Here's the savviest ROY bet (and one sneaky pick)

May 26th, 2022

This article was contributed by DraftKings. For more sports betting insights, check out DraftKings.com.

This is truly an unbelievable time in Major League Baseball. The league is flush with new, top young prospects that either made the Major League roster or have been called up since. In fact, when Opening Day occurred, three of the top five prospects, according to MLB Pipeline, made their Opening Day rosters: Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals, Julio Rodríguez of the Mariners, and Spencer Torkelson of the Tigers. Since then, the Top 100 has been realigned, but we’ve also seen the arrival of Adley Rutschman to the Orioles.

I’ll comb through the stacked field of potential Rookie of the Year candidates and their odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. With the plethora of options available, you can score some really good value at this point.

Follow me on Twitter (@SBuchanan24) for updates.

Julio Rodríguez, OF, Mariners
First-place votes: 10
AL ROY odds: +260

Rodríguez currently owns the second-best odds to take down the Rookie of the Year Award in the American League, trailing Jeremy Peña (2-1) of the Astros. While Peña deservedly earned the best odds, Rodríguez is closing in quickly after a very rough start to the season. The numbers we saw in April didn't paint the true picture of what kind of player Rodríguez is. In 20 games and 73 at-bats that month, he slashed just .206/.284/.260 with zero home runs, six RBIs and 30 strikeouts. The only saving grace in April was his nine stolen bases, which was more than 11 teams had in total. The turn of the calendar to May seemed to do wonders, and now the true Rodríguez has finally emerged.

As of this writing, Rodríguez has hit .315/.351/.522 with five home runs, 14 RBIs and an additional four stolen bases in May. His speed ranks among the best in the Majors; his average Sprint Speed of 29.8 feet per second ranks in the 98th percentile in the Majors. In a day and age where the stolen base feels like a lost art, the rookie currently leads the Majors in the category. Only six players, including Rodríguez, have double-digit steals. Witt Jr. is the next rookie ranked in this category, and he currently has six. Being a five-tool player, Rodríguez has a leg up on the competition, and he’s currently my favorite to take down this prestigious title. I have no qualms taking him at the current +260 price tag.

Adley Rutschman, C, Orioles
First-place votes: 1
AL ROY odds: +1000

The No. 1 overall prospect once the season began, Rutschman finally got the call to the bigs and made his debut on May 21. He quickly made an impact, hitting a triple for his first Major League hit. Rutschman is a polished switch-hitter who also excels at a high level behind the plate. He tore through the Orioles’ Minor League system beginning in 2019 and never stayed at one level long. His time in Double-A was his longest tenure at any level, playing 80 games there in 2021. That was our biggest sample of him at any level, and he slashed .271/.392/.508 with 18 home runs, 55 RBIs and 61 runs scored there.

As of this writing, we’ve seen him play in just five big league games, so the sample size is microscopic. However, if he hits and plays anything like what we’ve seen in the Minors, 10-1 odds won’t be sticking around much longer. Granted, I’m a big believer that Rodríguez will take down this award, but I feel as if Rutschman could be one of the biggest competitors. Rutschman is an on-base machine and has shown unbelievable patience at the plate. Through his time in the Minors, he never had a BB% lower than 12.5% and reached as high as 15.4%, which was during his time in Double-A. He also is a tough strikeout, averaging just a 16.8% K% through 123 games in Double-A and Triple-A in 2021. The strikeouts that Rodríguez has endured thus far will keep his average down a bit -- two advantages for Rutschman. He’s absolutely worth a play at 10-1.

Alek Thomas, OF, D-backs
First-place votes: 0
NL ROY odds: +850

Not enough love for Thomas! Like the American League, the National League has a number of solid options when choosing whom to bet on to win this award. I think this is a great opportunity to consider Thomas, who didn’t get the type of hype some of the other rookies did. Don’t let that fool you, though -- he’s a well-rounded hitter with some pop in his bat. During his final stop in Triple-A before being called up, Thomas was slashing .277/.362/.495 with four home runs, 14 RBIs, 19 runs scored and three stolen bases. He’s another patient hitter at the plate who doesn’t strike out much. Playing on a team that’s struggling like the D-backs doesn’t give him the proper spotlight, but he’s a difference maker.

Thomas played in both Double-A and Triple-A from 2021-22 and produced big power numbers at each level. He had an ISO of no less than .218 and topped out at .289 during his 34 games at Triple-A. Since coming up, he’s backed up those Minor League numbers, boasting an ISO of .245 through 16 games. His advanced numbers at the Major League level are also on point, as he’s currently hitting .283 with an xBA of .286. Thomas has also been crushing breaking pitches early on, hitting .471 (!) against them with an xBA of .349. If he continues this type of pace, regardless of the team he’s on, the attention will come. I love grabbing him in the National League at this number.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

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