New talent at top of Rookie Power Rankings

May 19th, 2021

Jazz is emphasized on the two and the four. In this case, there's a pretty big emphasis on the one as well.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. moves into the top slot of the Rookie Power Rankings for the first time in the 2021 season, freshly off the injured list following a hamstring issue. Chisholm has looked no worse for wear since his return on Sunday and jumped two spots in the rankings after others above him mellowed out some since the last edition on May 5. Other breakout stars like Yermín Mercedes and Adolis García made similar leaps as they solidified their cases to win a Rookie of the Year Award at season’s end.

Speaking of which, let this be a reminder that the RPR is a ranking of the rookies most likely to win the Rookie of the Year Awards in 2021, based on both their current performance and projections for the rest of the way. All stats are through Tuesday's games.

1. Jazz Chisholm Jr., 2B/SS, Marlins (graduated from Top 30)
Previous Rookie Power Rank: 3

Chisholm picked up right where he left off following his return from the IL on Sunday and has gone 4-for-9 (.444) with a homer and a stolen base since then. The homer on Tuesday was no cheapo either, coming off a 100.5 mph, high-and-tight fastball from left-hander Jose Alvardo that Chisholm yanked for a long ball to right. The 23-year-old infielder continues to show a unique blend of power and speed and has hit even better than expected to this point with a .308/.382/.577 line, five homers and National League-best eight steals through 23 games. So long as he continues to stay healthy, he remains one of the most electric players in baseball, regardless of rookie status.

2. Dylan Carlson, OF, Cardinals (graduated from Top 30)
Previous RPR: 1

Carlson’s numbers have been solid, if pedestrian, since the last edition of these rankings, causing him to drop out from the top spot. He has batted .316 over the last two weeks, but his last extra-base hit came all the way back on May 1. The switch-hitting outfielder’s award case remains strong because of his consistent playing time and solid approach at the plate that should lead to steady offensive production the remainder of the summer. Primarily hitting from the No. 2 spot in the lineup, Carlson is batting .287/.379/.427 with three homers through 42 games.

3. Trevor Rogers, LHP, Marlins (graduated from Top 30)
Previous RPR: 5

Make that two Marlins rookies among the first three. Truthfully, Rogers – the top-ranked pitcher on the list – has as good a case as anyone based on performance to this point. His 1.84 ERA is fifth-best among all qualified starters (rookies or not), and he has yet to allow more than three earned runs in any of his eight starts. The 23-year-old southpaws also leads all rooks with 57 strikeouts through 44 innings. Rogers is relying on his mid-90s heater more than ever with promising results that look like they won’t be stopping anytime soon.

4. Yermín Mercedes, DH, White Sox (graduated from Top 30)
Previous RPR: 10

No reason yet to apply the brakes on the Mercedes train. The White Sox designated hitter continues to lead the Majors with a .368 average and is tops among all rookies in hits (49), extra-base hits (14), total bases (76) and OPS (.988). A complete lack of a defensive home and a belief that he could come crashing down to earth (fueled by a below-average hard-hit rate) keep Mercedes from the top three places for now, but the time for doubting the Chicago slugger is running short.

5. Ian Anderson, RHP, Braves (graduated from Top 30)
Previous RPR: 2

Some slips in control have allowed Anderson to drop after he walked seven batters over 12 innings in his two outings since the last RPR. But they were otherwise quality starts by definition, allowing his season ERA to stand at a sturdy 3.20 through eight appearances (45 innings). The 23-year-old right-hander has struck out 47 and walked 21 in that span. Anderson’s changeup, in particular, remains virtually untouchable, and if he can find the zone with more regularity, he will force the issue for a return to a higher ranking.

6. Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays (graduated from Top 30)
Previous RPR: 4

Arozarena opened the season at No. 2 in the RPR and has slowly slipped more and more back the further away he gets from his historic 2020 postseason run. He enters Wednesday with a .257/.353/.378 line, four homers and four stolen bases through 26 games – numbers that still work out to an above-average 116 wRC+. The Rays outfielder also looks improved defensively while splitting his time between the two corners, aiding his eventual award case. With average and max exit velocities that remain in the 80th percentiles and above, the potential for Arozarena to pop off at any moment remains. He can start by elevating the ball more; 56.7 percent of his batted balls have been on the ground to this point.

7 (tied). Michael Kopech, RHP, White Sox (graduated from Top 30)
Previous RPR: 6

The White Sox continue to utilize Kopech in multiple roles in order to monitor his innings in his return to a regular-season mound for the first time since 2018. One thing that hasn’t changed – the results. Kopech hasn’t allowed more than one run in any of his 11 appearances this season, and that includes three starts. He has managed a 1.65 ERA with 40 strikeouts in 27 1/3 innings in that time on the strength of his fastball-slider combo. An innings limit could be the only thing holding the right-hander back from a more prominent case in the award race.

7 (tied). Adolis García, OF, Rangers (graduated from Top 30)
Previous RPR: Unranked

Only one previously unranked rookie cracked this edition’s top 10, but who else could it be? García has been an absolute force since he was called up on April 13. His 11 homers are tied with Shohei Ohtani for the most in all of the Majors since that date, and he is tied with Nolan Arenado with 75 total bases for second-most in that span. For reference, Mercedes (six) is the only other rookie with more than five homers so far in 2021. García has also been a defensive star in center, only helping his case. The right-handed slugger’s willingness to chase pitches out of the zone could eventually hurt him, but the power potential is undeniable at this stage.

9. Emmanuel Clase, RHP, Indians (graduated from Top 30)
Previous RPR: 9

Cleveland’s closer gave up two earned runs in a loss on May 7. They were his first of the season. They have also been his only of the season. Clase – he of the 100 mph cutter – owns a 1.00 ERA with 19 strikeouts and nine walks in 20 appearances (18 innings). He remains the only rookie with more than two saves, and he has seven. Even though relievers have a heightened challenge in any award race, Clase has shown the goods to fit the bill.

10. Andrew Vaughn, 1B/OF, White Sox (graduated from Top 30)
Previous RPR: 8

Make it three rookies on this list for the club with the best winning percentage in the American League. Injuries to Luis Robert, Eloy Jiménez and José Abreu have forced the White Sox to rely even more heavily on Vaughn in recent weeks between with spells in left field and first base (and even one in right). The former Cal star has managed a .232/.328/.374 line with two homers and eight doubles through 31 games, making him an average batter so far with a 101 wRC+. The bet here is that Vaughn, who entered 2021 with only 55 career Minor League games, can continue to adjust to the top level and show the plus hit and power tools that made him the third overall pick two years ago.

Others receiving votes: Jarred Kelenic, Bobby Dalbec, Nick Madrigal, Casey Mize, Luis Garcia

Dropping out: Ke’Bryan Hayes