ATLANTA -- Mitch Keller was the center of trade talks all July, with plenty of teams inquiring about what it would take to land one of the biggest fish in the Trade Deadline pond. The Pirates ended up keeping the right-hander, but it is all but certain that his name is going to be brought up plenty this winter.
There’s no guarantee that Keller will get dealt this offseason, but where there’s smoke, there’s usually fire. It means that there is a very decent chance that Friday at Truist Park was going to be his last outing as a Pirate.
If it is, he at least went out fighting. Keller was wild, walking five over 3 2/3 innings, but he only let one run score. Mix in a multihomer performance by Spencer Horwitz and a Tommy Pham round-tripper, and the Pirates were able to win, 9-3, over the Braves.
And if it was the last one, well, it wasn’t really on the pitcher’s radar pregame.
“I thought that way around the Trade Deadline, but this one I didn't, for whatever reason,” Keller said. “I guess my thoughts were not in that place. I was more concerned with just getting this last one done. Looking forward to next year."
Keller still has three years remaining on the five-year, $77 million extension he signed in February 2024, the largest contract for a pitcher in franchise history. He’s due to make $16.5 million in ‘26, which is pricey but affordable for the Pirates.
It certainly helps that the Pirates have plenty of young pitching at the Major League level, making it more feasible to invest heavily into one pitcher, but that also plays into the calculus of if they should trade Keller or not. Not only could Keller be theoretically traded for a Major League hitter to help the game’s worst offense, the money the team would unload could be reinvested elsewhere. They did something similar this Deadline when they dealt Ke’Bryan Hayes -- who himself signed a long-term deal with the club at one point -- to the Reds.
Pitching could be a strength next year, but there’s plenty of injury risk associated with many pitchers on staff. Braxton Ashcraft was brilliant in the Majors and Hunter Barco is a Top 100 prospect, but both threw 100 innings for the first time as a professional this season. Mike Burrows and Johan Oviedo had Tommy John surgeries in 2023, and had their innings monitored this season. Jared Jones had an internal brace procedure in May that should have him ready to return to action next season, but he is also going to be a question mark.
Keller, on the other hand, was the Pirates’ second-most reliable starter, behind Paul Skenes. He made 32 starts -- 17 of which were quality starts -- and has made 95 starts over the last three years. He may not have had the highs of an All-Star worthy first-half like he did in 2023, but his 4.19 ERA was right in line with what he’s done the last four years.
Keller may not have been at his peak for most of the season, but he turned in his most consistent campaign.
“Probably ended with the same stats or something crazy like that, but I definitely felt more consistent, outing-to-outing,” Keller said. “Felt like there were less stretches of bad pitching. ... I felt a lot more consistent this year than I did last year."
That level of reliability is far from guaranteed across the sport, which is why Keller will draw trade interest. Dealing him would also mean losing a clubhouse leader, someone who has set examples for pitchers on staff for years, including Skenes as a rookie in 2024.
"He means a lot,” manager Don Kelly said. “When you talk about coming up through the system, signing the extension, being a Pirate, he embodies all of that. He shows it every single time he takes the mound. Regardless of what goes on, he gives you everything he's got, every single time."
Time will tell what Keller’s future is, but had he not signed that extension in 2024, Friday probably would have been his last start in Pittsburgh, because he’d be due for free agency. He chose to stay in Pittsburgh to try to win as a Pirate.
"It's why I signed my extension here,” Keller said. “I felt like we were on the right track. We had Ke'Bryan and Reynolds, with Paul and the starters we have, I think the sky's the limit for this team. Just have to make it happen."