These were MiLB's biggest surprise performers

October 3rd, 2018

Every self-respecting baseball writer has to announce his postseason predictions. While it may be boring, I see the Astros beating the Dodgers in a repeat of the 2017 World Series after those clubs knock off the Red Sox and the Brewers in the Championship Series.
How did I do with my preseason picks? I correctly identified three of the six division winners and seven of the 10 playoff participants (missing on the Angels, D-backs and Nationals while selling the Athletics, Braves and Rockies short). I picked Houston to beat Los Angeles in the World Series back in March too, so I'm nothing if not consistent.

I'll give you two, a pitcher and a position player. Astros right-hander Josh James had done little to distinguish himself in his first four professional seasons, then easily led the Minors in strikeout rate (13.5 per nine innings) before fanning 38 in 21 2/3 innings in Houston. Rays first baseman Nate Lowe was better known as Josh Lowe's big brother and totaled just 11 homers in his first two pro seasons before going deep 27 times this year and batting .330/.416/.568 while zooming from high Class A to Triple-A.
 For more on James and Lowe, check out the video at the top of this column.

Because Kopech (White Sox) and Espinoza (Padres) are recovering from Tommy John surgery and Greene (Reds) is dealing with elbow woes, rather than any of them having shoulder issues, I'm optimistic they can reclaim their impressive stuff. The track record with elbow reconstructions is much more positive compared to shoulder surgeries.
Kopech's prospect status gets dinged a bit because he'll miss 2019 and has to come back from Tommy John surgery, but his pure stuff was as good as any Minor Leaguer's before he got hurt. Greene will avoid surgery for now, has the most effortless triple-digit fastball ever and is still just 19. Espinoza hasn't pitched in a game since 2016, but he's still just 20 and has an electric arm with the potential for three plus pitches.

Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman and Colleyville (Texas) Heritage High shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. are the leading college and prep prospects eight months from the 2019 Draft. A lot can and will change in that time, however. Just look at a year ago, when Florida right-hander Brady Singer and Santiago High (Corona, Calif.) Brice Turang were in the same position Rutschman and Witt are now, yet went 18th and 21st overall in the 2018 Draft.
The player most likely to push his way into consideration for one of the top two picks in 2019 is Blessed Trinity Catholic High (Roswell, Ga.) shortstop CJ Abrams. He has game-changing speed, hitting ability along with power potential, plus the ability to play quality defense at shortstop or center field. He's similar to Twins shortstop Royce Lewis, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 Draft.
Three more names to watch, one from each of the other college/high school and hitter/pitcher demographics: California first baseman Andrew Vaughn, Duke left-hander Graeme Stinson and Georgia Premier Academy (Statesboro, Ga.) right-hander Daniel Espino.

Most first-rounders have star potential or they wouldn't be first-rounders, and it's too early to call anyone a bust after one full season. But I like this question and I'm going to answer based on which 2017 first-rounders have seen their stock rise and fall the most.
Outfielder Jo Adell did go No. 10 overall to the Angels, but a lot of teams still questioned his hitting ability because he swung and missed a lot on the high school showcase circuit. He erased those concerns by batting .290/.355/.543 with 20 homers and 15 steals this year while reaching Double-A at age 19. Adell might have the best all-around tools in the Minors and conceivably could rank as the top prospect in baseball next season.
On the other end of the spectrum is another outfielder who came with worries about his bat: Jeren Kendall, who went 23th overall to the Dodgers. I loved Kendall's all-around tools and thought he should have been an easy top-10 choice, but swing-and-miss and signability issues caused him to drop. Scouts increasingly question whether he'll make enough contact after he fanned in 32 percent of his plate appearances this year while batting .215/.300/.356 with 12 homers and 37 steals at the Class A Advanced level.