This story was excerpted from Adam Berry’s Rays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
ST. PETERSBURG -- The good news for the Rays: They won’t see the Orioles again until Baltimore returns to Tropicana Field for a three-game series Aug. 9-11.
The bad news: The Orioles just pulled off a rare four-game sweep that starter Ryan Pepiot may have best described as “a kick in the face” for the Rays. They’ve lost 13 of their last 19 games, falling four below .500.
As veteran Amed Rosario said afterward, it’s behind them now. All they can do is move forward. But we can look back first.
Here are four takeaways from the past four days.
1. There’s a clear gap between these teams
Some games might have felt close at times, but all four were ultimately decided by at least three runs. In their seven meetings over the past 11 days, six of them won by Baltimore, the Orioles outscored the Rays, 40-17.
The Rays are 15 games behind the American League East-leading Yankees. Their minus-65 run differential suggests they’re fortunate to be only four games out of the third AL Wild Card spot, albeit with four teams ahead of them.
Put simply, the Orioles (43-22) have been more consistent in every phase of the game, which is why they’re currently operating at a different level than the Rays (31-35). Their starting pitching has been more reliable. Their bullpen has recorded the outs they need. Their lineup has presented more of a challenge. Their defense has been cleaner and occasionally more spectacular.
“They’re hungry. They're a tough team to play against,” Rosario said through communications director Elvis Martinez. “They're very good. You’ve got to tip your cap to them.”
2. The home run disparity matters
The Rays’ knack for launching longballs played a huge part in their hot start last season, and it was hard to shake that thought as the Orioles mashed clutch homers all weekend while the Rays were shut down by Kyle Bradish on Saturday, then similarly stymied by Grayson Rodriguez on Sunday, not to mention Orioles ace Corbin Burnes on Monday.
Meanwhile, the Orioles repeatedly demonstrated their ability to change games with one swing of the bat. They’ve hit 104 home runs this season, most in the Majors. The Rays have hit the fewest, with 50. Last season, the Rays were sixth with 230 homers. It’s a staggering drop-off.
The Rays own an MLB-worst minus-38 home run differential on the year. They were out-homered, 9-2, in the series. They’ve out-homered their opponent just once in their last 19 games: May 30 against the A’s. Overall, they are 8-2 when hitting more homers than their opponent, 16-11 when the homer totals are even and 7-22 when being out-homered.
3. The urgency is real
The July 30 Trade Deadline is seven weeks away, so it’s too early to start labeling buyers and sellers, especially with three Wild Card spots and much of the league bunched together. But president of baseball operations Erik Neander acknowledged before Friday’s series opener that there was “some urgency” for the Rays, noting the amount of ground they have to make up in the standings.
The Rays’ actions on Friday backed up that point. Rather than playing the asset-management game, they designated Harold Ramírez for assignment upon reinstating Taylor Walls from the 60-day injured list. (More on those moves here.) They prioritized keeping what they felt to be their strongest position player group -- specifically on defense, a major flaw the first two months -- over preserving organizational depth.
How they play the next few weeks will determine the moves they make in late July. But it’s important they right the ship quickly and dramatically, especially with the Majors’ second most difficult remaining schedule ahead.
4. Health is no longer the (main) issue
There’s no getting around who this team is missing. Shortstop Wander Franco remains on administrative leave. Shane McClanahan isn’t expected to pitch until 2025. Jeffrey Springs is making rehab starts. Drew Rasmussen is throwing bullpens. Top prospect Junior Caminero is on the Minor League injured list.
But otherwise, this is about as healthy as the Rays have been in quite some time. When reliever Colin Poche returned on Saturday, it left five pitchers on their Major League injured list: Springs, Rasmussen, McClanahan, Jacob Waguespack (who was in Triple-A) and Richard Lovelady (acquired last month).
More importantly, this is basically the group the Rays expected to have at this point of the season when they were heading into Spring Training. They have enough depth to jettison Ramírez and keep potential contributors such as Shane Baz, Jonathan Aranda and Curtis Mead in Triple-A for the time being. It’s on the group they have to get it right.
“I keep saying we've got to play better baseball. We're capable,” manager Kevin Cash said Monday night. “We're just not putting it all together quite yet.”