The White Sox took a commanding 2-0 lead in the ALDS against the division-rival Guardians on Monday, via a 4-3 win that followed a tightly contested 3-0 Game 1 on Saturday. Game 2 might have gone differently had it been played in Chicago instead of Cleveland.
Jo Adell hit a ball that Progressive Field held in for an off-the-wall triple, but a ball with the same Statcast-projected 413-foot flight would have cleared the fence in 19 MLB stadiums -- including the White Sox Rate Field. Adell’s three-bagger drove in a run but narrowly missed becoming a game-tying home run.
In October, the margins really are that thin. And especially between these two teams in 2026, no one should be surprised at just how tightly contested this series has been.
Entering Wednesday’s ALDS Game 3, the White Sox and Guardians have played 15 games against each other in 2026, with the White Sox holding a 9-6 advantage (7-6 in the regular season). An incredible eight of their matchups have ended with a one-run margin. Cleveland won four. Chicago won four.
They played a string of five straight one-run games to begin the season series in June and July, a stretch that featured three walk-offs and two extra-inning games.
Only two of the 15 games between these foes were decided by more than three runs: a 7-3 White Sox win on Sept. 14 and an 8-2 Guardians win on Aug. 7.
“It really has been crazy kind of back-and-forth that we've had all year,” White Sox manager Will Venable said before the start of the ALDS. “So we're excited about the opportunity to play these guys, but we know full well how challenging it is to beat them.”
The last time two teams played at least seven one-run games and met in the postseason? Well, you probably won’t be surprised to know it also involved the Guardians. In 2024, they played eight one-run decisions against the Tigers, including one in the ALDS. The Guardians won six of them.
The next example before that came between the Blue Jays and Orioles in 2016, when they split eight one-run games. They met again in the AL Wild Card Game, with the Blue Jays winning 5-2 in extra innings.
But neither of those previous rivalries was quite as close as the 2026 White Sox and Guardians, who played to a fitting plus-1 run differential in the regular season, in favor of the White Sox. The Tigers were plus-10 over Cleveland in 2024, while the Blue Jays were plus-16 over the Orioles in 2016.
Consider, too, that the Guardians ended as this year’s AL Central champions by just one game. Even that was not decided until the final weekend of the regular season.
Baseball rivalries, especially when they’re reprised in the postseason, are nerve-wracking enough. The White Sox and Guardians have taken that to the extreme.
So even as Chicago seeks to clinch its spot in the ALCS on Wednesday at home, it would be a fool’s errand to expect anything other than another nail-biter.
“If there's anything I know about this group of guys is that we love challenges like this,” Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said Monday. “We are going to embrace it. We're not going to sulk. We are not going to feel sorry for ourselves. We are going to come ready to play on Wednesday. We know what's ahead of us. We have to win three in a row, but that starts one at a time on Wednesday.”