Yanks in odd spot of rooting for rival Rays

October 9th, 2019

As the Yankees advance to the American League Championship Series, have they found themselves rooting for … the Rays?

It’s an odd prospect, given the clubs’ rivalry in the AL East and testy history of late, most notably with , but there is plenty of logic suggesting that the Bronx Bombers should be rooting for a best-of-seven matchup with their familiar foe -- even if the Yankees won’t outrightly say as much.

“You know what, we'll enjoy watching the series unfold, and we'll get ready for whoever it is,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said after New York defeated Minnesota, 5-1, on Monday to complete an AL Division Series sweep.

“A storyline is going to be written. We want it to be a positive one,” Yanks general manager Brian Cashman said. “Just happy to be in this next round. Whoever it happens to be, it's going to be. I'm not rooting for anybody. I was rooting for us to get here. We'll wait and see who we play next and take our shot.”

Here are four reasons why the Yankees might be rooting for the Rays:

1) They are really good against the Rays

No team beat the Rays more in 2019 than the Yankees, who held a 12-7 edge in their regular-season series. For Tampa Bay, the 12 losses to New York were its most to a single opponent in any season in which it reached the postseason. The Rays also lost 12 games to the 2013 Red Sox, who they later fell to in four games in that year’s ALDS.

The Yanks held the Rays to a .220./.287/.390 slash line for a .677 OPS that was Tampa Bay’s fifth-lowest among any of its 20 opponents this season, which deserves merit given that the sample size is far larger against a divisional opponent.

Beyond the numbers, the Yanks seem to play the Rays with confidence. Sabathia’s heated feuds suggest as much, when he left a $500,000 bonus on the field last year by getting ejected for intentionally hitting Jesús Sucre two innings shy of a contractual incentive. Those tensions boiled over in an incident in May when Sabathia nearly plucked Austin Meadows, and again in July when the benches cleared after he jawed with Avisail Garcia.

Sabathia’s ailing pitching shoulder left him off the ALDS roster, but he remained optimistic about pitching in the ALCS.

2) They would get home-field advantage

Avoiding the AL Wild Card Game might not have been the only virtue in edging the Rays in the AL East. Their seven-game edge in the regular-season standings would also give New York home-field advantage over the best-of-seven ALCS. In that scenario, Games 1-2 and 6-7 would be played at Yankee Stadium.

Think that might play a factor? The Yanks went a whopping 8-1 against the Rays at home this season, and overall, they were 57-24 in the Bronx -- the third-best home record in the Majors behind only the Astros (60-21) and Dodgers (59-22).

“It doesn’t really matter to me who we play to be honest,” Yankees center fielder Brett Gardner said. “If we play our game and play well, we’ll win and if we don’t, we won’t. It’s as simple as that. Rays or Astros, it doesn’t matter. If we play the way we’re capable of playing, we don’t have anything to worry about.

“Doesn't matter,” Gleyber Torres said. “We'll prepare for each team and we'll see what happens.”

3) They would avoid the Astros

As dominant as the Yankees looked against the Twins, the Astros are a generational juggernaut -- and across the board. Offensively, no club drew more walks, struck out less and was more tangibly valuable in 2019 than Houston, whose .848 OPS, 125 wRC+ and 40.8 fWAR led the Majors by a respectable margin.

On the mound, they boast the best 1-2 starting rotation punch in AL Cy Young Award favorites Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, with six-time All-Star Zack Greinke as their No. 3. And when Houston turns it over to its bullpen, the club boasted a 3.75 ERA among relievers in the regular season, second-best in the Majors.

In addition to the Cy Young Award, the Astros’ roster could house the AL MVP Award winner (Alex Bregman) and the AL Rookie of the Year Award winner (Yordan Alvarez), meaning they could become the first club in MLB history to make a clean sweep.

Sure, anything can happen in the postseason, and any club the Yanks match up with obviously presents a challenge given that this is down to the round-of-four. But there’s no denying that avoiding a Houston club that was heavily favored against Tampa Bay would be a huge win.

“I expect a tough series. They’re a really good team, if they get past Tampa,” DJ LeMahieu said of a potential matchup with Houston. “Tampa’s a good team, too. But if we just keep playing like we have all year, like we did this series, we have a good chance.”

For what it’s worth, the Yankees went 3-4 against the Astros in 2019, with all of those games played during the first half. And many Yankees, including Aaron Judge, have cited their seven-game ALCS defeat to Houston in 2017 as a means for motivation.

“I’ve mentioned it just as something just to fuel us, but it doesn’t matter who we face going forward,” Judge said. “We just need to continue to play our game and if we do that, we’ll be where we want to be.”

4) They could at least avoid Cole and Verlander in Game 1

It’s possible that some Yankees might prefer to face the Astros, perhaps believing the old axiom that to be the best you have to beat the best. However, at the very least, many were rooting hard for the Rays to win on Tuesday and extend their ALDS to five games.

“Why not?” Cashman said when asked if he’d like to see just that.

Justin Verlander, who started on short rest on Tuesday and took the loss, would be lined up to start Sunday’s Game 2 on regular rest, and Gerrit Cole, who threw a career-high 118 pitches in a record-setting performance his last time out, is starting the winner-take-all ALDS Game 5 on Thursday at Minute Maid Park. If the Astros beat the Rays, that’d line him up to start ALCS Game 3 next Tuesday on regular rest.

It could be a reach for Houston to turn to Cole for an abbreviated outing on just two days’ rest in Game 2, particularly so early in the series, but if so, it almost certainly wouldn’t be for more than an inning, perhaps to serve as his bullpen day.

Game 1 of the ALCS will be on Saturday. The Yankees will host it if they face Tampa Bay, and be on the road if their opponent is Houston. All ALCS games will air on FOX/FS1, and game times are to be determined.