Inbox: Scouting the top of the 2021 Draft

December 3rd, 2020

The Draft is on my mind because Jonathan Mayo and I are making our 2021 Top 100 list and checking it twice, writing scouting reports as we prepare for its release next week. Readers have some Draft questions they needed answered, so let's get to them ...

When Jonathan and I staged a 10-pick mock draft in this week's MLB Pipeline Podcast, our first three selections were Texas high school shortstop Jordan Lawlar, Vanderbilt right-hander Kumar Rocker and UCLA shortstop Matt McLain. Lawlar and McLain have comps who quickly come to mind, while Rocker is more difficult.

Because he's a five-tool prep shortstop from the Dallas area, Lawlar gets likened to Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals, No. 2 overall in 2019), though Witt had a stronger arm and more advanced instincts. As a smaller middle infielder with outstanding bat-to-ball skills and plus speed, McLain is similar to Nick Madrigal (White Sox, No. 4 in 2018) but has more pop and a better chance to play shortstop.

Rocker can run his fastball into the upper 90s and has a wipeout slider, which is reminiscent of Max Meyer (Marlins, No. 3 overall in 2020), but at 6-foot-4 and 255 pounds he has four inches and 60 pounds on Meyer. Alek Manoah (Blue Jays, No. 11 in 2019) had the most comparable build at 6-foot-6 and 260 pounds but his stuff wasn't as good as Rocker's. There's just not an easy parallel to Rocker in the last three Drafts -- unless you want to compare him to the high school version of himself in 2018.

Wood, an outfielder from IMG Academy (Bradenton, Fla.), is one of my favorite players in the Draft. When he started blowing up at showcases this summer, I couldn't understand why he hadn't previously been regarded as a first-round talent. He definitely is now.

There may not be a player in this Draft with a better combination of athleticism and physicality than Wood. He's a 6-foot-7, 230-pounder with a chance for solid and maybe plus tools across the board. He combines feel to hit, left-handed power, speed with instincts on the bases and in center field, and a strong arm.

The strength of the vastly improved Tigers farm system is pitching, though they did stock up on hitters (starting with No. 1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson) in the 2020 Draft. Teams picking near the top always should take whomever they deem the best available player, regardless of position or price tag, so Detroit should grab a pitcher at No. 3 if he offers the most talent.

At this point, it's a 50-50 proposition as to whether the best option at No. 3 will be a bat or an arm. Position-player possibilities include Lawlar, McLain, Miami catcher Adrian del Castillo and Florida outfielder Jud Fabian. Tempting pitchers include Rocker and fellow Southeastern Conference right-handers Jaden Hill (Louisiana State) and Jack Leiter (Vanderbilt).

No high school pitcher went in the first 10 picks in the last two Drafts. Mick Abel (Phillies, No. 15 in 2020) and Quinn Priester (Pirates, No. 18 in 2019) were the earliest prep arms selected the last two years, though both Ryan Weathers (Padres, No. 7) and the unsigned Carter Stewart (Braves, No. 8) factored into the top 10 in 2018.

Calvary Christian Academy (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.) right-hander Andrew Painter, the best high school pitcher in the 2021 class, is talented enough to potentially crack the top 10. He's a 6-foot-7, 230-pounder who can reach 96 mph with little effort, backs up his fastball with three solid secondary offerings (slider, curveball, changeup) and provides plenty of strikes.