When the World Baseball Classic rosters were revealed last week, three teams – their rosters stuffed full of MVPs, Cy Young Award winners, All-Stars and future Hall of Famers – jumped to the top.
While each of the 20 teams are bringing its best roster in tournament history, the United States, Japan, and the Dominican Republic seem to have the deepest, most powerful, and most talented rosters yet. The path to the championship will almost certainly have to go through them. But this isn’t just baseball, this is tournament baseball: Teams don’t get a five or seven-game series to prove themselves. Any one can win on any given day and each contest has the ability to completely rewrite the rest of the tournament.
After all, while the 2023 championship between the U.S. and Japan seemed to be destined by fate, it was only thanks to a Trea Turner grand slam and a Munetaka Murakami walk-off RBI double that kept these nations from being eliminated in the quarterfinal and semifinal, respectively.
If these are the leaders of the pack, who are some of the teams that might surprise this year? Here are my six picks:
1. Venezuela
Venezuela is so stacked, I actually asked a few colleagues, “Can I call them a surprise?” Just a notch below the U.S., D.R., and Japan, and without a trip to the semis since 2009, it made the cut. The lineup is terrifying: Ronald Acuña Jr., Salvador Perez, and Jackson Chourio are as fearsome a middle of the order as you’ll find – and that’s not even mentioning Eugenio Suárez, who hit 49 home runs last year.
The difference maker this year is Venezuela’s rotation. Led by Pablo López and new Red Sox signee Ranger Suárez, with Eduardo Rodriguez and Germán Marquez waiting in the wings, VZ has the necessary arms to match up with almost any team. Daniel Palencia, the Cubs' firebrand closer, ensures that any late leads will likely be held.
2. Canada
Despite a host of great players like Justin Morneau and Joey Votto suiting up for the team over the years, Canada has never advanced beyond the first round in the World Baseball Classic. That should change this year. The San Juan pool is far from easy, but Puerto Rico and Cuba look to be weaker than in previous years, and Canada’s roster is deeper than ever before.
With a rotation led by Jameson Taillon – back for the first time since he played in the 2013 Classic at the age of 21 – Cal Quantrill and Mike Soroka, and a lineup that features the Naylor brothers, slugger Tyler O’Neill (with biceps from a Charles Atlas magazine advertisement), and Marlins outfield prospect Owen Caissie, Canada has more than enough talent on both sides of the ball to advance to Houston. Once in the quarterfinals, anything is possible.
3. Chinese Taipei
Chinese Taipei surprised many at the 2024 Premier12: First it upset rivals Korea in the group stage and then shut out Japan, 4-0, in the championship ending the hosts 27-game international winning streak.
While it’s hard to imagine Chinese Taipei beating Japan again and taking first place in the Tokyo pool, there’s a path for them to finish second if it can beat Korea.
Former MLBer Yu Chang and captain Chieh-Hsien Chen – named MVP of the Premier12 after hitting .652 with two home runs, one of them a three-run dagger in the championship – are the veteran leaders, with P12 championship-winning pitcher and D-backs prospect Yu-Min Lin fronting the rotation. The team was then aggressive in adding talent: Guardians outfielder Stuart Fairchild and Cubs slugging prospect Jonathon Long joined the team to pay homage to their Taiwanese heritage, while a slew of Minor League prospects like pitchers Wei-En Lin (4 Ks in 1 1/3 IP in the March Qualifier) and Po-Yu Chen and infielders Hao-yu Lee and Tsung-Che Cheng – who made his big league debut for 7 hitless ABs last year – add plenty of pro depth. 25-year-old starter Jo-Hsi Hsu, who signed with the NPB’s SoftBank Hawks after impressing in the Qualifier (5 K in 3 2/3 IP), could find stardom, too.
One thing to watch: I’ve heard a lot about an increased emphasis on pitching development using modern MLB-style training methods in Taiwan. If the work pays off and the bullpen shuts down the opposition, that could be the difference maker.
4. Mexico
GM Rodrigo Lopez – himself a former national team star – has done a solid job of assembling a roster that will look to repeat 2023’s breakout performance that has seen baseball’s popularity skyrocket in the country after coming just a few outs away from a spot in the finals. Paired once again with manager Benji Gil – who just won the Caribbean Series with Mexico’s Charros de Jalisco – the team will rely on a blend of Mexican-born stars and Americans with ties to the nation.
Randy Arozarena is back after a star turn in 2023, with 2025 MLB All-Stars Jonathan Aranda, Alejandro Kirk, and Andrés Muñoz – the first time three Mexican-born players were elected to the Midsummer Classic in the same season – all joining up. Javier Assad, Taijuan Walker, and Taj Bradley give the team plenty of starting arms with talented relievers in Brennan Bernardino and Daniel Duarte helping bridge the gap to Muñoz.
Mexico may have been the surprise team in 2023 – but teams will be ready for them this time.
5. Italy
One of the reasons why Mexico may not advance past the first round? Italy, which has been a constant thorn in Mexico’s side in the World Baseball Classic, with the Azzurri pulling off a 6-5 victory in 2013 and scoring five runs in the ninth in 2017 to win, 10-9. It will face Mexico again on March 11 – the last game in the pool – when everything could be on the line.
With new manager Francisco Cervelli, who credits bench coach Jorge Posada for his recruiting skills, Italy has a new ace in Aaron Nola. Should he bounce back to his 2024 form, opponents are in trouble. Samuel Aldegheri, the first Italian born-and-developed pitcher in big league history and Pirates prospect Alessandro Ercolani add homegrown arms. Captain Vinnie Pasquantino then leads a potent offensive attack that features big league youngsters Kyle Teel and Jac Caglianone, who could see this tournament be a launching pad to stardom.
6. Colombia
Upset at being relegated to the Qualifiers after losing to Great Britain in 2023, Colombia came out ready to bash its opponents at the Tucson Qualifier. Colombia swept its way through the tourney, outscoring its opponents, 23-1. Now, captain Jose Quintana joins Julio Teheran – the two rank first and second for all-time wins by a Colombian-born pitcher in the Majors, respectively – at the front of the rotation with Mariners prospect Michael Arroyo, and veteran big leaguers Harold Ramírez, Donovan Solano, Gio Urshela and Jorge Alfaro on the roster.
They’ll likely need to knock off at least one of Puerto Rico or Canada to advance, but Colombia has a better chance of going to the quarterfinals than being relegated back to a Qualifier.