3 questions facing the Twins ahead of 2022 season

March 13th, 2022

MINNEAPOLIS -- There's plenty of work for the Twins to do before the season begins, and their to-do list remains largely the same as it looked before the lockout.

It's no big secret that Minnesota needs starting pitching -- a good deal of it. What could the club’s approaches look like as it ramps up into a season that looms just around the corner? Let's take a look through the three biggest questions the Twins have to answer ahead of the 2022 season.

1. Who's left to add to the starting rotation?

There was a massive run on starting pitchers before the shutdown began at the beginning of December, but the Twins only bit off a small piece of the pie by signing veteran right-hander Dylan Bundy to a one-year deal with a club option. In the meantime, the likes of Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman, Alex Cobb, Jon Gray, Alex Wood, James Paxton, Steven Matz and Marcus Stroman all signed deals and are no longer available on the free-agent market.

The Twins' current rotation picture consists of Bundy (6.06 ERA in an injury-shortened 2021), Bailey Ober (4.19 ERA in 20 career starts) and Joe Ryan (4.05 ERA in five career starts). Randy Dobnak will likely play some role, but the right-hander is coming off a disastrous '21. Lewis Thorpe will be out of Minor League options, but the former top prospect has never experienced big league success and saw persistent injuries wipe out his 2021.

The top pitchers remaining in free agency include Zack Greinke, Tyler Anderson, Michael Pineda and Danny Duffy. Others like Zach Davies, Matthew Boyd and Chris Archer remain as well, likely available on short-term deals.

The Twins haven't signed any starters to lengthy deals under this regime, and with the clear top-tier starting options already signed and a large group of pitching prospects on the cusp of the big leagues, it would be a surprise to see the Twins go over the top for a splashy acquisition on the market here, especially considering their recent history of short-term, bridge-like deals for veterans or bounceback candidates.

The Twins have, on the other hand, made timely trades for controllable starting pitchers -- Jake Odorizzi and Kenta Maeda come to mind here -- and president of baseball operations Derek Falvey has noted that the Twins turned their focus to trade conversations ahead of the shutdown, too. The Reds and A's are the two big teams that could make starters available, through Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle and Sonny Gray in Cincinnati, and Frankie Montas in Oakland. Castillo and Montas are the big prizes with years of remaining control but would likely command huge prices.

In the end, it could come down to finding a partner that fits the areas in which the Twins have trade depth, which includes plenty of pitching in the high Minors and a handful of players with remaining club control (Max Kepler and Luis Arraez could headline that group). And if the ask is for a pitching prospect or two, would the Twins benefit significantly from trading away their depth of future value, where the club's window might be more open, for two or three years of a proven starter in the present? These are the questions they'll have to wrestle with in the weeks to come.

2. Could (insert top pitching prospect here) immediately plug one of those gaps?

Take your pick of any of these following names for the blank in the question: Josh Winder, Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino, Cole Sands, Simeon Woods Richardson and Louie Varland. The answer, in all of those cases, is probably a "no" at the start of the season.

Canterino, Woods Richardson, Balazovic, Sands and Varland, having not pitched in Triple-A, are too far away from the Majors to be under serious consideration for the big leagues in early 2022, and that's not to mention the elbow injury that sidelined Canterino for most of '21 and the hiatus Woods Richardson took to represent the United States at the Olympic Games in Tokyo.

As for the two who have already pitched in Triple-A in Winder and Duran, their workload this season will likely be measured by the fact that they both missed large chunks of time due to injury in '21, with Winder held to 72 innings by shoulder troubles and Duran limited to 16 innings by elbow issues. The Twins, as an organization, have been particularly cognizant of limiting workloads for their young pitchers, and especially in the cases of top arms like Winder and Duran, they'll have little reason to rush them for Opening Day.

A chunk of these pitchers will likely see action in the big leagues in 2022, with Winder, Duran, Balazovic and Sands already on the 40-man roster (along with Drew Strotman and Chris Vallimont). But for the sake of their health and development, it would be a surprise to see them in the Majors from the get-go.

3. Will the Twins sign a full-time DH?

It's tempting to think about another deal that will bring universally beloved clubhouse leader Nelson Cruz back to Minnesota (and who can bet against the man at this point?). Still, manager Rocco Baldelli and Falvey looked to appreciate having the flexibility to rotate various players through the designated hitter slot in 2021, and that configuration would make more sense with this roster, with too many players having too much to gain from access to the DH slot.

Josh Donaldson clearly stands to benefit from pseudo-rest days at DH, taking some load off his legs on a regular basis. Polanco has been the unquestioned workhorse of this team for three seasons, and rotations through DH would keep his bat in the lineup while easing the effects of his considerable workload on his body.

It's also easy to imagine the additional at-bats that will go to Alex Kirilloff or Jose Miranda with the extra lineup slots available, and that's not to mention the likely added demand for Cruz created by the inclusion of the DH in the National League. The cons of a full-time DH seem to outweigh the pros by too much -- and the lineup won't exactly be the issue for these 2022 Twins.