This story was excerpted from Adam Berry's Rays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
ST. PETERSBURG -- Ultimately, everything the Rays do comes down to one question: What can they do to win their first World Series?
“We're proud of reaching the postseason five [straight] years. We're proud of the success that has been maintained throughout the Rays era,” president of baseball operations Erik Neander said earlier this month. “Until you find a way to break through and win that last one, we're going to carry the same questions.
“That's why we do it. So it's a constant review process, a constant effort to figure out how to get better, and there's no hint of us thinking we've got anything figured out, because there's still steps that we need to take that we haven't -- and a lot of other people have.”
Here are five questions facing the Rays as their offseason work begins.
1) Who will they trade?
Neander noted during the Rays’ end-of-season press conference that they “have the ability” to bring back nearly their entire roster next year. Of course, keeping that group intact would drive the Rays’ payroll well past franchise-record territory, likely into the $120 million range.
Neander said he was “reasonably confident” the club could make that work “if we think that’s the best path to winning a World Series. … But we’ll see what the winter brings and how that all plays out. We’ll have that freedom and flexibility if we think it’s best.”
As they balance the present and future in terms of playoff probabilities and payroll commitments, it seems more likely the Rays will deal a few veterans this winter. Outfielder Manuel Margot (due $10 million as part of his contract extension) is the most obvious trade candidate, while starter Tyler Glasnow (set to earn a franchise-record $25 million next season) is the most interesting.
There are bound to be others in play given their massive and increasingly expensive class of arbitration-eligible players. Could Harold Ramírez be on the move? If Tampa Bay is moving forward with René Pinto as its top catcher, will it part with Christian Bethancourt? Would the Rays even consider dealing star outfielder Randy Arozarena?
2) What becomes of Wander?
For now, the Rays can only wait while Wander Franco, who finished the season on administrative leave, is investigated by Major League Baseball and authorities in the Dominican Republic regarding allegations of an inappropriate relationship with a minor.
There is no set timeline for the investigation, which began in August. Tampa Bay can’t say much during the ongoing investigation, either, with GM Peter Bendix answering a question about the All-Star shortstop’s status by saying the club is “always preparing for multiple different things.”
It’s a huge question, one that will affect the Rays’ future beyond just this offseason. But it’s also one they can’t yet answer themselves.
3) Do they need another starter?
Even if they keep Glasnow, the Rays would likely be looking at a season-opening rotation with him alongside Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale, perhaps with Zack Littell and Taj Bradley behind them depending on how they want to manage Shane Baz and his presumably limited workload coming back from Tommy John surgery.
Shane McClanahan won’t pitch next season, but rehabbing starter Jeffrey Springs could return in the second half. So could Drew Rasmussen, although it’s unclear what his role will be. It certainly seems like there’s room for another veteran arm in the rotation, especially if injuries continue to plague their pitching staff.
4) How will they sort out the infield?
They can bring back Yandy Díaz and Isaac Paredes at first and third base, with Brandon Lowe at second. Taylor Walls will have a role, whether he’s backing up around the infield (if Franco returns) or playing most every day at shortstop (if he doesn’t).
Top prospects Junior Caminero and Curtis Mead debuted down the stretch, but could both start next season in Triple-A? Jonathan Aranda seemingly has nothing left to prove in Durham, although his production hasn’t translated to the Majors. Is there room for him in the infield? What about Osleivis Basabe? Could they trade some of their organizational infield depth to address a need elsewhere?
5) Will they do anything different with October in mind?
It’s hard to reconcile the Rays’ remarkable regular-season success with their recent struggles in the postseason, including their current seven-game postseason losing streak. They’ve won only five multi-game postseason series in franchise history, two in 2008 and three in 2020, and came up short in the World Series on both occasions.
Winning in October comes down to some mix of talent, preparation, health, timing and good fortune. From a roster construction standpoint, is there anything the Rays can do to put themselves in position to find that mix when it matters most? Or is it just a matter of time?