The staggering numbers behind Acuña's push for baseball history

May 21st, 2023

is doing it all.

The Braves right fielder, fully operational again nearly two years after a horrific knee injury, is authoring the sort of monster season that not only wins you an MVP Award but etches your name in history. We’ve only recently passed the quarter mark, but here are the categories in which Acuña has at least a share of the NL or MLB lead:

  • 43 runs (1st in MLB)
  • 61 hits (1st in MLB)
  • 18 steals (1st in NL)
  • 1.042 OPS (1st in NL)
  • 179 OPS+ (1st in NL)^
  • 107 total bases (1st in MLB)
  • 3.1 WAR (1st in MLB, per Baseball Reference)^

^Entering Saturday's games

“He’s the best player I’ve ever seen,” Braves pitcher Spencer Strider recently said of Acuña. “I don’t know what else there is to say [about his production]. Words can’t really do it justice. He’s the best player in the game right now and I’m just glad he’s on our team.”

Of all the gaudy numbers above, the stolen bases stand out. Acuña is four ahead of the Marlins’ Jazz Chisholm Jr. (now on the injured list) and the Pirates’ Ji Hwan Bae and has a chance to literally run away with the NL title. Thanks in part to the new rules and a healthy knee, Acuña is currently on pace for roughly 65 thefts, which would be the most in a season since Juan Pierre swiped 68 bags for the 2010 White Sox.

But when you combine all that with a bat that has been rocketing balls into the stratosphere all season, that’s when you really get something special. It’s extremely rare for any player to exhibit this sort of power-speed combo, and that means Acuña has a golden opportunity to accomplish some feats that precious few in baseball history can match.

Leading in steals and OPS

Rickey. Willie. They are two of the iconic names in baseball history. Perhaps Ronald could one day join them.

Here are the only two players to lead their league (AL or NL) in both stolen bases and OPS in the same season, since integration (1947), per the Elias Sports Bureau:

  • Rickey Henderson (A’s): Led 1990 AL with 65 SB, 1.016 OPS
  • Willie Mays (Giants): Led 1958 NL with 31 SB, 1.002 OPS
  • Willie Mays (Giants): Led 1957 NL with 38 SB, 1.034 OPS^

^Note: Some sources, such as Baseball Reference, show Mays losing the 1957 NL OPS title to the Cardinals’ Stan Musial, 1.034 to 1.033, due to an issue with Mays’ walk total. Elias, which is MLB’s official statistician, has Mays at 1.034 as well.

Two other players managed to lead their league in that pair of stats since the start of the Live Ball Era in 1920. But in addition to taking place before integration, both have notable caveats attached. Snuffy Stirnweiss of the 1945 Yankees played in a league that had lost a number of players to World War II military service, including three of the top 10 AL OPS finishers from 1944. And Chuck Klein of the 1932 Phillies played in the absurdly hitter-friendly environs of the Baker Bowl, where he batted .423/.464/.799. (His NL-leading SB total was also a mere 20).

So Henderson and Mays are the closest parallels to what Acuña is doing. And hey, when you’re in the exclusive company of two inner-circle Hall of Famers -- the all-time stolen base king and arguably the sport’s greatest all-around player -- that’s always nice.

It goes without saying that many challenges await Acuña over the next four-plus months. He’ll have to stay healthy and avoid prolonged slumps. But is there any particular reason to think he can’t join this list? After all, he already has one NL stolen base title to his credit (37 in 2019), and only the Cardinals' Nolan Gorman (1.032) is within 80 points of him in the NL OPS race at present. Plus, nothing in his underlying numbers this year suggests he is overperforming.

Acuña’s actual vs. expected^ stats, 2023 (through Friday)

  • Batting average: .347 actual, .355 expected
  • Slugging percentage: .613 actual, .705 expected
  • Weighted on-base average (wOBA): .441 actual, .483 expected

^Expected stats based on quality of contact, strikeouts and walks

Leading in steals and total bases

When you’re batting nearly .350 and hitting for power, you are going to rack up a lot of total bases. Therefore, it’s no surprise that Acuña is leading with Majors with 107 of them.

So, how long has it been since a player finished first in that category, in addition to steals? Well … not long at all, as it turns out. Trea Turner did it just two years ago for the Nationals and Dodgers, when he paced the NL with 319 total bases and 32 steals (the lowest AL- or NL-leading SB total in a full season since 1962). Turner also won the batting title that year (.328) and popped a career-high 28 homers.

But before that, nobody had managed that feat since integration, with Stirnweiss and Klein again the only other Live Ball Era examples, per Elias. Once more, Acuña could find himself in rare air.

Leading in steals and home runs

You likely already know that Acuña is in hot pursuit of the first 40-homer, 40-steal campaign since Alfonso Soriano did it in 2006. He just missed back in 2019 (41 homers, 37 steals), but this time the stars just might align.

Not only is Acuña on pace for a 40-65 combo, but his power swing is just getting revved up. After going deep three times over his first 24 games, he has done it eight times in his past 21 contests, including a streak of four straight that ended Wednesday. Plus, these are not wall-scrapers. Acuña’s eight “no-doubt” homers (judged by Statcast to have gone out in all 30 parks) ranks second in MLB to the Twins’ Joey Gallo, and his averages of 437 feet and 111.5 mph both rank first (minimum five HR).

Still, Acuña will have his work cut out for him in this particular chase. A dozen other NL hitters also have 10 or more homers, and the Mets’ Pete Alonso (MLB-high 17) swats dingers with great ease.

But what if Acuña could eke out a home run title while maintaining his lead in steals? Well, it would be more rare than if he reaches 40-40. Nobody has done it since Klein in 1932, and as noted, that came with just 20 steals and a homer title aided significantly by his home environment.

Before that, you have to go all the way back to the Dead Ball Era, when Ty Cobb pulled it off in 1909 without hitting a single ball over the fence. (All nine of his homers were of the inside-the-park variety).

In other words, not exactly akin to Acuña, whose early exploits in 2023 have put him on a path toward history.