These are your 3 best bets for Rookie of the Year

June 16th, 2022

This article was contributed by DraftKings. For more sports betting insights, check out DraftKings Playbook.

Thursday is our day to check in on the offseason award candidates. This week, we divulge into potential Rookie of the Year recipients, as the sample sizes of these players continue to grow. As always, we match up to how our MLB.com votes coincide with the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook and help you make the best decision possible on how to lay some green on.

Julio Rodríguez
First-Place Votes: 21
AL Rookie of the Year Odds: +110

Despite not receiving the most first-place votes for ROY, Rodríguez leads overall in votes to take the top spot. Honestly, this is how it should be.  Rodríguez has emerged from his early April struggles to be one of the most prominent bats in the Mariners lineup. Playing 20 games in April, Rodríguez was looking at a slash line of .205/.284/.260 with zero home runs, six RBIs, and 30 (!) strikeouts. I truly wondered if the Mariners were going to opt him back down to the Minors, as they’ve done a few times already with Jarred Kelenic. Luckily for them, the patience paid off and Rodríguez now looks as if he’s been in the Majors for years. Since the calendar turned to May, Rodríguez is slashing .263/.329/.422 with eight home runs, 28 RBIs, and has swiped 17 bases. His mix of speed and power makes him one of the biggest threats in this Mariners lineup and he currently has a WAR of 1.8, which is tied for the second-best mark on the team with J.P. Crawford.

What sets Rodríguez over Jeremy Peña, who did receive the most first-place votes, is the speed on the basepaths. The stolen base feels like a dying art in baseball, but Rodríguez currently leads the league. He’s one of 18 players with double-digit steals and has only been caught three times. While Peña can steal a base as well, he’s way down the list with only six on the season. The unfortunate aspect of this all is that you’re not getting much value for Rodríguez at +110. As recent as a week ago, Rodríguez was double the odds to win ROY at +220. I still firmly believe that Rodríguez will take this down in the end, but I think the better course of action is to wait for the odds to fall to a more favorable number.

Bobby Witt Jr.
First-Place Votes: 2
AL Rookie of the Year Odds: +800

Witt Jr. is my favorite longer-odd candidate on the board. With how close Rodríguez and Peña are, we’re getting better value on Witt Jr. I think with how well Rodríguez and Peña have started off; Witt has fallen under the radar a bit. This is a situation to capitalize on. Through 60 games, the Royals rookie is slashing .246/.289/.452 with eight home runs, 32 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases. Coming into the season, Witt was one of the top-ranked prospects in all of baseball and he's lived up to the hype. He’s like Rodríguez, boasting a very strong blend of power and speed. Of his 56 total hits, 27 have gone for extra bases. He’s continued this pace during the month of June, with five of his 15 hits going for extras.

These are the type of odds that I think you should be taking advantage of. Witt is still very much in this race despite being 8-1. If he starts to go on a run, these odds will start to fall, especially if either Rodríguez or Peña struggles at any point. The field drops off dramatically after Witt, as Joe Ryan of the Twins has the next best odds at 17-1. This essentially brings it down to a three-man race, and unless someone starts mashing (shoutout Adley Rutschman, 25-1), I’d expect it to stay this way moving forward. Taking Witt at his current odds can also be hedged out with Rodríguez or Peña, depending on how they perform during the rest of the season. It’s absolutely worth a shot at this point.

Nolan Gorman
First-Place Votes: 1
NL Rookie of the Year Odds: +380

This is shocking to me. Gorman only earned one first-place vote, and I’d like to shake that person’s hand. Gorman has injected himself into the Cardinals lineup and has made a huge impact immediately. Through 24 games, Gorman is slashing .266/.341/.430 with three home runs, 12 RBIs, and 13 runs scored. The lefty has mostly been hitting second in the order, doing so in 14 games. In the two-hole, he’s hitting .302 with all three of his home runs.

Gorman got the call up after crushing in Triple-A through 34 games. In that short span, he was slashing .308/.367/.677 with an absurd 15 home runs, 23 RBIs, and 31 runs scored. That quick start drew the attention of a team that was struggling to hit for power, and Gorman has done that already. While his strikeout numbers are a bit high, that’s been something that has followed him throughout his career in the Minors. He does, however, draw a good number of walks as well. With an 8.2 BB% in Triple-A, Gorman will be someone who’ll continue to get on base and come around to score, especially with a potential MVP candidate hitting behind him in Paul Goldschmidt. With the second-best odds on the board at DraftKings Sportsbook, I still see the value in taking him at +380, as he trails only MacKenzie Gore at +185. While the National League is a bit more crowded when it comes to odds to win this award, Gorman, in my opinion, should be viewed as one of the leading candidates.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

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