Who has the edge? Reds-Braves pos.-by-pos.

September 30th, 2020

The Braves had the second-highest scoring offense in the Major Leagues, one teensy run behind the Dodgers. Meanwhile, the Reds rotation had the third-best ERA (3.50) in the NL. To cut to the chase, there’s the matchup to watch in this NL Wild Card Series. 

The Reds have a potential NL Cy Young Award winner in right-hander Trevor Bauer. The Braves have the probable NL Most Valuable Player in Freddie Freeman and two others -- Marcell Ozuna and Ronald Acuña Jr. -- who are likely to receive votes as well.

As for the history, there’s plenty. The Reds are back in the postseason for the first time since 2013, having not won a series since 1995. 

The Braves are always in the playoffs, or so it seems, with 19 appearances in the last 30 seasons. However, while the Braves just won the NL East for a third straight year, they haven’t won a postseason series since 2001. 

Here’s the two teams stack up, position by position:

Catcher
This position could hardly be more evenly matched. Reds catchers may have a defensive edge, with Tucker Barnhart leading MLB catchers in Defensive Runs Saved with nine. Otherwise, it’s close. Reds catchers (Barnhart and Curt Casali) were second in the NL in homers and fourth in OPS while Braves catchers (Travis d’Arnaud and Tyler Flowers) were second in OPS and tied for third in homers. d’Arnaud had a 1.026 OPS against right-handed pitching and could start every game against a right-handed rotation. Casali had a 1.067 OPS against lefties and figures to start Game 1 against Max Fried.

Advantage: Braves

First base
Freddie Freeman and Joey Votto are two of the best players of their generation, but in very different places in their careers. Let’s begin with Wins Above Replacement: Freeman’s 2.9 was the second highest in the NL (behind Mookie Betts) while Votto’s -0.2 was a career low. Freeman is the NL MVP frontrunner after a season that produced a career-high 1.102 OPS and .462 OBP. He led the NL in doubles (23) and runs (51).

Votto’s 14th season included a career-low .354 OBP as well as an .800 OPS (137 points below his career average).

Advantage: Braves

Second base
Ozzie Albies finished strong after returning in September from more than a month on the injured list with a bruised wrist. He hit .338 in the Braves’ final 18 games with five home runs and a .953 OPS. If he’s completely healthy again, the Braves believe he can be the guy who hit 43 doubles and 23 homers in 2019. Mike Moustakas hit seven home runs, tied for second among NL second basemen, and had a nice offensive finish, hitting .323 in the final eight games.

Advantage: Braves

Shortstop
Dansby Swanson led Major League shortstops with 10 DRS, and his 2.6 WAR was fourth highest among all NL position players, trailing only Betts, Freeman and Manny Machado. His .809 OPS was a career high. Reds manager David Bell went back to veteran Freddy Galvis, who responded with a solid closing week after losing the job to 22-year-old Jose Garcia. Both figure to play, Garcia possibly as a defensive replacement at short or second.

Advantage: Braves

Third base
Eugenio Suarez’s 15 home runs was second to Machado among NL third basemen and was the bright spot in a season in which he batted .202 with a 29-percent strikeout rate. The Braves will stick with Austin Riley despite the signing of veteran Pablo Sandoval. Riley struggled offensively down the stretch, hitting .239 in September.

Advantage: Reds

Left field 
Adam Duvall’s 16 home runs were tied for third most in the NL, and his .833 OPS was reflective of a solid overall season. Per Statcast, his .660 slugging percentage on fastballs was eighth highest in MLB. Shogo Akiyama was exactly what the Reds hoped he’d be in becoming the everyday left fielder. He had a .456 OBP in September as the Reds won 16 of 25 to nail down a postseason berth. 

Advantage: Reds

Center field
Acuña’s sore left wrist is a concern for the Braves after a regular season in which he was ninth in WAR in the NL (2.1) and fifth in OPS (.987) along with 14 home runs and eight stolen bases. Brian Goodwin and Nick Senzel shared center for the Reds in September, and neither took off, leaving Bell with an interesting Game 1 decision.

Advantage: Braves

Right field 
Nick Castellanos hit .185 with four home runs in September for a disappointing finish to a season that began with him batting .340 on Aug. 7. The Braves have a similar storyline at this position as Nick Markakis, who was hitting .368 at the end of August, batted .164 with no home runs in September. 

Advantage: Reds

Designated hitter
Marcell Ozuna was one of the best free-agent signings of the offseason. He led the NL with 18 home runs and 56 RBIs and was third with a 1.067 OPS. Jesse Winker had an excellent season despite a .104 batting average in September. He still finished with a solid .932 OPS and 12 home runs.

Advantage: Braves

Rotation
Bauer is the NL Cy Young frontrunner after leading the league with a 1.73 ERA, 0.795 WHIP and 276 ERA+. He allowed five earned runs over five September starts and averaged seven innings a start. The Reds have two excellent veteran starters behind him in Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray. The Braves are plenty confident in their No. 1 starter, lefty Max Fried, whose 3.3 percent barrel rate was the second lowest in the NL (to Hyun Jin Ryu’s 3.2 percent; Gray was tied for third at 3.7 percent). Fried departed his last start after one inning with a sore ankle, but is said to be fine for the postseason. After that, the Braves will go with a pair of 22-year-olds -- Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright -- who have 18 career starts between them. Both have shown flashes of dominance in September, and there’s no way of knowing how they’ll react to the moment.

Advantage: Reds

Bullpen
The Braves' bullpen has been one of the deepest and best all season, although Chris Martin’s injury could take a quality arm out of the equation. They’re second to the Brewers with a 2.74 ERA and fifth in WHIP (1.28). The Reds’ ‘pen’s 4.38 ERA doesn’t reflect how they finished the season with Raisel Iglesias, Amir Garrett and Lucas Sims all pitching well. But Atlanta lines up Darren O’Day, AJ Minter, Chad Greene and perhaps Martin in front of closer Mark Melancon. That depth is especially important due to the youth of the Atlanta rotation.

Advantage: Braves