Trade Deadline Insider: What's next after Scherzer deal?

July 30th, 2023

Thursday night, the Mets announced their intention to become a seller with the trade of David Robertson to the Marlins.

Less than 48 hours later, the Mets showed just how serious they are about that approach.

New York agreed on Saturday to send Max Scherzer and roughly $36 million to Texas in exchange for infield prospect Luisangel Acuña -- the brother of Braves superstar Ronald Acuña Jr. -- in a deal that shook the baseball world to its core. The trade was made official on Sunday.

The Rangers will pay Scherzer -- who exercised his $43.33 million option for 2024, meaning he will be with Texas through the end of next season -- $22.5 million of the roughly $59 million he’s owed, with the Mets picking up the remaining $36 million of the deal.

Now that Scherzer is no longer in New York, where does this leave the Mets and the trade market?

Flushing fire sale?
Having already dealt Robertson and Scherzer, what will the Mets do next?

The obvious name to watch is Justin Verlander, who is signed for $43.33 million in 2024 and has a $35 million vesting player option for 2025. Owner Steve Cohen was willing to spend $36 million -- plus roughly $17 million in luxury tax -- to deal Scherzer for the younger Acuña, so would he approve a similar deal to ship Verlander out in exchange for young talent?

“I think they hold on to Verlander,” a National League executive said. “Somebody still has to pitch in 2024.”

Should the Mets try to trade Verlander, they will run into the same hurdles they dealt with in the Scherzer deal:

• Verlander has a full no-trade clause
• He’s owed roughly $59 million through the end of 2024, plus that $35 million vesting player option for 2025.

Teams to watch if the Mets shop Verlander include the Dodgers and Astros, though Houston’s farm system is thin, with only one entry in MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 list: OF Drew Gilbert (No. 68).

The Mets will assuredly make more moves between now and Tuesday. Impending free agents Tommy Pham and Carlos Carrasco are likely to be traded, as are Mark Canha and Brooks Raley, who each have club options for 2024.

One other thing to think about: Even as they’re paying down Scherzer’s hefty salary, the Mets cleared $22.5 million in payroll, which might very well be used in Cohen’s attempt to sign impending free agent Shohei Ohtani this offseason.

Lone Star staff
Scherzer’s arrival in Texas addressed a primary need for the Rangers, who have gotten uneven performances this season from Martín Pérez and Andrew Heaney at the back end of the rotation.

Nathan Eovaldi has been outstanding this year, but he missed his last start with elbow soreness, yet another signal that a trade for a starter was necessary. Assuming Eovaldi comes back without any issues, the Rangers will now potentially go to the playoffs with Eovaldi, Scherzer and Dane Dunning as their top three starters as they try to win the first World Series title in franchise history.

Jon Gray, who had a 2.32 ERA in 12 starts to begin the season, has struggled for the past six weeks, posting a 6.49 ERA over his past seven outings. Sources say the Rangers will look to add another starter by Tuesday, hoping to upgrade the back of the rotation as they try to hold off the Astros in the American League West.

Bringing in another starter isn’t all that Texas will try to accomplish in the next three days, as the bullpen continues to be a focus for general manager Chris Young.

The Rangers acquired Aroldis Chapman last month, but Texas’ 4.80 bullpen ERA ranks 13th in the AL. Jordan Hicks, Scott Barlow, Paul Sewald and Brent Suter are among the relievers available on the trade market, but the Rangers could be holding out to see if the Padres become sellers, opening the door for a Josh Hader trade.

“They are going for it,” an AL executive said.

Start it up
Scherzer became the third starting pitcher traded since Wednesday, joining Lucas Giolito (Angels) and Lance Lynn (Dodgers). With a number of contenders seeking rotation upgrades between now and Tuesday, which pitchers might still be on the move?

The Cardinals figure to move Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty, their pair of impending free agents, while the Tigers are likely to trade Eduardo Rodriguez -- who can opt out of the final three years and $49 million of his contract at the end of the season -- and Michael Lorenzen, who will be a free agent this winter.

The Guardians could move Aaron Civale in an attempt to add offense, shopping the right-hander with two-plus years of control. Other controllable starters including Dylan Cease (White Sox), Mitch Keller (Pirates) and Logan Gilbert (Mariners) seem unlikely to be dealt barring a team coming in with a Godfather offer.

Marcus Stroman -- who, like E-Rod, can opt out of his contract and become a free agent at the end of the season -- had been considered a near-lock to be traded, but the Cubs’ recent play has Chicago in the postseason picture, likely taking him out of play on the trade market.

The biggest wild card in the pitching market? Blake Snell.

The Padres’ back-to-back wins over the Rangers this weekend have San Diego within three games of .500, only 5 1/2 games behind the Phillies for the final NL Wild Card spot. If the Padres finish off the sweep on Sunday before heading to Colorado to face the last-place Rockies, GM A.J. Preller could decide to become a buyer.

In the event that San Diego loses two in a row and falls further back in the race, Preller could pivot to become a seller, which would instantly make Snell -- an impending free agent who has pitched to a 0.78 ERA in 10 starts over the past two months -- the best pitcher available.