several teams and players in the coming years.

Betts became the latest superstar to sign a long-term deal over the past 18 months, joining Mike Trout, Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, Gerrit Cole, Nolan Arenado, Christian Yelich, Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg, all of whom inked contracts worth more than $215 million.

What does Betts’ extension mean for future free agents? What about the teams that dreamed of signing him? Or those rivals that now must deal with him on a regular basis for the rest of his career?

Here’s a look at those players and teams most impacted by Betts’ colossal contract.

1. Padres
This could really say “The rest of the National League West,” as all four teams must now contend with Betts for the next decade-plus.

But San Diego had been building a team it felt would challenge the Dodgers’ divisional reign, bringing in expensive free agents Machado and Eric Hosmer to help guide a young roster loaded with talent.

Perhaps Fernando Tatis Jr., Chris Paddack and MacKenzie Gore will join Machado as the core of a contender for years to come, but now that the Dodgers have locked up Betts for a dozen more years, the Padres’ task just got quite a bit more difficult.

2. George Springer
Springer was never likely to sign for the same type of money as Betts, but Betts’ extension thrusts Springer to the top of the free-agent outfield market. The Astros star might very well be the No. 1 free agent available this offseason, battling Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto for that distinction.

Springer and the Astros settled on a $21 million contract for 2020, his final year of arbitration eligibility. He’ll be entering his age-31 season, so his deal won’t be as lengthy as Betts’ extension, but Springer will be the clear-cut No. 1 outfield option in free agency. It’s not even close.

On the flip side, the Dodgers will no longer be a possible landing spot for Springer, taking away a potential big-market suitor.

3. Red Sox Nation
From the moment the Red Sox traded Betts to the Dodgers, many in Boston were buzzing with their dream scenario: Betts plays one season in Los Angeles, then signs a mega-deal to return to Fenway Park.

That dream is over.

Free agents returning to their old stomping grounds after a trade doesn’t happen much, but it can. The Yankees landed a four-player package (including Gleyber Torres) for Aroldis Chapman during the 2016 season, then re-signed the hard-throwing closer that winter. With Betts signed in L.A. through '32 (a trade could always happen down the road, though it feels unlikely), the Red Sox will have to look elsewhere for a star of his caliber. Perhaps Springer, a New England native, becomes a free-agent target.

4. Cody Bellinger
The reigning National League MVP is under team control for three more arbitration-eligible seasons, having set the first-year arb record with an $11.5 million deal this past offseason. Bellinger could continue to set arbitration records if his production remains at its current level, so locking in Betts as part of the Dodgers’ lineup should help his cause.

Although Bellinger should see his salary grow significantly during the next three offseasons, what happens when he becomes a free agent after the 2023 season? Betts will still have another nine years remaining on his contract, so will the Dodgers be willing to dole out another deal worth north of $300 million?

5. Corey Seager
Seager’s free agency will arrive after the 2021 season, so the Dodgers will have not only Betts’ mega-deal to consider when weighing a bid to retain Seager, but also Bellinger’s future.

The new collective bargaining agreement could also play into Seager’s free agency. Having given Betts a record-setting deal Wednesday, the Dodgers are unlikely to hand out another big extension to another player earlier than necessary, especially one who has missed more games (164) than he’s played (160) over the past two years.

6. Free-agent class after '21 season
There could be plenty of notable names in this star-studded class, including a slew of shortstops (Francisco Lindor, Javier Báez, Trevor Story, Carlos Correa and Seager), a trio of corner-infield sluggers (Kris Bryant, Freddie Freeman and Anthony Rizzo) and a quartet of aging arms (Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke) that could be headed to Cooperstown.

Betts’ path to his contract should be encouraging for the young stars entering or going through the arbitration process. Betts established new arbitration records in both his second and third eligible seasons, then signed the second-biggest deal in Major League history. It’s not unrealistic to think that Lindor or Bellinger could land a Betts-type deal (or more) at some point.

Will the Betts extension take Los Angeles out of the bidding for these free agents or any other prominent players who become available? Unlikely. While the Dodgers might not be major players in free agency after the 2020 season, the following offseason should be a different matter.

Los Angeles will have $67 million coming off the books with Kershaw, Kenley Jansen, Joe Kelly and Chris Taylor heading to free agency, not to mention Seager, who should get a raise from this year’s $7.6 million salary next winter as he enters his final arbitration-eligible season. There should be plenty of money to spend, though with Kershaw, Jansen and Seager all potentially hitting the market, there will be some holes to fill.