Breaking down Cubs' uneven first month

May 1st, 2022

MILWAUKEE -- One month into this season, the Cubs are still forming their identity. Even while the big picture shows a team in transition, manager David Ross has stressed winning in the short-term, while searching daily for the right combinations to unlock the club's potential.

On Saturday, the Cubs were dealt a 9-1 loss at the hands of the rival Brewers, putting the finishing touch on an 8-13 showing in April for the North Siders. That is not where Chicago wants to be within the National League Central landscape.

"Month to month, you try to assess," Ross said. "We try to win every game, but you can assess where you're at, what kind of month you had, and try to improve and see some trend lines over that month."

With that in mind, here is a breakdown of how the first month went for various parts of the Cubs' roster.

PITCHING
Pro:
3.53 ERA by bullpen
Con: 5.56 ERA by rotation

In a way, the three-inning start by Justin Steele against the Brewers was symbolic of the way things went for the rotation in April. As a group, Chicago's starters averaged fewer than five innings per game. The abbreviated Spring Training played a role, but the veteran cogs (Kyle Hendricks and Marcus Stroman) have also labored to set a consistent tone.

"I'd say everybody wants to take that next step forward," Steele said, "start getting deeper into games, give the bullpen a little bit of a break. Having those kinds of games. It's coming. It's still early in the season. One month in."

On the positive side of things, Ross has found a rhythm with his relief corps.

Veteran late-inning arm David Robertson has led the way with a ready-for-anything mentality, plus a stingy showing (no runs allowed in eight outings). Righty Keegan Thompson emerged as a multi-inning weapon as well, pushing the bullpen's innings (89 1/3) nearly equal to the rotation (90 2/3) in April.

OFFENSE
Pro:
9.9 swinging-strike rate
Con: 49.7 percent ground-ball rate

Saturday's showing from Chicago's lineup was an anomaly based on how the group has operated this season. The Cubs had a season-high 15 strikeouts, and their only run came via a homer. That is not the kind of offense Ross has featured in the first month.

"That's not something we want to be trending in that way," said Ross, who has used 20 lineups through 21 games this season in his search for the right offensive formula.

Overall, the Cubs' contact rate has been up this season compared to previous years. The strikeouts have dropped and the ball is in play more often. At times, it has been an exciting brand of offense. The tradeoff has been a Major League-high ground-ball rate, the most double play groundouts (24) in baseball and a drop in power.

That said, when the offense has clicked, it has fired on some pretty impressive cylinders. As a team, the Cubs hit .277/.357/.446 in the first 10 games -- helped by Seiya Suzuki's eye-popping debut. In the next 11 games, however, the team posted a .225/.314/.331 slash line. And that includes the 21-run, 23-hit outburst on April 23.

DEFENSE
Pro:
One error in first 11 games
Con: 10 errors in last 10 games

Steele's abbreviated outing on Saturday didn't get any easier when the Cubs made two errors behind him in the first inning. Steele himself also made a fielding blunder on an infield hit, contributing to what developed into a 37-pitch first inning.

One thing Ross wants to be part of the identity of any team he manages is reliability in the field. In the first half of April, when the Cubs were off to a strong start, the defense was solid. Shortstop Nico Hoerner and left fielder Ian Happ have been two standouts early on this year.

In the past 10 games, the miscues have piled up. Utility man Jonathan Villar has been charged with four errors on the year. Outfielder Michael Hermosillo's misplay in the first Saturday was his second this season. Overall, the Cubs had minus-six defensive runs saved going into the final game of April.

"When you look back on why you lose games," Ross said, "I think that those are the things, if you want to be a winning ballclub, we have to get better at. We can't beat ourselves."