Offseason FAQ: What's to come for Red Sox?

November 5th, 2021

The World Series is over, which makes the Red Sox one of 30 teams ready to get down to business in the offseason. This should be an intriguing winter for a Boston team that notched 92 victories in 2021 and came two wins shy of the World Series.

Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom’s mission is to construct a club that can be a sustainable championship contender for the next many years.

Here is a primer for the Red Sox’s offseason.

Which players are free agents?
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, OF/1B/DH Kyle Schwarber, SS/2B José Iglesias, RHP Adam Ottavino, RHP Hansel Robles, OF/INF Danny Santana and 1B Travis Shaw.

Of this group, Rodriguez is by far the biggest storyline to follow. The lefty has spent his entire big league career with the Red Sox and had mixed results (13-8, 4.74 ERA) in 2021. Both sides definitely have mutual interest in a reunion, but it will come down to cost.

Schwarber declined his end of an $11.5 million mutual option for 2022 and will get a $3 million buyout from the Red Sox. Coming off arguably the best all-around offensive season of his career, Schwarber will be looking to test the market and get the security of a multi-year deal. The Red Sox have interest in bringing him back, and that interest will go to an even higher level if J.D. Martinez opts out.

Iglesias fit like a glove in his return to the organization in September, but the Red Sox will have to determine if there is an everyday job for him going forward. Ottavino was a dependable setup man in the first five months of the season, but he slumped after that. If the Red Sox think his dip was just a matter of fatigue, they might feel compelled to try to bring back the professional veteran.

Santana and Shaw are likely to move on. Robles could go in either direction.

Do any players have opt-out clauses?
For the third straight winter, star slugger J.D. Martinez has an opt-out. Unlike the previous two years, when Martinez decided his best course of action was to opt back in, he could well go the other way this year and become a free agent. Coming off a strong 2021 season, Martinez has one year and $19.375 million remaining on the five-year pact he signed with the Red Sox. With the possibility of the National League adding the DH, Martinez and agent Scott Boras might have confidence he can top that on the open market.

Which players have options?
C Christian Vázquez (club option), RHP Garrett Richards (club option) and LHP Martín Pérez (club option).

Picking up Vázquez’s $7 million club option seems all but a no brainer given how hard it is to find solid two-way catchers. This, even though Vázquez had a downturn offensively last season. Richards was inconsistent as a starter, but better in the bullpen. His option is worth $10 million and there’s a chance Boston will pick it up. It seems doubtful Pérez’s $6 million option will be exercised, considering his struggles in 2021.

Are any of the free agents likely to receive qualifying offers, and what is the deadline for that?
This season, the qualifying offer is worth $18.4 million. It seems likely that Rodriguez will receive a qualifying offer for two reasons. The first is that the Red Sox would like to have him back, and that price tag for one season is reasonable for a pitcher of Rodriguez’s ability. The second is that, by extending the qualifying offer, the Sox will receive Draft compensation for Rodriguez should he sign elsewhere.

If Martinez opts out, the Sox are sure to extend him a qualifying offer to secure Draft compensation in the event he signs elsewhere. Unlike Rodriguez, who might accept the qualifying offer to stay in Boston for one more season, there’s no chance Martinez will since it is worth less than the final year of his contract that he would be opting out of.

Which players are eligible for salary arbitration, and are any of them non-tender candidates?
Rafael Devers (3B), Hunter Renfroe (RF), Alex Verdugo (OF), Nick Pivetta (RHP), Christian Arroyo (INF), Josh Taylor (LHP), Ryan Brasier (RHP) and Kevin Plawecki (C) are all arbitration-eligible.

The expectation is that all eight of these players will be back with the Red Sox in 2021. Devers stands to get the biggest bump in salary, and it is well-deserved after the left-handed-hitting masher had another monster season. Renfroe was non-tendered by the Rays last winter, but the Red Sox aren’t about to do the same after he blasted 31 homers and had 96 RBIs in ’21. The others on this list were all key contributors to the club last season, and none of them are likely to earn a salary that would have a big impact on the club’s payroll.

Who needs to be added to the 40-man roster this winter to avoid the Rule 5 Draft, and do they have a crunch for roster spots?
There are six Top 30 Red Sox prospects as rated by MLB Pipeline that must be added to the roster to avoid being selected in the Rule 5 Draft. They are as follows, with their club prospect ranking in parentheses:

SS Jeter Downs (No. 5), RHP Brayan Bello (No. 6), OF Gilberto Jimenez (No. 10), RHP Josh Winckowski (No. 19), RHP Thaddeus Ward (No. 20) and RHP Kutter Crawford (No. 23).

If so, how might that be resolved, and when does that need to be set?
With the roster at 35 players, the Sox have room for five of the above six prospects to be protected by the Rule 5 Draft. However, there could be a pinch if the team adds players via trade or free agency before that. The deadline that protects prospects from the Rule 5 Draft is Dec. 1. These deadlines will happen as scheduled because they are covered by the current collective bargaining agreement, which expires on Dec. 1.

What kind of help do they need and will they be active in free agency? Who might they target?
Bullpen arms appear to be the biggest need for the Red Sox. There are a couple of intriguing high-end closers on the market in Raisel Iglesias and Kenley Jansen. However, Bloom doesn’t always go for the glitzy names and could be more likely to look at some of the best setup men on the market, including Astros righty Kendall Graveman.

Second base always seems to be a spot of fluidity for the Red Sox, but they could change that if they make a run at free agent Marcus Semien, who is coming off a monster season with Toronto.

Who might they be willing to trade?
Right-handed-hitting first baseman Bobby Dalbec, who had an up-and-down rookie season, could be a logical trade candidate. Keep in mind that Triston Casas, who also plays first base and is the team’s No. 2 prospect, could be ready to help the big league club by midseason.