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Let’s talk about strikeouts.
Seemingly everyone outside the Minnesota clubhouse wanted to talk about strikeouts at the end of the Twins’ playoff run in October -- and seemingly for good reason, as a Minnesota offense that set a new all-time record for strikeouts in a season went down in a hail of whiffs to Astros starters Cristian Javier and José Urquidy to duck out of the American League Division Series.
But within the Twins’ clubhouse and decision-making rooms, the strikeouts in and of themselves aren’t necessarily considered a primary issue; rather, they are more seen as a by-product of the approach that led to the club’s offensive success.
“Of course, it’s a very easy blinking light that everyone can look at and talk about,” manager Rocco Baldelli said. “There are certain points in every game where you do want to find a way to put the ball in play. But in the vast majority of at-bats, that’s not part of the conversation.
“I would rather have a guy have a great at-bat and go deep into a count and possibly strike out, but give us a chance to actually give us a baserunner or actually look for a ball in the middle of the zone and pulverize it.”
While the two best offenses in the sport -- the Dodgers and Braves -- ranked better than average in strikeout rate, there are good offenses that strike out a ton (the Twins were a well above-average lineup despite setting the record with 1,654 strikeouts) and there are bad ones that don’t strike out (the Guardians’ offense was terrible despite posting the fewest strikeouts in the Majors).
“We weren’t trying to strike out more,” president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said. “But at the same time, we were trying to find ways to get to more power. We’ve all observed these playoffs to this point. What’s mattered most is power, the ability to hit for power. The reality is that striking out less this postseason has not led to more wins.”
That brings us to one of Falvey’s favorite series of questions to ask us in the media when we’re just chatting about the state of the game, year after year:
In the postseason, what’s the record of teams that hit more homers than their opponents? And what’s the record of teams that strike out less than their opponents?
The answers for 2023 are 29-7 (.806) and 17-19 (.472), respectively, not counting games in which the teams tied in those stats. In the last three postseasons combined, those records become 71-12 (.855) and 63-42 (.600). Falvey’s point has always been this: It’s far, far more important to hit the ball hard than to necessarily avoid strikeouts.
It would obviously be ideal if Minnesota had stacked lineups of superstar hitters who hit for power and don’t strike out like those big-market teams. But here’s what the Twins do really well: They hit the ball hard and in the air, and they take their walks. And the way they see it, if that comes with a trade-off of more strikeouts, they’re willing to make that trade.
They’re looking for pitches with which to do real damage -- often working deeper counts to do so, with the Twins having finished fifth in pitches seen per plate appearance in ‘23. With that will come more two-strike counts, obviously, and thus, more strikeouts. For many in the clubhouse, there’s a greater understanding that the upside of their approach is more important than the downside that might come of it.
“Yeah, the strikeouts, we can talk about strikeouts all day, but for me, I don't see it as the at-bats are bad because of a bad result,” Edouard Julien said. “Yeah, we struck out, but we had a lot of walks, too, and we had a lot of people on base.”
With that said, there’s still room for improvement, clearly -- likely more individualized and situational based on certain players’ skill sets and tendencies, according to Baldelli.
“There are smaller conversations, side conversations with certain players, where they can enhance their game by having a different two-strike approach than maybe they’ve had previously,” Baldelli said. “One hundred percent, that can be the case. But this is not an overriding topic for discussion, the discussion topic of our season offensively, in my opinion. I really do not think it should be something we focus on.”
They expressed the belief after the season that the Twins can still be a top offense moving forward despite the strikeouts. A full season of Royce Lewis will help, as will a healthy Carlos Correa, who has had no issues in his offseason recovery from the plantar fasciitis that limited him throughout the ‘23 season.
And it’ll probably still come with the strikeouts -- but so long as they’re still scoring runs and hitting the ball hard in most cases, they appear to be willing to accept that.
“At the end of the day, we’re trying to build the best overall offense,” Falvey said. “That’s going to come with different facets of it. There are certainly times when contact plays a meaningful role in outcomes, but for us, we’re just trying to find a way to build the best offense. That will come with some version of strikeouts, but hopefully some version of getting on base and hitting for power.”