The Mets’ offseason so far has been overshadowed by the departure of several fan favorites, either via free agency or trade.
The club dealt outfielder Brandon Nimmo and infielder/outfielder Jeff McNeil, but the biggest subtractions have been those of slugging first baseman Pete Alonso and elite closer Edwin Díaz, each of whom signed elsewhere in the span of about 24 hours around the end of the Winter Meetings.
Even with the loss of Alonso and Díaz, the Mets’ focus hasn’t been seismic, splashy moves like the signing of Juan Soto to the largest contract in sports history last year, but rather a more subtle bolstering of the roster.
Jorge Polanco has been added to the lineup to play first base and serve as a designated hitter, among other roles. And while they don’t have the cachet of Díaz, two intriguing relievers have been brought in from a neighboring borough to shore up the bullpen.
Devin Williams and Luke Weaver, each of whom spent last season in the Bronx with the Yankees and had subpar campaigns, are now looking to bounce back in Queens. And there is plenty of reason to believe they will.
Here’s why the acquisitions of Williams and Weaver could end up being two of the more savvy -- if not splashy -- moves of the offseason, serving as a bit of a counterweight to the undeniably significant losses of Alonso and Díaz.
Williams still a weapon
Last season, Williams was not the Williams we saw from 2019-24 with the Brewers. That Williams posted a 1.83 ERA and struck out 39.4% of batters he faced thanks in large part to his devastating “airbender” changeup.
But the Williams we saw last year also wasn’t nearly as ineffective as his 4.79 ERA with the Yankees might suggest.
Our Mike Petriello dove into the underlying metrics, and it’s pretty clear that when you account for factors outside of Williams’ control, the picture that emerges is one of an elite reliever who wasn’t elite, but was still good.
As Petriello noted, when you look at Williams’ expected ERA, FIP and Deserved Run Average, each is well below his actual mark of nearly 5:
ERA: 4.79
xERA: 3.09
FIP: 2.68
DRA: 3.01
In other words, if you look at the quality of contact against Williams, it wasn’t his best by any stretch, but it was still good -- his 35.7% hard-hit rate was in the 85th percentile even if it was a career-high for the right-hander.
And then there’s the luck factor -- you never want to be pulled from a game after putting men on base, but the relievers that come in after you can truly make a significant difference in your ERA. As Petriello pointed out, an incredible 70% of runners on base for whom Williams was responsible at the time he came out of a game last year scored (the MLB average was 31%).
Despite the unsightly surface numbers, Williams still struck out 34.7% of batters he faced (97th percentile among qualified pitchers) and there is a lot of red on his Baseball Savant page -- he finished the 2025 campaign in the 90th percentile or higher in expected batting average against (.195, 95th), chase rate (35%, 97th) and whiff rate (37.7%, 99th).
On top of all that, Williams’ actual results were better late in the season and into the playoffs. Over his final nine outings of the regular season in 2025, he didn’t yield a run and struck out 12 while walking two in nine innings of work. In four postseason appearances last fall, he turned in four more scoreless frames.
Weaving a new narrative in ’26
While Williams was only with the Yankees for a season, Weaver was with them for two-plus. In his first full season with the Yanks in 2024, he had a breakout campaign before he took a step back in '25.
In 2024, Weaver was one of the best relievers in the game, posting a 2.89 ERA with a 31.1% strikeout rate. But last year, his ERA was nearly a full run higher after a brutal July (7.15 ERA) and September (9.64).
But as with Williams, his teammate with the Yankees and now with the Mets, there’s more to the story of Weaver’s 2025 campaign.
Over his first 25 appearances, Weaver had a 1.05 ERA, carrying over his success from the prior season. But he was sidelined for about three weeks with a hamstring injury, and he wasn’t the same after that, posting a 5.31 ERA the rest of the way.
That bloated ERA, however, is somewhat deceiving. When you look under the hood of Weaver’s 2025 performance, you see that his xERA, along with his opponents’ xBA, expected weighted on-base average and chase rate were all better in 2025 than they were in ’24.
And Weaver’s changeup, in particular, was very effective.
2024
xERA: 3.31
xBA: .200
xwOBA: .283
Chase rate: 31.9%
Changeup run value: +3
2025
xERA: 3.01
xBA: .196
xwOBA: .272
Chase rate: 32.8%
Changeup run value: +5
Add in the possibility that in-season adjustments Weaver tried to make to combat tipping pitches might have contributed to his struggles, and you have a recipe for a rebound season in 2026.
Will the ’pen be mightier?
The Mets will look a lot different in 2026, but while the lineup at the moment has less thump, the bullpen could be much improved if Weaver and Williams return to form.
New York’s bullpen was right in the middle of the Major League pack last season, with a 3.93 ERA. But a significant improvement in that area could help the Mets get back to the postseason after missing out in 2024.