This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson’s Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

I love it when a round number meets an arbitrary cutoff point in baseball.

The Blue Jays are 30 games in, coming off a grueling stretch of 20 games in 20 days against the Red Sox, Astros and Yankees. The Guardians, expected to be the softest opponent of the bunch, just took three of four from the Blue Jays.

Monday’s off-day, rolling into Tuesday’s series opener in the Bronx, works as a good point for us to stop and look around. We saw the Blue Jays outperform some of their imperfect play through April, all while learning the skill of winning the one-run game. May, however, has shown us some of the challenges the Blue Jays face today, tomorrow and over the next five months.

At 17-13, here’s where the Blue Jays stand.

THE GOOD: Toronto’s starting pitching needed a week or two, like most clubs did, but the organization has to feel good about the trio of Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Alek Manoah leading this group.

Gausman has been one of baseball’s best, doing an exceptional job of limiting walks and home runs, while the young Manoah is emerging as one of baseball’s best young arms. He’s turning his performances against the Yankees into a trademark already, and even at 24, has every attribute you want on the mound in October. Berríos hasn’t been his sharpest yet, with a 5.34 ERA, but it’s easy to bet on one of baseball’s most consistent arms over the past five years rebounding.

This conversation needs more time when it comes to the No. 4 and 5 jobs, of course. Yusei Kikuchi showed some very encouraging signs last time out, but will need to string these together consistently as he continues to work closely with Pete Walker. Just how Hyun Jin Ryu’s return and Ross Stripling’s role play out are still to be determined, but with Toronto’s talent in the top three of its rotation, it’s a fine place to start.

THE BAD: The lineup, particularly when it comes to situational hitting. This has been the ultimate surprise for a club that was expected to hit the cover off the baseball again in 2022.

Entering Monday’s games, the Blue Jays ranked 13th in MLB with a .692 team OPS, over 100 points below their .796 mark from ’21. Granted, numbers are down across baseball, but the Blue Jays have had an especially rough time hitting with runners in scoring position. In those situations, the club ranks last in MLB with a .187 average and 28th with a .574 OPS.

Charlie Montoyo, the optimist’s optimist, believes this will turn around. He’s right, especially given the recent return of Teoscar Hernández and how that impacts the lineup, but it’s been an unusual start for the star-studded group. When this does turn around, don’t be surprised if the dam bursts all at once.

THE X-FACTOR: Gabriel Moreno looms. It’s a true sweet spot, to have a lineup as talented as the Blue Jays’ is with the No. 7 prospect in all of baseball waiting in Triple-A. Add in the fact he’s a catcher who can hit? Jackpot.

That being said, the Blue Jays will still need to see a bit more from Moreno before he makes the jump to Toronto. Entering Monday, the 22-year-old from Barquisimeto, Venezuela, was hitting .299 with a .720 OPS in Triple-A. More power is expected, whether that comes in the form of doubles or home runs, but that should come. Keep in mind that Moreno had a delayed start to Spring Training due to visa issues.

When the time eventually comes, though, this catching situation gets very interesting. Danny Jansen was off to an outstanding start before an oblique injury sidelined him and Alejandro Kirk, who is also due to heat up at the plate, has looked more comfortable defensively than I expected him to.

These things tend to take care of themselves with an injury or cold streak, but sooner or later, the Blue Jays will be facing the best kind of problem: a difficult decision between multiple quality options.