Here are 6 takeaways from Bucs' first 9 games

April 9th, 2019

PITTSBURGH -- The Pirates’ four-game sweep of the Reds probably had some fans riding high. Their mistake-filled loss on Monday at Wrigley Field might have led others to declare the season over.

Games in April count just the same as they do in August or September, sure, but the first few weeks of the season lend themselves to overreaction. The Bucs have played only 5.6 percent of their schedule. Last year, they were 7-2 after nine games and finished 82-79. They won 98 games in 2015, and they began that season 3-6.

This is no time to draw sweeping conclusions, but as the Pirates enjoy their third scheduled off-day of the season, here are six takeaways -- three positives, three concerns -- from their first nine games.

Three up

1. The pitching

The Pirates owned the Majors’ fifth-best ERA (2.93) and second-best rotation ERA (1.98) entering play on Tuesday. All five starters have provided reason for optimism.

Jameson Taillon pitched better than his final line on Opening Day, cruising through a tough Cardinals lineup his second time out and getting knocked out by a combination of bad luck and a comebacker to the head on Monday. Trevor Williams was excellent in his season debut then put together a quality start despite getting hit around early on Saturday. Joe Musgrove was lights-out in his first start. Chris Archer has 15 strikeouts in 11 innings. Jordan Lyles pitched well without his best stuff in his five-inning Pirates debut.

Pittsburgh's bullpen issues seem to be sorting themselves out. Richard Rodriguez has bounced back from a shaky start. Francisco Liriano looked great in his last two outings. Nick Burdi has shown high-octane stuff. Kyle Crick should be back sooner than later. A few home runs shouldn’t outweigh Keone Kela’s recent track record of success.

2. Josh Bell’s power

Did you see the ball he hit over the batter’s eye on Sunday?

Bell’s surface-level stats are encouraging. He’s slashing .273/.342/.545 with two home runs and eight RBIs. Run production matters for the cleanup hitter, and it’s obvious from talking to Bell that he feels like he’s in a good place.

Consider these numbers, too. According to Statcast, Bell ranks in the Majors’ 96th percentile in average exit velocity (94.8 mph, up from 90 mph last year), 77th percentile in hard-hit rate (48.1 percent, up from 39 last year), 80th percentile in expected wOBA and 82nd percentile in expected slugging percentage. He’s hitting the ball hard, and good things tend to happen when he does that.

3. Adam Frazier as an everyday player

He’s hitting .324/.410/.500 with nearly as many walks (four) as strikeouts (five), and he’s already surpassed his 2018 stolen base total, with two, from atop the order. His defense hasn’t been an issue. The Pirates bet on Frazier coming into his own as a regular at second base, and he’s rewarding their faith so far.

Three down

1. The infield defense

Frazier has been solid, and Jung Ho Kang has looked good at third base. But they’ve committed 11 errors as a team, third-most in the Majors -- 10 by infielders, one on an errant throw by Archer. Pittsburgh’s infield defense was an issue last season, and it’s already cost them this year.

Shortstop Kevin Newman’s three-error inning played a big part in Monday’s loss to the Cubs. The Pirates might have won their home opener if not for critical errors by Colin Moran and Erik Gonzalez. They need to support their pitching staff with strong defense. Giving away outs and extra bases slices into their already-thin margin for error.

2. Kang’s early offense

There was bound to be an adjustment period after Kang missed most of the last two years, even if his homer-happy Spring Training created a lot of excitement. Nine games in, Kang is 4-for-28 with a homer, two doubles, four walks and 10 strikeouts.

The Pirates are going to be patient with Kang. They named him the starter for a reason and the club doesn’t want him looking over his shoulder. The same is true for Gonzalez, whose .556 OPS is lower than Kang’s .571 mark.

3. The injured list

The Pirates knew they’d be without Gregory Polanco, their starting right fielder and most productive hitter a year ago, on Opening Day. They’ll miss starter Chad Kuhl and reliever Edgar Santana all season. That’s tough enough.

Since Spring Training, Pittsburgh has lost its replacement right fielder, Lonnie Chisenhall; No. 3-hitting, Gold Glove Award-winning left fielder, Corey Dickerson; backup catcher, Elias Diaz; a high-leverage reliever, Crick; and two often-used depth options, infielder Jose Osuna and reliever Dovydas Neverauskas.

There are some silver linings. Polanco is on a rehab assignment with Class A Advanced Bradenton, Diaz with Triple-A Indianapolis; both should be in Pittsburgh this month. Crick doesn’t expect to be out for long. Melky Cabrera is holding down right field and hitting well, and outfield prospect Jason Martin is off to a good start.

Manager Clint Hurdle has said this team, more than most, will need contributions from everybody. That includes the players currently on the shelf.