Predicting September champagne celebrations

September 4th, 2018

There are only three and a half weeks left in the MLB season. Crazy, right? This is your annual reminder that you really should start storing up all the sleep you can, because October is going to turn you into a sleepwalking zombie at work every day until November. Every moment counts. In fact, as soon as you finish reading this, you should take a nap.
September is always a busy month, so today, we sit down to try to help you schedule accordingly. As of Wednesday, no playoff spots have been clinched. But by Sept. 30, 10 will be. (Probably.) And if your team is one of those 10, you'll want to make sure to be watching when they nail down their postseason slot.
So, as we march down these final three-plus weeks, let's take a look at the standings, and the schedule, and see when we should expect each of the 10 races (the six divisions and the four Wild Cards) to be resolved, officially. When does everybody get to pop the corks? Let's call it a Champagne Countdown.
Wednesday, Sept. 12: Indians win American League Central
Opponent: at Rays

No one has been within seven games of Cleveland since late June, so even though the Indians are 17 games shy of the Red Sox, they'll be the first one to clinch. A week from today might be the ideal time to do it: It's a day game against Tampa Bay at Tropicana Field, and the Tribe has a day off before traveling back to Cleveland on Friday. That's a lot of time to sleep off all the champagne.

Thursday, Sept. 20: Red Sox win AL East
Opponent: at Yankees

If the Red Sox plan it right, they can finish off the Yankees right there in The Bronx in front of their home fans. The Sox have a three-game set at Yankee Stadium from Sept. 18-20, a tailor-made series for Boston to stream onto the field and celebrate on the enemy's turf. The Yanks will try to salvage at least one of these to avoid the indignity, but the schedule is setting up against them this year.

Friday, Sept. 21: Yankees win a Wild Card spot
Opponent: vs. Orioles

Here's the consolation prize, though if they sweep the Red Sox, they could actually celebrate nailing down a Wild Card spot during that series. After three games against one of the best teams in recent memory, the Yankees receive the gift of three games against one of the worst: The 2018 Baltimore Orioles. If the Yanks haven't nailed down a Wild Card spot -- though maybe not clinching home-field advantage yet -- by the end of the Red Sox series, they'll do it that night.

Monday, Sept. 24: A's win a Wild Card
Opponent: at Mariners

The Mariners are 5 1/2 games behind the A's entering play Tuesday, and they're just hoping to stay close and gain some ground in the final seven games of the year, the first three of which are home against Oakland. It's possible the A's will have already taken care of business by that point -- if you're an Oakland fan who wants to catch a clinching at home, the series the weekend before against Minnesota is your only chance -- but it feels more like cosmic justice will require the A's to do it in front of Seattle's home fans. You just hope Oakland does it in the opener, rather than making them wait out two more games, prolonging the misery.

Tuesday, Sept. 25: Cubs win National League Central
Opponent: vs. Pirates

The Brewers and Cardinals are just motivated enough in the Wild Card race to keep the Cubs honest down the stretch, but they're still likely to clinch their third consecutive NL Central title at Wrigley Field, and why not against the Pirates on Sept. 25? The Cards have dreamed on being within three of the Cubs heading into the final series of the year when they head to Wrigley, but that seems optimistic: If anyone is within three of the Cubs heading into that final weekend, it'll be the Brewers. But it probably won't be them, either.

Thursday, Sept. 27: Astros win AL West
Opponent: at Orioles

The A's have made a heroic charge of it, enough to make the Astros sweat a lot more than anyone ever thought they would. But the Astros are still the Astros, and they look to still be in a good position to wrap this up before the season's final weekend. Houston will have long since sewn up a Wild Card spot, and I'm guessing the Astros won't have a full celebration for that with the division still up for grabs, so expect this to be their party.

Friday, Sept. 28: Braves win NL East
Opponent: at Phillies

The Braves have been perfectly fine over the last month of the season, but they have benefitted considerably from the fades of the Phillies and (especially) the Nationals. If they can stay hot down the stretch, they can even put themselves in a position to host the NL Division Series against whoever survives the NL West scramble. Either way, clinching in Philadelphia -- in front of fans who will be elated just to have a chance at a sweep for a potential playoff spot -- will be a major checkmark for a franchise full of young players who are going to be hanging around October for many, many years to come.

OK, here's where it starts getting crazy. We have six teams scrambling for three spots: The Rockies, Dodgers and D-backs all battling for the NL West title and the Wild Card as a consolation prize, with the Brewers, Cardinals and Phillies scraping for a ticket, too. Here are the final weekend series involving all those teams:
STL at CHC
ATL at PHI
LAD at SF
ARI at SD
DET at MIL
WAS at COL
For the sake of discussion, we'll drop Philadelphia there: The Phillies seem, for now, a step behind everybody else. That puts four teams playing non-contenders and one (St. Louis) playing a hated rival who would love to stick it to them. So, let's start with:
Saturday, Sept. 29: Dodgers win the NL West
Opponent: at Giants

They wouldn't go through all this trouble, yanking their fans to and fro, back and forth, if they weren't going to win the division, would they? Put it this way: If you're another NL team, this is probably the team you don't want to emerge from the scrum. Tough luck, though, and with it, the added bonus of clinching the sixth consecutive championship in front of those Giants fans right there in AT&T Park. But that's not all for today.

Saturday, Sept. 29: Brewers win an NL Wild Card
Opponent: vs. Tigers

This is what the Brewers were aiming for when they made all those big offseason moves: Their first postseason appearance since 2011. The Brewers host the Tigers, one of the worst teams in baseball, while the rival Cardinals have to go to Wrigley. Milwaukee will take advantage by winning the first two and assuring that the NL Wild Card Game will be played at Miller Park. Get your tailgate spots right now, bright and early, before they're gone.

Sunday, Sept. 30: D-backs win an NL Wild Card
Opponent: at Padres

The scenario we imagine here: They're a game up on the Rockies and tied with the Cardinals heading into the final day. Both the D-backs and Rockies win, but the Cards, facing an inspired Cubs team at Wrigley Field, fall short, as the Cubs fly the W as "Go Cubs Go" rains on the demoralized Cardinals below. A Brewers-D-backs NL Wild Card Game would be a rematch of the 2011 NLDS, a terrific series few remember anymore.

Four races going down to the season's final weekend … that's all one can ever hope for. And it might even get better than that.