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2007 Draft do-over: MadBum No. 1; Stanton a Buc

Only six actual first-rounders make cut, just two of top nine
June 7, 2017

The Devil Rays owned the No. 1 overall pick in the 2007 Draft, the third time in their first decade of play that they earned that distinction. They previously spent top choices on Josh Hamilton (1999), who never reached the big leagues with Tampa Bay and only became a superstar

The Devil Rays owned the No. 1 overall pick in the 2007 Draft, the third time in their first decade of play that they earned that distinction. They previously spent top choices on Josh Hamilton (1999), who never reached the big leagues with Tampa Bay and only became a superstar once he left via the Rule 5 Draft, and Delmon Young (2003), whose biggest contribution was bringing back Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett in a trade four years later.
The third time was a charm for the Devil Rays, however. Vanderbilt left-hander David Price was the consensus top prospect coming into the year, and he maintained that status right up until Draft day. Though Tampa Bay also kicked the tires on Georgia Tech catcher Matt Wieters and California high school third baseman Josh Vitters, it took Price on June 7 in the first baseball Draft broadcast live on TV.
:: 2017 MLB Draft coverage ::
If the now-Rays had to do it all over again, they could do slightly better than Price. Not that they're experiencing any buyer's remorse after he helped pitch them to the 2008 World Series, won a 2012 American League Cy Young Award and was part of the only four playoff teams in franchise history. But as you'll see below in our retrospective redraft 10 years later, there was a slightly better left-hander available.
Our picks are made with the benefit of hindsight and some guesswork as to how the remainder of careers will play out. Just six actual first-rounders made the cut for our do-over, including just two of the top nine choices. Only players who signed were considered, with Chris Sale (21st round, Rockies) the most notable 2007 draftee who opted not to turn pro.
Here's our take on how the clubs would redraft if given a do-over:
1. Devil Rays: Madison Bumgarner, LHP, South Caldwell HS (Hudson, N.C.)
(Actual pick: David Price, LHP, Vanderbilt. Bumgarner: first round, No. 10, Giants.)
Bumgarner gets the nod over Price because he's accomplished nearly as much in the Majors despite being three years younger and more so because he's been much better in the postseason, winning three World Series rings with the Giants. Bumgarner was the top prep southpaw available, though some teams worried about his low arm slot and whether he ever could develop an effective breaking ball. Spoiler alert: He did.
2. Royals: David Price, LHP, Vanderbilt
(Actual pick: Mike Moustakas, 3B, Chatworth, Calif., HS. Price: first round, No. 1, Devil Rays.)
Kansas City hoped to sign the best high school pitcher (Rick Porcello) or the top prep position player (Mike Moustakas), but couldn't get either to agree to palatable terms the night before the Draft. The Royals were prepared to take Josh Vitters until Moustakas had a change of heart and accepted a $4 million bonus. While he hasn't lived up to the expectations of being the No. 2 overall pick, he did make the All-Star Game and won the World Series in 2015.
3. Cubs: Josh Donaldson, C, Auburn
(Actual pick: Josh Vitters, 3B, Cypress, Calif., HS. Donaldson: supplemental first round, Cubs.)
Chicago did take Donaldson with its second pick, 48th overall, as an offensive-minded catcher. He was hitting just .217 in low Class A during his first full professional season when the Cubs shipped him to the Athletics in a trade for Rich Harden. Donaldson didn't make the Majors for good until mid-2012, then suddenly blossomed into a star in '13 and has been as good as any big leaguer other than Michael Trout over the past five seasons. Considered the best pure hitter in the high school ranks with power than ranked second behind that of Moustakas, Vitters batted just .121 in 99 big league at-bats.

4. Pirates: Giancarlo Stanton, 1B/OF, Notre Dame HS, Sherman Oaks, Calif.
(Actual pick: Daniel Moskos, LHP, Clemson. Stanton: second round, Marlins.)
A three-sport star who committed to Southern California and had an offer to walk on the Trojans' football team as wide receiver/defensive back, Stanton looked overmatched on the high school showcase circuit. Marlins area scout Tim McDonnell believed in him, however, and sold his club on taking Stanton in the second round. Passing up the more expensive Wieters to take Moskos became one of the more infamous picks of the decade, though the latter was a legitimate top-10 talent even if he'd only pitch 24 1/3 innings in the Majors.
5. Orioles: Freddie Freeman, 1B/RHP, El Modena HS, Orange, Calif.
(Actual pick: Matt Wieters, C, Georgia Tech. Freeman: second round, Braves.)
Freeman intrigued scouts with his low-90s fastball and hard slider, though he became the face of Atlanta's franchise as a sweet-swinging first baseman. Wieters got the largest up-front bonus in Draft history to that point ($6 million), and while he didn't become the superstar some projected, he did deliver four All-Star Game selections and two Gold Gloves in eight years in Baltimore.
6. Nationals: Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Douglas HS, Parkland, Fla.
(Actual pick: Ross Detwiler, LHP, Missouri State. Rizzo: sixth round, Red Sox.)
Rizzo slid to the sixth round because teams considered his $325,000 asking price exorbitant. The Red Sox met it because they liked his power, and they were immediately impressed by his better-than-expected approach, defense and makeup -- all traits that were quite evident as he led the Cubs to a World Series championship last year. Washington might have made a play for Moustakas or Wieters, but with both gone the Nats turned to Detwiler, who became the first 2007 draftee to reach the Majors, where he has bounced around among five clubs.

7. Brewers: Jason Heyward, OF, Henry County HS, McDonough, Ga.
(Actual pick: Matt LaPorta, 1B, Florida. Heyward: first round, No. 14, Braves.)
High school opponents pitched around Heyward so much that teams had a hard time evaluating him, but the local Braves knew him well and pounced on him at No. 14. Though he hasn't returned to the All-Star Game since his rookie year of 2010, he's been a mostly steady performer and defensive asset and like Rizzo helped the Cubs win the 2016 World Series. A two-time Southeastern Conference Player of the Year known for his power, LaPorta hit just 31 homers in part of four seasons, but he did help Milwaukee land Carsten Sabathia in a 2008 trade that resulted in a Wild Card berth.
8. Rockies: Corey Kluber, RHP, Stetson
(Actual pick: Casey Weathers, RHP, Vanderbilt. Kluber: fourth round, Padres.)
No one saw a future Cy Young Award winner or postseason hero in Kluber, who was thought to lack an out pitch and came with medical concerns (a screw in his pitching elbow to repair a stress fracture in high school). He was a great pick by San Diego, though it squandered the choice by sending him to Cleveland in a three-team deal for Ryan Ludwick in 2010. Weathers had one of the best fastballs in the Draft, but he blew out his elbow in the Arizona Fall League after the 2008 season and never made it past Double-A.
9. Diamondbacks: Rick Porcello, RHP, Seton Hall Prep, West Orange, N.J.
(Actual pick: Jarrod Parker, RHP, Norwell HS, Ossian, Ind. Porcello: first round, No. 27, Tigers.)
Porcello was a top-five talent whose demands in an era where MLB pressured teams to surpress bonuses dropped him to the bottom of the first round. Detroit drew the ire of the Commissioner's Office when it became the first club to blow well past MLB's recommendations that summer by signing him to a $7,000,519 big league contract (still the largest guarantee ever given a prep pitcher). Porcello has proven worth it, reaching the Majors at age 20, playing a key role on four playoff teams in his first eight years and winning the AL Cy Young Award in 2016. Parker won 25 games with the A's in 2012-13, but he had Tommy John surgery in '09 and '14 before fracturing his elbow in '15.
10. Giants: Jacob Arrieta, RHP, Texas Christian
(Actual pick: Bumgarner. Arrieta: fifth round, Orioles.)
A disappointing junior season at TCU and seven-figure asking price dropped Arrieta to the fifth round, where Baltimore gave him a round-record $1.1 million bonus. He struggled in six years with the Orioles organization but took off after going to the Cubs in a trade for Scott Feldman, winning the National League Cy Young Award in 2015 and a World Series in '16.
11. Mariners: Jonathan Lucroy, C, Louisiana-Lafayette
(Actual pick: Phillipe Aumont, RHP, Ecole du Versant, Gatineau, Quebec. Lucroy: third round, Brewers.)
Scouts thought Lucroy's offensive was well ahead of his defense, but he developed into an All-Star who played well in both phases of the game. Though Aumont would post a 6.80 ERA in 46 big league games, he helped Seattle as the centerpiece of the Cliff Lee trade with Philadelphia in 2009.
12. Marlins: Matt Wieters, C, Georgia Tech
(Actual pick: Matt Dominguez, 3B, Chatsworth, Calif., HS. Wieters: first round, No. 5, Orioles.)
Moustakas' high school teammate, Dominguez lived up to his reputation as the best prep defender available, but he never hit enough (.231/.273/.371) to hold down a regular job in the Majors.
13. Indians: Todd Frazier, 3B, Rutgers
(Actual pick: Beau Mills, 3B, Lewis-Clark State, Idaho. Frazier: supplemental first round, Reds.)
The scouting reports on Frazier were dead on: big power, questions about his ability to hit for average, adequate defensive tools for third base. Cleveland picked the wrong third baseman, because Mills, who set an NAIA record with 38 homers, topped out in Triple-A.
14. Braves: Jordan Zimmermann, RHP, Wisconsin-Stevens Point
(Actual pick: Heyward. Zimmermann: second round, Nationals.)
Zimmermann might have been a first-rounder if he had been easier to see, but he broke his jaw throwing batting practice during the preseason, had wisdom teeth pulled during the season and bad weather in Wisconsin erased more of his starts. He reached Washington by mid-2009 and made two All-Star teams before leaving as a free agent for Detroit, where he hasn't fared nearly as well.
15. Reds: Zack Cozart, SS, Mississippi
(Actual pick: Devin Mesoraco, C, Punxsutawney, Pa., HS. Cozart: second round, Reds.)
As with Frazier, Cincinnati scored with another college player who lived up to his scouting reports. Rated as the top college defender and as a so-so hitter with some pop, Cozart has been exactly that before breaking out at the plate this year. Mesoraco was an All-Star in 2015, but hip and shoulder injuries have limited him since.
16. Blue Jays: Danny Duffy, LHP, Cabrillo HS, Lompoc, Calif.
(Actual pick: Kevin Ahrens, 3B, Memorial HS, Houston. Duffy: third round, Royals.)
Duffy excited scouts by hitting 95 mph with his fastball, then needed seven years to make the big leagues for good before helping Kansas City win two AL pennants and one World Series. Ahrens earned Chipper Jones comparisons but never moved past Double-A.
17. Rangers: Mike Moustakas, 3B, Chatsworth (Calif.) HS
(Actual pick: Blake Beavan, RHP, Irving, Texas, HS. Moustakas: first round, No. 2, Royals.)
Though Beavan had a 91-96 mph fastball and the best slider among high schoolers, it translated into a 4.61 ERA in four seasons in the Majors. He also was part of a Cliff Lee trade, moving from Texas to Seattle in 2010.
18. Cardinals: Greg Holland, RHP, Western Carolina
(Actual pick: Pete Kozma, SS, Owasso, Okla., HS. Holland: 10th round, Royals.)
Holland showed some arm strength and toughness but not much else at Western Carolina, which is why he was available for $50,000 in the 10th round. He flew under the radar in the Minors, too, while honing a slider that made him a two-time All-Star before blowing out his elbow in 2015. Following Tommy John surgery that cost him 2016, Holland looks better than ever with the Rockies. He makes Kansas City the first team with three redraftees on this list.
19. Phillies: Tony Watson, LHP, Nebraska
(Actual pick: Joe Savery, LHP, Rice. Watson: ninth round, Pirates.)
Watson's fastball sat at 86-88 mph in his junior year, so he commanded just an $85,000 bonus in the ninth round. Now his slider approaches that velocity and his heater parks at 92-94, and he has been one of the game's most consistent lefty relievers. Add Savery to the long list of Rice pitchers who had injury problems. He actually gave up pitching and became a full-time position player in 2011 before his arm bounced back and he pitched briefly in Philadelphia.
20. Dodgers: Steve Cishek, RHP, Carson-Newman (Tenn.)
(Actual pick: Chris Withrow, RHP, Midland, Texas, HS. Cishek: fifth round, Marlins.)
A middle reliever who battled a sore elbow at a NCAA Division II program, Cishek had a low-90s sinker and became a big league closer when he improved his slider. Withrow was a classic projection high schooler who had success in Los Angeles' bullpen in 2013-14 before Tommy John surgery derailed his career.
21. Blue Jays: Derek Norris, C, Goddard (Kan.) HS
(Actual pick: J.P. Arencibia, C, Tennessee. Norris: fourth round, Nationals.)
Norris was hard to scout because an overthrow hit him in the head while he was sitting in the dugout early in his senior season, affecting his performance. He hit well and made an All-Star team with the Athletics after being part of the Giovany Gonzalez trade, but he hasn't been as productive since Oakland traded him to San Diego following the 2014 season. Arencibia spent six years in the Majors, three as a starter, but his shortcomings (hitting for average, receiving) overcame his strengths (power, arm).
22. Giants: Matt Moore, RHP, Moriarty (N.M.) HS
(Actual pick: Tim Alderson, Horizon HS, Scottsdale, Ariz. Moore: eighth round, Devil Rays.)
Relatively unknown as a New Mexico high schooler, Moore led the Minors in strikeouts in 2009 and '10 and earned acclaim as the game's best pitching prospect in '11, when he shut out the Rangers for seven innings in the AL Division Series opener -- his second big league start. An All-Star in 2013, he hasn't been the same since Tommy John surgery the next year, though there's still time for him to rise up this list.
23. Padres: Lucas Duda, 1B, Southern California
(Actual pick: Nick Schmidt, LHP, Arkansas. Duda: seventh round, Mets.)
One of the better high school power hitters in the 2004 crop, Duda batted just .275 with 11 homers in three years at Southern California. He refined his approach and added loft to his swing in pro ball, making himself into a legitimate home run threat for New York. Schmidt tore up his elbow after seven pro innings, had Tommy John surgery and peaked in Triple-A.
24. Rangers: Mitch Moreland, 1B/LHP, Mississippi State
(Actual pick: Michael Main, RHP/OF, DeLand (Fla.) HS. Moreland: 17th round, Rangers.)
A two-way star on Mississippi State's 2007 College World Series team, Moreland's uppercut swing created questions about his hitting ability and led some scouts to prefer him on the mound. Texas stole him in the 17th round for $60,000 and got a regular on five playoff clubs. Moreland is the lowest actual pick in our redraft. With a fastball that reached 97 mph, switch-hitting ability and well-above-average speed, Main was a first-round prospect as both a pitcher and outfielder. He couldn't climb past Double-A in six years as a pitcher with the Rangers or two years as an outfielder with the Marlins.
25. White Sox: Stephen Vogt, 1B, Azusa Pacific
(Actual pick: Aaron Poreda, LHP, San Francisco. Vogt: 12th round, Devil Rays.)
The second-best hitter in the NAIA after Mills, Vogt didn't catch regularly until his fifth year in pro ball, yet he willed himself into a two-time All-Star. He's the third Devil Ray on this list, though he went 0-for-25 with Tampa Bay before getting sold to Oakland. Poreda was a massive left-hander who could reach 98 mph, but his limited feel for pitching resulted in just 34 2/3 big league innings.
26. Athletics: Josh Collmenter, RHP, Central Michigan
(Actual pick: James Simmons, RHP, UC Riverside. Collmenter: 15th round, Diamondbacks.)
Collmenter's bad body and unorthodox arm action belied his results in college and again in the big leagues, where he has been effective as both a starter and a reliever since signing for $80,000 in the 15th round. A finesse right-hander whom scouts rated as having the best command in the 2007 Draft, Simmons began his pro career in Double-A but never advanced past Triple-A.
27. Tigers: Steven Souza, 3B, Cascade HS, Everett, Wash.
(Actual pick: Porcello. Souza: third round, Nationals)
Souza drew a 50-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs in 2010 and never hit better than .237 in a season until '12. He turned his career around and became a big league regular with Tampa Bay following a December 2014 three-team trade that landed Washington both Trea Turner and Joe Ross. Souza is the third National in our redraft, making them just one of three organizations with that many.
28. Twins: Nate Jones, RHP, Northern Kentucky
(Actual pick: Ben Revere, OF, Lexington, Ky., Catholic HS. Jones: fifth round, White Sox.)
Jones went from an NCAA Division II pitcher who flashed a 93-mph fastball and couldn't throw strikes to averaging 97 mph and finding the zone often enough to become a useful big league reliever, albeit with Tommy John surgery waylaying his 2014 and '15 seasons. Revere was a gut-feel pick and well-below-slot $750,000 signee for Minnesota who can hit for average and run but has shown little else in eight seasons in the Majors.
29. Giants: Sean Doolittle, 1B/LHP, Virginia
(Actual pick: Wendell Fairley, George County HS, Lucedale, Miss. Doolittle: supplemental first round, Athletics.)
Teams considered Doolittle a much better prospect as a first baseman, and he tried to make it as a hitter before multiple knee surgeries led to a move to the mound in 2011. He discovered a 93-95 mph fastball and became an All-Star in 2014, though shoulder injuries limited him in each of the next two years. A star wide receiver, Fairley never could translate his athleticism and power potential into production before fizzling out in Double-A.
30. Yankees: Tommy Hunter, RHP, Alabama
(Actual pick: Andrew Brackman, RHP, North Carolina State. Hunter: supplemental first round, Rangers.)
The second player from the 2007 Draft to appear in the big leagues, Hunter was a mediocre starter for four years before finding his niche as a reliever whose fastball jumped into the mid-90s in short stints. Brackman was a top-of-the-Draft prospect until he injured his elbow a month before the Draft, and it was an open secret that he'd need Tommy John surgery. The Yankees gave him the most inexplicable contract in Draft history anyway, giving him a $3.35 million bonus, $4.55 million in total guarantees and the potential to earn up to $13 million. He collected $5.95 million and pitched 2 1/3 innings in New York before getting released after the 2011 season.

Jim Callis is a reporter for Follow @jimcallisMLB on Twitter. Listen to him on the weekly Pipeline Podcast.