7 not-so-crazy September predictions

September 2nd, 2020

You want close races? We got ‘em, folks. You want surprise endings? Plenty of those, too. All these kids have transformed races. We’re not just talking about Luis Robert and Fernando Tatis Jr., although that’s a great place to start.

The Astros have been saved by rookies. The Marlins have been lifted by them. With 16 teams making the playoffs -- I’d vote to make it permanent because of precisely what we’re seeing now -- very little is settled.

Welcome to September, which might just be the wildest of them all. Here are seven not-so-crazy predictions:

1) You like close races, you’re going to love a three-way tie in the AL Central.
There’s just no other way this thing is going to play out. It has to end this way. Not with the Twins, Indians and White Sox bunched together in the standings. Not this of all seasons. The thing is, any of these teams is capable of a deep October run, and all three could end up in the postseason. The White Sox are the team to watch. With all that youth, their energy is going to be hugely entertaining. And remember, there won’t be tiebreaker games, so this will come down to head-to-head and/or intradivision records.

2) It makes no sense that the Astros will win the AL West again. They’ll do it anyway.
The Astros knew it would be a season of tests. They just didn’t think it would include injuries forcing them to use 12 rookie pitchers, including nine making their Major League debut. From all this uncertainty, something unexpected has happened: The Astros rode that pitching depth and outfielder Kyle Tucker’s breakout to a 13-5 finish to August that got them to within 2 1/2 games of the A’s in the AL West. That’s where all that postseason pressure will pay off. This season is more proof that Dusty Baker is one of the best ever.

3) Marlins make the playoffs! Marlins make the playoffs!
To watch this team is to fall in love with baseball all over again. They’re wildly entertaining. They throw hard, run the bases like wild men and line up hard-throwing kid pitchers. Yes, they’re a bit offensively challenged, but the acquisition of Starling Marte should help that. Miami may be the most dangerous kind of postseason team, and it’s so much fun to type those words. That is, the Marlins don’t know what they don’t know. Want to grab a bat and stand in the box against Pablo López? (Answer: You don’t)

And as a reminder: The Marlins have been to the postseason twice and won the World Series twice. In other words, they’ve never lost a postseason series. Watch out!

4) Luis Robert takes over the AL MVP race. As for the NL winner, you already know.
Right, Tatis is your NL MVP, and it’s not going to be close. As for the AL, September will belong to the 23-year-old White Sox star. He used the last two weeks of August to position himself as the front-runner by hitting .341, slugging .902 and homering in seven of 11 games. Just when we thought the next tidal wave of young talent couldn’t be as dazzling as the last one, here they come to sweep us off our feet again.

5) Trevor Rosenthal will be the Padres' most important acquisition for 2020.
The Padres' bullpen has shown some cracks in recent weeks, with a 4.40 ERA and four blown saves in seven chances since closer Kirby Yates was injured on Aug. 14. Now with Drew Pomeranz back from the injured list, he can team with the newly acquired Rosenthal to give the Padres some late-inning security to close out games. Mike Clevinger is a long-term rotation anchor, but Rosenthal may save the Padres in 2020.

6) Uncle Larry and the Phillies are both hot. Bryce Harper is about to be. Hello, postseason.
This moment is why Harper was signed by the Phillies in the first place. This is where he delivers. Just watch. He was baseball’s best player for almost a month at the beginning of this season before hitting one of the coldest streaks of his career. Now, with Andrew McCutchen, aka Uncle Larry, on a tear and the Phillies bullpen upgraded, the stage is set for Harper to dominate. Curtain calls are cool even in an empty ballpark.

7) Trade Deadline upgrades? The Rays see you and raise you.
Quite an August for Tampa Bay, which won 18 of its last 21 despite 11 pitchers on the injured list. Now, the Rays are about to get the kind of boost a team can ride right through October, and they didn’t have to trade any prospects to do it. Charlie Morton is coming back from the IL. Also Ryan Yarbrough, Nick Anderson and Oliver Drake. While the A’s, Twins and Yankees remain popular postseason picks in the AL, Tampa Bay may blow past all of them in October and will win the AL East for the first time since 2010.