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The World Series will soon come to an end, meaning that the baseball world will firmly turn its gaze toward the 2023 season, with a busy offseason of moves set to materialize just around the corner. In this edition of the Twins Beat Newsletter, we’ll look at the nitty-gritty of the task that lies ahead for the Twins.
Which players are free agents?
The big free agent-to-be is shortstop Carlos Correa, who declared his intent to opt out of the remaining two years of his three-year, $105.3 million contract to Puerto Rican newspaper El Nuevo Día. Otherwise, there are only two core players bound for free agency: catcher Gary Sánchez and right-handed reliever Michael Fulmer, who was acquired as a rental at the Trade Deadline.
Are any of them likely to receive qualifying offers?
The deadline for teams to tender eligible free agents the qualifying offer is five days following the conclusion of the World Series. Sánchez is the only player eligible, and he won’t get one.
Which players have options?
The Twins have four club options that will require decisions by five days following the conclusion of the World Series -- and none of them will be particularly tough calls. For starters, it’s a no-brainer for them to exercise their option for Sonny Gray at $12.7 million to serve as the anchor of the starting rotation.
Otherwise, expect the Twins to quickly decline their options for Miguel Sanó ($2.75 million buyout of a $14 million option), Dylan Bundy ($1 million buyout of an $11 million option) and Chris Archer ($750,000 buyout of the team’s half of a $10 million mutual option).
Who might be a non-tender candidate?
This year’s deadline for teams to tender contracts for 2023 to their pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players will be Nov. 18. Four players in that pool could be non-tender candidates, highlighted by third baseman Gio Urshela, who had a productive season on both sides of the ball but will be arbitration-eligible for a fourth time and due for a raise to an estimated $8.45 million, as projected by Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
The other major decision is with reliever Emilio Pagán, whose results (4.43 ERA, seven blown saves) never matched the quality of his stuff. He’s projected to earn $4.25 million. Others on the bubble are Kyle Garlick (estimated $980,000) and oft-injured reliever Cody Stashak (estimated $980,000).
Who needs to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason to avoid the Rule 5 Draft?
Their most prominent Rule 5 eligible player is organizational No. 14 prospect Edouard Julien, who slashed .300/.441/.490 with 17 homers and 19 steals in Double-A this season.
Other Top 30 prospects in this space include right-hander Casey Legumina (No. 27), outfielder Michael Helman (No. 29) and outfielder Misael Urbina, the organization’s No. 8 prospect -- though Urbina is unlikely to be taken since he’s in Class A. Potentially interesting eligible pitchers include Brent Headrick, Cody Laweryson and Kody Funderburk. The Twins shouldn’t have much trouble getting their roster down to size for whatever they need.
What kind of help do they need and will they be active in free agency? Who might they target?
The Twins need a starting shortstop and a backup catcher -- but beyond that, they largely have carte blanche to do as they please, with no huge needs and plenty of payroll flexibility. They have a ton of starting rotation depth and even the makings of a young but solid bullpen, assuming health (which, to be fair, can be a dangerous assumption).
If the Twins don’t make the commitment to a star-level shortstop, the stopgap options on the market are Elvis Andrus and José Iglesias. If they want to try for a bigger splash on the pitching market, the likes of Carlos Rodón, Clayton Kershaw and Jacob deGrom highlight the top of the pack and might be available on relatively shorter deals.
Who might they be willing to trade?
Considering the depth of left-handed power bats in the corner outfield, the Twins could look for suitors for Max Kepler, who can slide to center field and could be pitched as a buy-low candidate ahead of the shift restrictions coming for the 2023 season. The same goes for Urshela if the Twins tender him a contract, considering their infield depth.