Would Soto be worth the cost to Cards?

July 21st, 2022

This story was excerpted from John Denton’s Cardinals Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Cardinals fans watching Monday's T-Mobile Home Run Derby likely experienced a wide range of emotions throughout the contest.

On the one hand, there likely was a bit of sadness stirred inside every Cardinals fan knowing that legendary slugger Albert Pujols is getting closer to the finish line of his Hall of Fame career. Just to offer one more reminder of his historic place in the game, the 42-year-old Pujols conjured up enough greatness to eliminate the event’s top seed, Kyle Schwarber.

On the other hand, Cardinals fans had to be tingling with excitement about a future that might include 23-year-old superstar Juan Soto wearing the birds on the bat across his chest in the very near future. In something of a symbolic passing of the torch, Soto ended Pujols’ storybook run through the Derby and went on to win the title.

Cardinals fans are likely now frothing at the mouth at the swirl of rumors that have their franchise at the top of the heap when it comes to potentially landing Soto, who is likely soon to be headed out of Washington following reports of him declining a $440 million contract extension from the Nationals.

The Cardinals are theoretically at the top a growing list of suitors -- one that includes the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees and White Sox -- because they possess the combination of promising Minor League talent, proven young MLB future standouts and a payroll large enough to absorb Soto and the king’s ransom that agent Scott Boras will assuredly demand.

The question here isn’t whether the Cardinals should kick the tires on a possible Soto acquisition. The question is this: Even as great as Soto is -- potentially Pujols great -- would he be worth the enormous cost that it would take to get him?

Any team in baseball would be better adding a young talent whose career trajectory so far parallels that of Ted Williams. And with Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Pujols protecting Soto in the lineup, pitchers would have to pitch to him -- unlike this season in Washington -- and his already impressive production likely would soar to another stratosphere.

The Cardinals have a greater need for pitching than a big bat, but upon adding Soto, they would instantly join the Mets, Dodgers, Yankees and Astros as one of the favorites to win it all. And because Soto is so jaw-droppingly dynamic, he just might make the Redbirds the heavy favorites to land a 12th championship.

Yes, flags fly forever, but so, too, does the shame and sting of dealing away a top prospect. Candidly, Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak still gets sick to his stomach every time he thinks back to swinging and missing on Christian Yelich and Giancarlo Stanton and ultimately settling for Marcell Ozuna in 2018 when that price was right-hander Sandy Alcantara. Mozeliak was totally justified in making that trade at the time when the Cards were desperate for some offensive firepower, and back then the organization had Jack Flaherty rated ahead of Alcantara. Now, Mozeliak likely cringes every time he sees Alcantara strike out a slew of batters and/or go deep into games for the Marlins.

Everyone goes into the restaurant wanting to order the surf and turf until they understand what “market price” means. To get Soto in St. Louis -- where he would likely get the clubhouse dressing stall in between Yadier Molina and Pujols -- the cost will be exorbitant … as in lobster, filet and the finest wine exorbitant.

The franchise’s top four prospects, per MLB Pipeline -- Jordan Walker, Matthew Liberatore, Ivan Herrera and Masyn Winn -- would simply be the conversation starter. Others -- such as Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader and/or Andre Pallante -- would likely need to be included. Take one of those top prospects out of play and the Nats would likely demand five-tool outfielder Dylan Carlson.

Sure, the short-attention-span, instant-gratification crowd says go for Soto now. But how about in three years when the 6-foot-5 hitting machine Walker is contending for NL MVP Awards? Or when Winn is doing his best Shohei Ohtani impression as a shortstop/100 mph-throwing reliever?

The Cardinals have been able to stay consistently viable for years because of the success Mozeliak and director of scouting Randy Flores have had in mining the MLB Draft for young talent. Would it be worth putting a tourniquet on the lifeblood of the franchise for potentially just 2 1/2 years of control of Soto? Would a franchise that refused to match the Angels' offer of $240 million for Pujols 11 years ago be obligated to shell out $500 million for Soto after surrendering such a bounty?

And what if the Nats are insistent on including struggling pitcher Patrick Corbin and his $70 million in remaining salary in the Soto deal? The Cardinals do have Adam Wainwright, Corey Dickerson, T.J. McFarland, Pujols and Molina -- roughly the equivalent of $40 million in contracts -- coming off the books. But they must, you know, still fill out a roster in 2023.

There’s a strong sense now in St. Louis that the Cardinals should “go for it,” with Pujols and Molina retiring and Wainwright likely not far behind. Momentum is swelling that the franchise should do everything in its power to ensure those franchise legends one more deep run in the playoffs. It all brings up the debate sports fans and franchises have argued for decades: Is the joy of a championship greater than the misery that could come after all the confetti has been swept away? See: The Nats in 2019 and beyond.

Clearly, the long-term viability of the Cardinals as a consistent contender is at stake. Get this one right and the Cards might have the perfect Pujols replacement in Soto. Hit this one on the sweet spot and St. Louis could crush a home run as majestic as Soto’s 520-foot blast in the 2021 Home Run Derby or his 482-foot cloud in this year’s Derby. But get it wrong, in essence swinging and missing, and they will almost certainly be paying a steep cost for years to come.