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Analyzing 5 blockbuster trade proposals

Former GM Jim Duquette weighs in on likelihood of suggested swaps
July 12, 2018

No team is perfect, and coming up with trade proposals is a fun exercise in identifying clubs' needs and trying to find potential solutions. Recently, I asked fans to send me trade proposals on Twitter, and the response was tremendous. I have analyzed five of the best proposals below, but

No team is perfect, and coming up with trade proposals is a fun exercise in identifying clubs' needs and trying to find potential solutions. Recently, I asked fans to send me trade proposals on Twitter, and the response was tremendous. I have analyzed five of the best proposals below, but don't sweat if yours was not selected this week! We will go over another five next week, so keep sending in your ideas.
All statistics are as of Wednesday.
Proposal No. 1 (via @slprospects)
Brewers get: Shortstop Manny Machado
Orioles get: Outfielder Brett Phillips, right-hander Luis Ortiz (Brewers' No. 4 prospect) and second baseman/shortstop Mauricio Dubon (No. 10)
We all know that the Brewers have a huge need at shortstop. Their lack of offensive production at the position is glaring, with their .550 OPS ranking 29th in MLB. The competition for Machado is extremely heavy -- with upwards of five teams still in the mix -- but he is still only a rental for the rest of the season.

In this proposal, Milwaukee is giving up three of its top 10 prospects for a player who will be a free agent this offseason, and it's unclear if the Orioles will be able to obtain more than one top-10 prospect for Machado, as the overall marketplace over the past two Trade Deadlines has been trending away from giving up multiple high-end prospects for three months of a superstar, even if he could be a difference-maker come October. (Remember the J.D. Martinez deal last summer? Detroit got two second-tier prospects from Arizona for him.)

Who says no? The Brewers. It would be difficult for them to part with three of the organization's top 10 prospects for a player who is likely signing elsewhere after the season.
Proposal No. 2 (via @vanwingerdenpi)
Mariners get: Relief pitcher Raisel Iglesias and starting pitcher Matt Harvey
Reds get: Outfielder Kyle Lewis (Mariners' No. 1 prospect) and first baseman Daniel Vogelbach
The Mariners could use a starter and possibly bullpen depth. Adding Alex Colome and taking on Denard Span's contract was a creative way for them to upgrade in a single trade. Harvey, a free agent after the season, has pitched well lately and is trending up with a 2.48 ERA over his past five starts, while Iglesias (under club control through 2022) continues to be one of baseball's most consistently dominant relievers with a 173 ERA+ from 2016-18. Iglesias could command a package of Lewis and Vogelbach. While Lewis has battled knee issues since being drafted in the first round (11th overall) in 2016, he is a great athlete in a thin farm system and will likely join Seattle in the near future.
Who says no? The Reds, based on their overall needs. Additionally, Cincinnati does not need Vogelbach at first base since Joey Votto is signed through 2023 with a complete no-trade clause and $125 million left on his contract after this season. 
Proposal No. 3 (via mandana808)
Braves get: Right-hander Michael Fulmer and outfielder Nicholas Castellanos
Tigers get: Righty Kyle Wright (Braves' No. 2 prospect), left-hander Kolby Allard (No. 5), outfielder Cristian Pache (No. 8) and catcher/third baseman Drew Lugbauer (No. 28)

The Braves could use a controllable mid-rotation (or better) piece such as Fulmer, who is controlled through 2022, but it's hard to envision that right now since Fulmer's season has been good but not great. Per FanGraphs, his 1.6 WAR ranks 37th out of 83 qualified starters this year, so Detroit would not be trading him at his peak value. Castellanos, a free agent after next season, could command a package of Wright or Allard plus Pache and Lugbauer, as he has quietly put up big offensive numbers again for the Tigers, building on a 2017 campaign in which he drove in a career-high 101 runs with 26 homers and a .490 slugging percentage. His 136 wRC+ is equal to Joey Votto's, making him a more valuable and expensive acquisition for Atlanta or any other team, especially with one more season of club control left on his contract.

Who says no? The Tigers, mainly because they could probably acquire three or four quality prospects for Fulmer and Castellanos separately.
Proposal No. 4 (via @PeteBell33)
Yankees get: Right-hander Chris Archer
Rays get: Outfielder Clint Frazier, left-hander Justus Sheffield (Yankees' No. 2 prospect) and righty Dillon Tate (No. 9)
A package for Archer would likely start with Miguel Andujar, with Frazier and Sheffield as the second and third pieces. Archer's contract is still one of the best values in baseball, as he's owed only $27.7 million through 2021 if both team options are exercised. If Archer can return to his 2013-15 form -- when he compiled a 3.26 ERA in the difficult American League East -- Tampa Bay may decide to dangle him down the road.
Who says no? The Rays say no, mainly because Archer's value is not at its peak due to his recent DL stint.

Proposal No. 5 (via @mashl87)
Rockies get: First baseman Jose Abreu
White Sox get: First baseman Ryan McMahon and outfielder Jordan Patterson
With one more year remaining on his contract after this, now could be the right time for Chicago to unload its 31-year-old All-Star. A package starting with McMahon would entice the White Sox, as McMahon has risen through the Rockies' system as a potential starting first baseman and possible replacement for Abreu. But his down 2018 season has not helped his value, so Chicago would need another potential everyday starter with more upside than Patterson, such as right-hander Peter Lambert (Rockies' No. 3 prospect).
Who says no? The White Sox say no. Even though Abreu is having a below-average first half compared to his previous four seasons, when he averaged a 139 wRC+, he is still considered one of the most productive first basemen in the game.

Jim Duquette, who was the Mets' GM in 2004, offers his opinions as a studio analyst and columnist for