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Tuesday features a 16-game slate, but we’ll keep our focus on the contests starting in the evening while looking at the best plays available on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.
Tarik Skubal is the real deal. He’s held opponents under this mark in six of his 10 starts this season. In his last six outings, opponents have gone over this number twice. One of those teams was the hard-hitting Astros, and they scored the second run in the fifth. The other was the Guardians, who put up three runs against Skubal after he shut them down in his previous start.
The Pirates have shown some decent power against left-handed pitching, posting a .150 ISO to this point, but they still only have a .298 team wOBA against lefties. Also, Pittsburgh also has one of the higher soft-contact rates against lefties despite hitting the ball on the ground at a regular frequency (44.3% ground-ball rate). Not to mention that the Pirates have one of the 10 highest strikeout rates against left-handed pitching (23.3%).
Going from Colorado to Oakland is a big shift for hitters, but few hit left-handed pitching as well as Atlanta. Leading all of baseball with a .200 ISO against left-handed pitching, the Braves are fourth in both OPS and wOBA against lefties. They also have the highest hard-contact rate against lefties (35.9%) and rank among the top 10 in line-drive rate against them. Cole Irvin boasts a 2.96 ERA coming into Tuesday, but his 4.12 FIP indicates some rough times are ahead. If you’re looking for an individual hitter prop from this one, Ronald Acuña Jr. over 1.5 total bases (-125) is my favorite.
As for Kyle Wright’s part in this, he’s facing an Athletics lineup that ranks in the bottom two in OPS, ISO and wOBA against right-handed pitching. The A’s also have the seventh-highest strikeout rate and fifth-lowest walk rate against righties. All of this plays all too well into the hands of Atlanta’s starter, who has a 2.94 FIP to back his 2.41 ERA.
Monday’s contest vs. Seattle was the first in which Alvarez didn’t register a hit since May 28. It was also only the second time during that span that he didn’t exceed 1.5 total bases. But of course, Alvarez faced a left-hander on Monday, and he’s not hitting lefties well at all this season. On Tuesday, he gets a right-hander, and everyone is well aware of what he can do in that situation -- his 44.9% hard-contact rate, .471 wOBA and .410 ISO against righties serving as evidence.
Alvarez is also 4-for-10 with two home runs and a double against Chris Flexen in his career. Between the Seattle starter’s 43.8% fly-ball rate and 37.5% hard-contact rate against lefties since May 1, Alvarez could very well go yard on Tuesday (+265).
Be it righties or lefties, the Blue Jays have been a nightmare for opposing pitchers since May 24. Win or lose, they’ve scored six-plus runs in 10 of their last 12 games. During that span, the Jays have a .942 OPS, .405 wOBA and .261 ISO. They’ve also posted a whopping 40.7% team hard-contact rate during this stretch. Brad Keller’s 4.44 FIP and 4.15 ERA indicate the Royals can expect more of the same from him, which doesn’t bode well against Toronto’s red-hot lineup.
It’s been almost a month since Rodón earned a win. He was hit or miss throughout May, but he certainly pitched well enough to earn a win or two. Who better to get him back in the win column than the last team he beat?
With this game being in San Francisco, that plays into the lefty’s hand twofold. He’s been lights out at home, posting a 2.35 ERA and 1.62 FIP at Oracle Park this season. And while the Rockies have been harsh on opposing lefties, they’re a bottom-six offense away from Coors Field.
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