Which Dominican teen shortstop will be best?

August 13th, 2020

Our Pipeline Inbox questions skew toward younger prospects this week, plus I finally answer a query I've been getting all summer ...

The two Dominican shortstops were highly coveted on the international market, with the Blue Jays giving Martinez the largest bonus any 16-year-old received in 2018 ($3.51 million) and the Athletics doing the same for Puason in 2019 ($5.1 million). Martinez starred in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League last summer in his debut, while Puason has yet to play his first pro game but is in Oakland's alternate camp as the youngest player on any 60-man list.

Martinez is the more physical of the two and has more offensive upside, particularly in terms of power. Puason is taller, leaner and more athletic, as well as quicker and a better defender at shortstop. Both have plus arms, but Martinez likely will take his to third base in the long run.

They're pretty comparable as prospects and aren't too far away from joining MLB Pipeline's Top 100 list. I'd give a slight edge to Puason but Martinez has drawn some Adrián Beltré comps, so it's a tough call.

No. 9 overall pick Robert Hassell was the best pure hitter in the 2020 high school class, and ranking just sixth on our Padres Top 30 (while also cracking the overall Top 100) does speak to the strength of San Diego's farm system. But he's not close to the lowest-ranked top pick from this year's Draft, and all of those rankings aren't necessarily related to the quality of the organization's prospect talent.

Indians shortstop Carson Tucker and Red Sox second baseman Nick Yorke both rank 11th on their Top 30s, but Cleveland's farm system is on the rise while Boston's is rebuilding and placed 25th in MLB Pipeline's preseason rankings. Yorke was the biggest surprise in the first round at No. 17 overall, while Tucker went 23rd despite the industry viewing him as more of a second-round talent.

A consensus late-first-round talent who landed in one of the game's deepest systems, right-hander Bobby Miller was 11th in our initial Dodgers midseason rankings and has moved up a spot since Dustin May graduated. Braves left-hander Jared Shuster and Astros right-hander Alex Santos also currently rank 10th on Top 30s.

Like Tucker and Yorke, Shuster took an under-slot deal in the first round after going higher (25th overall) than most teams graded him, and he's also part of a top-heavy system. The Astros have one of the thinner farm systems around, but they also lost their top two selections as sign-stealing punishment and made Santos their first choice at No. 72 in the supplemental second round.

The Padres took Weathers seventh overall in the 2018 Draft as a polished, three-pitch high school left-hander with a low-90s fastball, downer curveball and advanced changeup. At 6-foot-2 and 210 pounds he was more physically mature than projectable, and his heater remained in the low 90s during his first two steady, if unspectacular, pro seasons. In alternate camp this summer, however, he suddenly started sitting at 95 mph and topping out at 97.

The son of 19-year big leaguer David Weathers, Ryan would go from a high-floor, No. 4 or 5 starter to type to a potential frontline option if he maintains plus velocity on a fastball he already commands well (and theoretically adds some power to his breaking pitches as well). We still don't know if he can hold this newfound velocity for six innings at a time every five days over a six-month season, and we don't know how it will play in real games yet, but it's definitely an encouraging sign. It's not out of the question that he could jump from Class A in 2019 to San Diego at some point this year.

I get asked this question a few times each week on Twitter and I don't have much of an answer. What I do know is that the March agreement between MLB and the MLB Players Association gave Commissioner Rob Manfred the power to modify the Draft order after consulting with the union. I'm going out on a limb here, but I believe the Commissioner's Office has much more to worry about right now than the 2021 Draft.

In a normal year, the Draft order is based on the reverse order of winning percentages from the previous season. With the 2020 season reduced to 60 games, a case could be made for aligning the Draft order with the combined winning percentages from 2019-20, or for doing that but maybe placing extra weight on this year's results. Perhaps we could see the first MLB Draft lottery.