This article was contributed by DraftKings. For more sports betting insights, check out DraftKings.
This week, we focus on the MVP race, as the All-Star break approaches. Both leagues have some sizable favorites, but is it worth taking them currently? Or do these big favorites open an opportunity to take a longer shot? Let’s dive into it.
Aaron Judge
AL MVP Odds: +165
First Place Votes: 19
Despite grabbing 19 votes from our panel, Judge is no longer the betting favorite to win MVP. Shohei Ohtani has overtaken the lead, which we’ll talk about in a moment. As I mentioned in this article before, I didn’t see the value in taking Judge when he was -120, especially with so much of the season still left to be played. Don’t get me wrong, Judge has been nothing short of stellar for the Yankees, as he’s currently slashing .279/.358/.601 with 30 home runs, 65 RBIs, 67 runs scored, and a 4.2 WAR. He’s on pace to post new career highs in almost every power category and the number of clutch hits he’s had for the Yankees cannot be understated. When he was at -120, it simply made no sense to take him at that number.
There was also going to be a point when Judge cooled off. Is that currently happening during the month of July? It’s only been 10 games as I write this on July 14 but Judge is hitting just .222 this month with one home run, six RBIs, and five runs scored. He still has plenty of time to turn this month around but it’s nowhere near what we’ve seen from him overall in the first half. This could certainly be viewed as nitpicking but when you’ve been as good as Judge, you don’t have a lot to make a case against him being the MVP. At +165, these odds are much more attractive, and this could be the opportunity to have to finally jump back on the bandwagon or get in for the first time.
Shohei Ohtani
AL MVP Odds: +105
First Place Votes: 12
Our panel is still all about Judge and no one can blame them. However, a stellar one-man performance from Ohtani last night against the Astros has shifted the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Not only did he go 2-for-4 at the plate with a triple, two RBIs and a run scored, but he also tossed six innings, allowing just one run on four hits with 12 strikeouts and the win. He literally did it all in the Angels win. You simply cannot argue with that type of production that is so unique within the league.
Ohtani has really excelled on the mound this year as well. After a couple of rough starts against the Yankees and Blue Jays Ohtani has not allowed more than an earned run in six straight starts, giving him a 0.45 ERA, a .179 wOBA, and a 38.7% K% over his last 39 2/3 innings. If he’s pitching AND hitting at this level, it’s going to be hard to argue against him winning back-to-back MVP Awards, even against someone with the season like Judge. What’s most impressive is that you’re still getting plus money on him, albeit barely, at +105. This was the last start for Ohtani before the All-Star break, so his next one won’t come until after then. I don’t imagine the odds to shift drastically between now and then, so this would be the time to get in on him before he makes his next start.
Austin Riley
NL MVP Odds: +2500
First Place Votes: 1
I always try to end this article with a longshot and Riley is the perfect player who fits the mold. Despite being snubbed from the All-Star Game, Riley is playing at that type of level. The odds of him winning MVP have shifted dramatically over the past week, as he was 50-1 as recently as last week and now is 25-1. When he was 50-1 it was insane some of the names that were in front of him, so it only made sense that his odds would drop at such a dramatic rate.
When you look at what Riley has done thus far, it’s crazy to think that we can still get him at 25-1. Amongst qualified hitters in the National League, Riley is ranked second in home runs, seventh in RBIs, third in wOBA, fifth in wRC+, and ninth in WAR. On a Braves team that has made major moves in the National League East and is currently 2 1/2 games back, Riley must be viewed as one of the biggest reasons why that is. He put up MVP-type numbers last season, slashing .303/.367/.531 with 33 home runs, 107 RBIs, 91 runs scored, and a 4.7 WAR. Riley is on pace to smash his home run total and it’s only 88 games into the season compared to the 160 he had last season. At these current odds of 25-1, I think it’s absolutely worth taking a small play here, as the ROI if he did win at this number, would be massive.
Place your MLB bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), visit OPGR.org (OR), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600 (ONT), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).
21+ (18+ NH/WY; 19+ ONT). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/ONT/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions. DraftKings operates pursuant to an Operating Agreement with iGaming Ontario. Please play responsibly.