Judge headlines top tier of fantasy outfielders

March 4th, 2023

The outfield is not only home to some of baseball's biggest stars but also the position around which many fantasy managers will build their lineups in 2023.

Seven of the top nine players in MLB.com's fantasy rankings this year are outfielders, led by reigning American League MVP Aaron Judge. Those who eschew picking an outfielder in the first two rounds can still find some solid choices later, but passing on the elite options at the position isn’t easy.

Whichever route you choose to take, this tier-by-tier guide can help.

Tier 1: Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuña Jr., Julio Rodríguez, Kyle Tucker, Juan Soto, Yordan Alvarez, Mookie Betts

Judge may have a hard time matching his incredible output from last season, when he set an AL record with 62 homers and produced 131 RBIs, 133 runs, 16 steals, a .311 average and a 1.111 OPS. But the 30-year-old has now put together back-to-back healthy seasons and is one of 10 players all time with multiple 50-homer campaigns.

Acuña’s production in his return from a torn ACL wasn’t up to his usual standards, but as he moves further away from that injury, the 25-year-old could get back to his 30/30 ways, and maybe even 40/40. (Steamer projects him for 30 homers and 43 steals.)

Along with Trea Turner and José Ramírez, Judge and Acuña both have a strong case to be the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy leagues, and J-Rod might be in that spot a year from now if he makes a leap in Year 2. The reigning AL Rookie of the Year is another 30/30 threat. Tucker is, too. He had 30 homers and 25 steals last season.

Up next are Soto, whose definition of a “down” year still included 27 homers, 93 runs, 135 walks and an .853 OPS; and Alvarez, one of two qualifiers (Judge was the other) who posted an OPS north of 1.000 in 2022.

Betts remains a fine first-round choice as well after going 35/12 with an NL-leading 117 runs over 142 games last year.

Tier 2: Mike Trout, Michael Harris II, Randy Arozarena, Luis Robert, Cedric Mullins II

Trout had a lengthy run as the consensus No. 1 fantasy pick, but injury problems and a decline in stolen bases have dropped him down the rankings some. He’s still a top 10 outfielder after socking 40 dingers and posting a .999 OPS over 119 games in 2022.

After finishing with 19 homers, 20 steals and a .297 average across 114 games and winning the NL Rookie of the Year Award last season, Harris cracks Tier 2. He’s followed by Arozarena, the AL Rookie of the Year in 2021. The Rays outfielder has recorded 40 homers and 52 steals over the past two years.

Robert remains a potential fantasy stud, but injuries have limited him to 166 games over the past two seasons, during which he has hit .307 with 25 home runs and 17 steals.

Mullins (16 HR, 34 SB) took a step back last season after his 30/30 breakout in 2021, but he’s still a solid early-round option.

Tier 3: Kyle Schwarber, Daulton Varsho, Adolis García, Teoscar Hernández, Starling Marte, Eloy Jiménez, George Springer, Corbin Carroll, Bryan Reynolds, Byron Buxton

Long considered a potential 40-homer bat, Schwarber finally crossed that threshold in 2022, leading the NL with 46 dingers, albeit with a .218 batting average.

If you’re looking for another player from this tier who could put up 40-plus home runs in 2023, Jiménez arguably is the best bet, though the 26-year-old needs to show he can stay healthy after playing just 139 games combined the past two years.

Speaking of injury-prone outfielders, Buxton again spent considerable time on the IL in 2022, playing 92 games and hitting 28 homers. The 29-year-old has top-tier skills, but anyone drafting him must prepare for some missed time.

With all due respect to Buxton, Carroll offers the highest fantasy ceiling of anyone in Tier 3 entering 2023. After hitting .307 with 24 homers, 31 steals and a 1.036 OPS in the Minors last season, MLB Pipeline’s No. 2 overall prospect gave fantasy managers a glimpse of his potential while playing for the D-backs down the stretch.

Carroll’s emergence made Varsho expendable for Arizona, and the club traded him to the Blue Jays in December. The 26-year-old is at his most valuable in fantasy as a catcher, ranking just behind our No. 2 option at the position, Will Smith. It’s possible this will be the last year Varsho has catcher eligibility, considering Toronto has Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen behind the plate.

Tier 4: Tyler O’Neill, Seiya Suzuki, Christian Yelich, Steven Kwan, Nick Castellanos, Anthony Santander, Giancarlo Stanton, Taylor Ward, Jake McCarthy, Kris Bryant

O’Neill soared up fantasy draft boards last year on the heels of a 34-homer, 15-steal, .912 OPS season in 2021, but he has a lot to prove after tailing off last year while battling injuries.

Fantasy managers who took a chance on Suzuki after the Japanese star signed a five-year deal with the Cubs had to be thrilled by his hot start, but he missed more than a month with a left finger injury and finished with underwhelming numbers. He’ll look for better results in his second MLB season.

This tier also includes a trio of former MVPs who have seen better days -- Yelich, Stanton and Bryant. With 14 homers, 19 steals and 99 runs scored last season, Yelich was still a useful fantasy outfielder, but he hasn’t come close to his production from 2018-19. Stanton hit 31 homers in 2022, but he set career lows in average (.211), on-base percentage (.297) and slugging (.462) and missed 52 games. Bryant played only 42 games in his first season with the Rockies, though he did post a .306/.376/.475 slash.

Tier 5: Andrew Vaughn, Hunter Renfroe, Ian Happ, Brandon Nimmo, Mitch Haniger, Bryce Harper, Harrison Bader, Oscar Gonzalez, Cody Bellinger, Riley Greene, Lars Nootbaar, Alex Verdugo

The White Sox need more from Vaughn this season after José Abreu departed as a free agent to join the Astros. The 24-year-old did post the fourth-highest hard-hit rate on a per-swing basis (20.7%) in MLB last year, so there’s hope for a breakout this year.

Two more former MVPs -- Harper and Bellinger -- reside in this tier, though they’re here for very different reasons. If he was healthy, Harper would be an early-round pick, but his return date is uncertain after he underwent Tommy John surgery in November. Bellinger, meanwhile, has recorded a lowly .648 OPS since his MVP season in 2019. We’ll see if a change of scenery (he signed with the Cubs after being non-tendered by the Dodgers) does the trick for the 27-year-old.