Making predictions for the Padres' free agents

October 17th, 2023

This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

A pivotal offseason looms.

Despite a disappointing 2023 campaign, the Padres remain squarely amid their window for contention. But their roster needs tweaks. Although most of their core is set to remain in place, there will be plenty of turnover. On their 40-man roster, the Padres have 13 players who are either pending free agents or have options that could take them there.

With less than a month until free agency, here's a prediction for all 13:

Matt Carpenter
Coming off a poor age-37 season, Carpenter might retire. But he has 5.5 million reasons to return (the value of his player option for 2024).

Prediction: Carpenter exercises his player option, but the Padres cut ties before next season

Ji Man Choi
Acquired at the Deadline as a needed lefty bat, Choi's Padres tenure was a bust. He spent much of the final two months on the IL and batted .065 in 16 games.

Prediction: Choi signs elsewhere

Garrett Cooper
Another Deadline addition, Cooper made an impact as a power threat toward the bottom of the lineup, and he played first base full time after Jake Cronenworth's season-ending injury. The Padres could use a righty-hitting DH/1B type in free agency. But those will be plentiful.

Prediction: The Padres explore a reunion, but Cooper signs elsewhere

Luis García
After a rough start, García figured things out late in the season. Still, he wasn't anywhere near the consistent weapon he was in 2022, and he'll be entering his age-37 season. The Padres’ bullpen needs stability.

Prediction: García signs elsewhere

Josh Hader
Hader is coming off one of the most dominant relief seasons in franchise history, and the Padres need a closer. Hader has been excellent in that role (even if his reluctance to pitch in multiple innings was occasionally costly).

No doubt, Hader will command a huge sum on the free-agent market. If he were to depart, Robert Suarez is a ready-made replacement, and Scott Barlow was sharp down the stretch. But Hader is a different caliber of reliever.

“You need those kinds of guys in the back end of your bullpen,” said general manager A.J. Preller. “We’ll have conversations with Josh and his agents as well, figure out where things stand.”

Prediction: Hader declines a qualifying offer ... the Padres make him a multiyear offer; he signs elsewhere

Rich Hill
Needless to say, the Deadline deal to land Hill and Choi didn’t pan out. Hill posted an 8.23 ERA in 10 games (five starts) with San Diego. He has expressed a desire to continue pitching, but he’s probably better suited as a veteran presence on a young team not in win-now mode.

Prediction: Hill continues to pitch but signs elsewhere

Seth Lugo
Lugo signed with the Padres largely because they were willing to give him an opportunity as a full-time starter. He made the most of it, posting a 3.57 ERA in 26 outings, all starts. Now, Lugo owns a $7.5 million player option that he’ll probably decline. The Padres’ rotation is thin, and Lugo clearly loved pitching in San Diego.

The two sides will touch base. But Lugo proved himself fully capable of handling a starting role, meaning his market should be much more robust this winter than last.

Prediction: Lugo signs elsewhere; the Padres scour for a 2024 version of Lugo, if you will

Nick Martinez
Don’t overlook how valuable Martinez has been to this pitching staff. The Padres hold a two-year, $32 team option with Martinez. If they decline it, Martinez has an $8 million player option for 2024.

The Padres need starters, and Martinez says his plan is “to come into next year ready to start and be down for anything.” A durable arm and a valuable clubhouse presence, Martinez has talked as though he plans to return. It would behoove the Padres to find a way to make that happen.

Prediction: Martinez returns in 2024 -- potentially via an option, but don’t rule out the possibility of a restructured deal

Drew Pomeranz
After four injury-riddled seasons in which Pomeranz pitched a total of 44 1/3 innings, the Padres will merely be content to see his salary come off their books.

Prediction: Pomeranz retires or signs a Minors deal elsewhere

Jurickson Profar
Profar says it’s no coincidence his numbers improved upon his Padres reunion (even after he’d spent five months hitting at Coors Field). He loves playing in San Diego, and his teammates love having him.

Prediction: Profar is in Padres camp next spring on a prove-it deal, either a Minors contract or a league-minimum salary

Gary Sánchez
The toughest one to predict, I’d say. Sánchez enjoyed a renaissance with the Padres after he was claimed off waivers. Clearly he’s comfortable in San Diego, where he’s beloved in the clubhouse.

But did Sánchez’s performance price him out of the Padres’ plans? He posted a .792 OPS with San Diego while showing significant defensive improvement. The Padres already have Luis Campusano, and Sánchez will assuredly have numerous suitors.

Prediction: Just a hunch, but I think Sánchez re-signs and splits time with Campusano

Blake Snell
Snell became the first Padre to lead the Majors in ERA since Jake Peavy in 2007, and there’s a good chance he’ll become the first Padre to win the Cy Young since Peavy, too.

“We’re hoping he wins that award, and he’s well deserving,” Preller said. “The three years he’s been here, he’s performed at a super high level. He’s earned the right to be a free agent. We’ll sit down. There’s high interest from the organization in terms of having a pitcher like Blake in our rotation.”

Thing is, there’s going to be high interest from other organizations, too. Snell is one of the most coveted free agents on the market. Meanwhile, this is a Padres team with a number of holes, particularly on its pitching staff, and Preller might look to spread the money around.

Prediction: Snell declines a qualifying offer … the two sides discuss a reunion, but he signs elsewhere

Michael Wacha
The basics: The Padres have a two-year, $32 million team option. If they decline it, Wacha would likely decline a player option worth $6.5 million for 2024.

Wacha posted a 3.22 ERA in 24 starts this season. When healthy, he’s worth the money. But there’s risk involved, considering he’s dealt with shoulder trouble in each of the past two seasons.

“I honestly have no idea what to expect,” Wacha said after his final start of the season -- and neither do I! But here’s a guess:

Prediction: The Padres pick up Wacha’s option