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Yankees vs. White Sox Odds

Yankees Odds: +120

White Sox Odds: -140

Over/Under: 8.5

Time: Saturday, 7:10 p.m. ET

TV: MLB.TV

Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings.

Stuck in the heat of the playoff race, the New York Yankees will look to rebound from a heartbreaking loss to the Chicago White Sox at the Field of Dreams to even the series with the American League Central leaders on Saturday night.

Jameson Taillon will head to the mound in the midst of an impressive summer against an ever-volatile Dylan Cease, who’s had just as many positives as negatives over the last two months.

What are we to do in this potential playoff matchup? Let’s take a deeper look.

New York Yankees

You have to go back to July 25, when the Yankees fell in Boston on an afternoon which featured a Domingo Germán no-hit bid in the seventh inning, to find the last time the Bronx Bombers lost a series. Since then, the sailing has been smooth with 12 wins in 17 games, including two improbable victories at Tropicana Field.

So a series loss to the White Sox here would be devastating, given the run this team is on and also considering that this represents the highest competition level New York has seen in the month of August.

Since that aforementioned loss to the Red Sox, the Yankees haven’t really done anything special at the plate, rating as a slightly below-average offense with a 98 wRC+ and just a .135 ISO. That’s why the prospect of this team going on the road, away from the band box that is Yankee Stadium, is so scary. With that said, it’s going to find a relatively easy time hitting at Guaranteed Rate Field, which has a positive park factor (1.131) when it comes to homers.

Finally, there’s Jameson Taillon, who has been brilliant since the calendar turned to July. Since then, he’s allowed just six earned runs in 43 1/3 innings, good for a 1.24 ERA, and racked up 39 strikeouts.

This was always something that the ERA indicators saw as a possibility, and for all the pitchers out there who haven’t seen the positive regression this year that the analytics would point to, it’s nice to see at least one guy have his luck turn.

Chicago White Sox

Chicago is in an impervious state at the moment, sitting 11 games clear of Cleveland in the AL Central and choosing to give Carlos Rodón — one of the top arms in the league — an indefinite break to rest his sore shoulder.

The games don’t really matter all that much and for as many triumphs that there have been (the walk-off homer at the Field of Dreams, a sweep of the Cubs) there have been plenty of low moments (losing five of seven to Kansas City). It’s really a mystery which White Sox team you’re going to get on any given night.

The thing that’s changed of late with this team, though, is its health. The south-siders have welcomed back Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert. In those three games with the pair active, the South Siders have combined for 23 runs with Robert collecting three hits, including a pair of doubles.

Dylan Cease is the listed probable for the White Sox on Saturday, which at times has been great news and at others has been very bad.

The 25-year-old has the propensity to strike many guys out and has racked up 21 over his last two outings, but he’s also allowed three runs in four of his last five trips to the hill. Cease has been particularly victimized by the walk, issuing five free passes in his last two starts, and also carries a poor 9.3% barrel rate into this start.

Yankees-White Sox Pick

A pitcher struggling with walks and barrels should be music to the Yankees’ ears, considering their standing as the second-best team in the big leagues in hard-hit rate, sixth-ranked barrel rate and league-leading 10.8% walk rate. The Yankees do rank eighth in strikeout rate, but generally speaking 24.3% isn’t the worst number in the world. The True Outcome they’ve struggled with has really been the homer.

So at a decent park for dingers and against a pitcher with a suffering barrel rate, the Yankees should find some success at the dish here. It helps that Cease surrendered five runs at Yankee Stadium earlier this year, too.

Together with a surging Taillon, I’d set the Yankees as the clear favorite here at home and think there’s still a little value left on them in Chicago.

Pick: Yankees ML (+120)