Why a 6-man rotation works for the Padres

May 6th, 2022

This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell's Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

SAN DIEGO -- Wednesday was a day worth savoring for the Padres’ starting rotation. By Thursday, however, it was time to put the pieces together in what’s suddenly a complex rotation puzzle.

Mike Clevinger made an emotional return from Tommy John surgery in the first game of a doubleheader in Cleveland on Wednesday. Then, MacKenzie Gore -- who has overcome his own share of obstacles the past two seasons -- continued his fantastic start to his rookie season.

So Clevinger is back. Very good news. And Gore has pitched well enough to remain in the rotation. Also good news. Then, on Thursday night, Nick Martinez dominated the Marlins for seven innings. So what do you do with all these starting pitchers?

"Good problem to have,” Martinez said. “We have some nasty guys in this rotation. That makes it a lot of fun. I don't know if I'm the right guy to answer that question."

The people who will have to answer that question -- the coaching staff and front office, including president of baseball operations A.J. Preller -- held a meeting at Petco Park on Thursday to discuss that very subject. Manager Bob Melvin has always made it clear that he prefers to use a five-man staff. But the circumstances are different right now. For the time being, the Padres have settled on a temporary six-man rotation. Here’s why:

1. The calendar works perfectly for it
The Padres had a doubleheader on Wednesday, so, in a way, the six-man rotation won’t take effect until the next turn through. Plus, they’re playing 12 games in a 12-day span. (If you’re looking for a potential end-date to this plan, look no further than May 15 in Atlanta -- after each starter has taken two trips through the six-man rotation.)

2. There’s no extra burden on the bullpen right now
Rosters returned to their typical 26-man size after May 1. But through May 29, teams are allowed to carry 14 pitchers (rather than the usual 13). As such, the Padres can still employ an eight-man bullpen, even with a six-man rotation. That’s exactly what they’re doing.

3. The Padres legitimately have six worthy starting pitchers
The goal of a five-man rotation, of course, is to get the ball in the hands of your best pitchers as often as possible. Late last season, for instance, the Padres were desperate to turn it over to Joe Musgrove and Blake Snell, because they didn’t have many other options. This year, however, they might legitimately have the deepest rotation in baseball (one that could add Snell back to its ranks later this month).

4. The big picture is important, too
Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Sean Manaea are workhorses who have eaten innings in the past. They’d all be fine with a five-man rotation. But Clevinger is coming off Tommy John surgery. Gore is a rookie who, frankly, hasn’t pitched a lot over the past two years. Their innings will be monitored closely this season, and every little bit helps -- even an extra day between starts.

Of course, if all goes well in Snell’s next rehab start early next week, it might be time for another meeting of the minds.