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Red Sox-Yankees highlights the weekend with their games shifting to the national stage, and their matchup features some of the best MLB bets available on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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SATURDAY
Reds vs. Rays
The wager: Hunter Greene over 5.5 strikeouts
Line: -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
The Rays opened as slight favorites, and that has since changed quite a bit. They’re now heavily favored at -155. Makes sense: Greene’s rookie campaign hasn’t exactly gone well. His 5.67 FIP doesn’t indicate there’s much progress on the horizon, either.
Despite his struggles, the hard-throwing rookie is still racking up the strikeouts. Now, he has come up short on this prop in his last three starts, and he’d only done so once before this recent stretch. But that means he’s due to get back on track, and the Rays are the type of lineup that can help a right-hander rack up punchouts. They have a 24.8% strikeout rate against righties this season. Since mid-June, that number has dropped a tick, but only a negligible amount down to 24.5%.
Rockies at D-backs
The wager: Rockies moneyline
Line: +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
The three times the Rockies have trotted out a left-hander against Arizona, Colorado has won. One of those wins came in what was perhaps Kyle Freeland’s best start of the season. Some time has passed since that May 7 contest, but Arizona still isn’t reliable against left-handed pitching. Despite having a reasonable .297 BABIP against lefties since June 15, Arizona ranks among the bottom 10 in hard-contact rate in this split. Even though luck has been on their side, the D-backs are still middling in terms of wOBA and ISO against lefties during that time frame.
Now, they will combat the Rockies with Madison Bumgarner, who can be tough on any lineup on any given day. But, his 4.68 FIP indicates rougher days are on the horizon. One of those days could absolutely come at the hands of the Rockies, despite this game being played in Arizona. Away from Coors Field, the Rockies see a dip in ISO against lefties, but they still have the eight-best wOBA against them since mid-June.
Yankees at Red Sox
The wager: Total over 9 runs
Line: -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
The over has hit on this total in the first two games of this series. With the Red Sox turning back to Kutter Crawford and Boston’s bullpen being overworked, the Yankees could flirt with this number by themselves. Although they didn’t score the last time Jordan Montgomery took the bump, they’ve been providing the left-hander with a lot of run support. The Yankees have scored seven-plus runs in five of the last eight Montgomery starts.
If New York can live up to that trend, that would only require the Red Sox to score three runs for the over to hit. They’ve already done that against Montgomery this season -- and it only took 3 1/3 innings to get to that number. Even though it’s been a while since that season-opening series, that’s representative of what this lineup can do on Saturday. Several Red Sox hitters have good career numbers against Montgomery, who has been up and down of late. Also, Boston has been a top-10 lineup in terms of wOBA, ISO and line-drive rate against left-handed pitching since mid-June.
SUNDAY
Marlins at Mets
The wager: Total under 7.5 runs
Line: -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
Sandy Alcántara has only been hit hard twice this season. The Mariners got to him for five runs on May 1, and the Mets also scored five (four earned) recently on June 24. The Miami right-hander gets another crack at that New York lineup on Sunday, and he’s not about to let them replicate that explosion. Keep in mind, that five-run showing was the second time Alcántara had seen the Mets in as many starts. That’s usually a tough spot for pitchers. Also, in the first of those two outings, he held the Mets to two runs over eight innings.
Oddly enough, those two starts vs. the Mets were some of the few times the over on Sunday’s total has hit in an Alcántara start. Alcántara outings have generated seven or fewer runs in 12 of 17 chances. This under has hit in Taijuan Walker starts at a similar rate (9-for-14). New York’s right-hander also made consecutive starts against his Sunday opponent in June, but he managed to hold the Marlins down both times. That shouldn’t be a problem for him on Sunday since the Marlins, like the Mets, have been a bottom-10 team in wOBA and hard-contact rate against right-handed pitching since June 15.
Astros at Athletics
The wager: Astros minus 1.5 runs
Line: -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
Houston isn’t the best team against the run line as favorites, but Oakland is far worse as underdogs. The Astros are 34-35 against the run line as favorites, which is actually the seventh-best success rate in the league. On the road, they’re 16-17 as run line favorites. Oakland is 39-36 as run line underdogs, but that 52% success rate is among the seven worst percentages in the game. More importantly, the A’s are 10-20 as run line underdogs at home.
Jake Odorizzi is on the bump for Houston, and he’s coming off a rough outing vs. Kansas City. But, that was his first start off the injured list, and he was rolling before that, giving up one or no earned runs in four consecutive starts. That led to the Astros covering for him three times. Additionally, the Athletics haven’t been hitting right-handed pitching well of late, unlike the Royals lineup Odorizzi just saw.
The Astros, on the other hand, are hitting left-handed pitching better than anyone right now. Since mid-June, they lead baseball in ISO and wOBA against lefties, have the third-highest contact rate and the second-lowest ground ball rate. Cole Irvin has a solid 3.35 ERA to this point, but his 4.20 FIP indicates regression is coming. Also, the A’s have lost by two-plus runs in eight of his 14 starts this season, including four of his last five.
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