Here are 5 wise wagers for tonight's games

August 2nd, 2022

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With the Trade Deadline mixing up rosters for Tuesday’s games, there are some player props available on DraftKings Sportsbook that seem a bit more appealing than usual.

Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.

Mariners at Yankees
The wager: Total under 8.5 runs
: -105 (Bet $105 to win $100)

Logan Gilbert has been tough in general this season, but he’s been even better away from Seattle. Although he hasn’t been as good as the Mariners right-hander,  has been solid this year.

More importantly, the New York right-hander has been better at Yankee Stadium than on the road. Taillon has also been very effective in two of his last three starts, giving up just one run in his six-inning outing before the break and shutting out the Royals over six innings in his last start of July. Not having to pitch against Julio Rodríguez should help out Taillon’s cause, too.

The reason so much focus is on Taillon with this prop is Gilbert has been outstanding -- plus, both bullpens are among the game’s best. Gilbert has made 21 starts this season, and the under on Tuesday’s total has hit in 14 of those contests. Tuesday’s under is also 8-3 across his last 11 starts.

Mets at Nationals
The wager: Jacob deGrom over 6.5 strikeouts
: -125 (Bet $125 to win $100)

It’s a high number for a first start after a lengthy absence, but this is the way to celebrate the return of baseball’s best pitcher. After going 68 pitches in his last rehab start, deGrom might get the bump to 75 or 80, but he doesn’t need that many to go over this number.

Now, that might seem like an odd take given the Nationals haven’t been striking out much against right-handers -- whether you look at the entire season or just recent results. However, when you look at their individual strikeout rates, something stands out. Juan Soto had an 11.1% K rate against righties in July, and Josh Bell’s strikeout rate was 16.1%. Both appear to be heading to the Padres, which should make life easier for deGrom.

Also worth noting: deGrom had five starts where he threw 70 or fewer pitches last season. He went over Tuesday’s mark in three of those outings.

Tigers at Twins
The wager: Jonathan Schoop over 1.5 total bases
: +125 (Bet $100 to win $125)

It’s unlikely to see history between a batter and pitcher as the driving force behind a pick, but there are always exceptions to any rule. In this case, Schoop’s history with is one.

Detroit's second baseman is 16-for-44 (.364) in his career against Archer. More importantly, nine of Schoop’s hits off the right-hander have been for extra bases. Six of those have been long balls, which makes Schoop an interesting longshot home run candidate at +500 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Cardinals vs. Cubs
The wager: Adam Wainwright under 2.5 earned runs
: +100 (Bet $100 to win $100)

Not sure how this one is even-money. Earned runs props are typically at 2.5, and Wainwright hasn’t been good enough all-around this season to see this prop shift to 1.5. But the payout is surprising given the setting he’s in Tuesday.

Everyone knows Wainwright does his best work at home. It’s been that way throughout his career, and that’s largely been the case this season. The right-hander has never given up more than three earned runs at home this season, reaching that number three times. Over his last five home starts, opponents have only gotten to him for three earned runs once.

Perhaps most important in all of this: The Cubs' lineup Wainwright will see Tuesday will not be the one he dominated on June 5. Their lineup shouldn’t be nearly as challenging, with the moves they’re expected to make at the Deadline.

Dodgers at Giants
The wager: Mookie Betts over 1.5 total bases
Line: +105 (Bet $100 to win $105)

There’s a lot to like about Betts’ matchup Tuesday. Last month, he posted a 52.5% fly-ball rate against left-handed pitching while only logging a 8.7% soft-contact rate. That led to three doubles, two home runs and a .333 ISO against lefties.

Betts will also face a familiar foe in Alex Wood. L.A.'s leadoff man has seven hits in 15 at-bats (18 plate appearances) against San Francisco’s left-hander. Four of those hits have gone for extra bases. Speaking of which, Betts has logged either one extra-base hit or multiple hits (or both) in five of his last seven games played.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

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