MINNEAPOLIS -- Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said that he has a "pretty good feeling" about which of his pitchers will start Game 1 of the American League Division Series against the Yankees. Baldelli and his staff will also go into the weekend with a rough idea of how they want to line up their pitching. He just doesn't want you -- or Yankees manager Aaron Boone -- to know yet.
"We're going to wait until the very last minute to talk about what any of our players are going to be doing," Baldelli said.
That doesn't mean that we can't speculate about how the forward-thinking Twins might navigate their short-handed rotation of José Berríos and Jake Odorizzi and potentially Randy Dobnak and Kyle Gibson through a possible five-game series against the Yankees. Baldelli and his staff haven't shied away from creative usage of their pitchers this season, and that very well could be on full display in the postseason.
Berríos and Odorizzi appear to be the leading candidates for a Game 1 nod, and there are compelling arguments for both. Berríos is this team's ace and has the highest ceiling of any of Minnesota's starting pitchers, especially when he is locating his curveball and mixing in his changeup the way he wants to. Odorizzi has arguably been this team's most consistent starter in 2019.
Here's how several different factors could impact the Twins' usage of their starters in the ALDS:
Bullpen success and composition
One important thing for the Twins to figure out ahead of Berríos' and Odorizzi's first outings is how Baldelli and his staff trust the length arms in their bullpen in important -- and potential do-or-die -- situations late in the series.
The Twins do have some wiggle room with their starters in this regard because of how good the bullpen has been since the All-Star break, with FanGraphs showing that Minnesota's relief corps led the Majors with a collective 4.8 WAR in the second half. Whether in protecting leads or throwing extended relief outings to preserve the rotation, the young bullpen proved its versatility and mettle in August and September.
But say that the Twins face a clinch or an elimination situation in Games 4 or 5. Would they be willing to count on rookies like Lewis Thorpe, Devin Smeltzer or Cody Stashak in meaningful, high-pressure innings in those games, or would they want their veterans, Berríos and Odorizzi, to potentially be available out of the bullpen? (Note also that the pair has combined for four career relief appearances.)
If so, it could make sense for the Twins to ease up on Berríos' and Odorizzi's workloads in their starts and use them in shorter stints in case they might be needed on short rest later in the series.
The days of rest and inexperience factor
Furthermore, relief considerations for Berríos and Odorizzi later in the series could also mean it might make more sense for them to be lined up for Games 1 and 2. The Twins' Game 1 starter would be on three days' rest for a potential Game 4, and five days' rest for a potential Game 5. The Game 2 starter would, then, be on four days' rest for Game 5.
Berríos has pitched on three days' rest in his career only once, when he threw on short rest in the 2017 AL Wild Card Game against the Yankees, during which he allowed three runs in three innings of relief. The last time Odorizzi appeared on short rest was in '13, though he has the advantage of not having pitched since Sept. 24, meaning his arm is likely to be comparatively fresh for the postseason. Neither has ever pitched on two days' rest, meaning that a Game 3 start would push either pitcher into uncharted territory for a later relief stint.
This could be less of an issue for someone like Dobnak, who has been used in all manner of roles -- long reliever, opener, traditional starter -- since he arrived in Minnesota. That means that he could be less entrenched in his routines and potentially better able to withstand a particularly quick turnaround -- say, a Game 5 appearance after a Game 3 start.
Home/road splits and the Yankee Stadium factor
The counterargument to using both Berríos and Odorizzi at Yankee Stadium is that the Twins might not have a starter on their staff better suited for pitching in the Bronx than Dobnak, who relies on a hard sinker, leads active Twins pitchers with a 54 percent ground-ball rate and also owns the pitching staff's lowest fly-ball rate, at 11.5 percent, according to Statcast.
Dobnak has allowed only one home run in 28 1/3 innings in the Major Leagues, and the Yankees have never faced the 24-year-old right-hander and his unorthodox delivery.
"Yeah, I've heard it's a bandbox there, so having that, for me, will be nice," Dobnak said. "Just to keep the ball on the ground instead of having to care like some guys because they live up in the zone. If you miss anywhere, they're going to crush it. I think for me, I'll definitely have an advantage having the sinker and living down in the zone. I think that will help."
Berríos is aware of the fact that he has never pitched well at Yankee Stadium, where he is 0-2 with a 9.82 ERA in two regular-season starts to go with the shaky outing in the 2017 Wild Card Game.
"I just forget about it," Berríos said. "The same way we've been doing since we're young kids. Friday or Saturday is going to be a new day."
Odorizzi has plenty of experience pitching in New York from his time in Tampa Bay, but he would be a fly-ball pitcher against a homer-happy Yankees team in a small ballpark. According to Statcast, Odorizzi's 27.7 percent fly-ball rate on batted balls is the highest among Twins starters, though his homer rate is actually second lowest among Twins pitchers this season.
There are also home-road splits in play for both Berríos (3.51 home ERA, 3.84 road ERA) and Odorizzi (3.42 home ERA, 3.62 road ERA). If the Twins don't want to roll the dice twice at Yankee Stadium, Dobnak could certainly make sense as a Game 2 option.