The 4 LCS teams have been absolutely dominant

The 4 LCS teams have been absolutely dominant

October 15th, 2023

The four teams to reach the 2023 League Championship Series have been dominant. They just haven’t been the teams most people expected.

Only one top-two seed in either league -- Houston -- has made it to the LCS round. Despite having a bye into the Division Series, three 100-win teams never made it out: the Braves, Dodgers and Orioles.

Don’t just chalk that up to those clubs underperforming. Credit their opponents, too. While it’s nearly impossible to make the LCS without playing good baseball, the Astros, Rangers, Phillies and D-backs have been historically successful in the first two rounds of the 2023 postseason.

Those four teams went a combined 18-2 in the Wild Card Series and Division Series, good for a combined .900 winning percentage, while avoiding a single elimination game. Since the Wild Card Era began in 1995, that’s the third-best winning percentage by LCS participants in any postseason. That's even a bit more impressive when you consider the additional games added to the slate via the expanded postseason format.

Best records, LCS participants combined, since 1995
1-T. 2009: 12-1 (.923)
1-T. 2007: 12-1 (.923)
3. 2023: 18-2 (.900)
4. 2014: 14-2 (.875)
5. 2020: 20-3 (.870)

It’s not just wins and losses: 2023’s LCS competitors are also second since 1995 in run differential per game, third in ERA and eighth in runs per game.

Highest run differential per game, LCS participants combined, since 1995
1. 2018: +3.64 runs/game
2. 2023: +3.35 runs/game
3. 2007: +3.15 runs/game
4. 2004: +2.63 runs/game
5. 2020: +2.57 runs/game

Lowest ERA, LCS participants combined, since 1995
1. 2010: 1.84
2. 2018: 2.14
3. 2023: 2.21
4. 2009: 2.27
5. 1998: 2.28

Here’s what makes each of the four 2023 ALCS and NLCS teams so dominant -- and how each squad has gotten to this point.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Astros
How they got here: Beat Twins in ALDS (3-1)

Of the four teams that have made it this far, the Astros actually have the lowest run differential (+1.75 runs per game), highest ERA (3.25) and lowest scoring average (5 runs per game) in 2023 postseason action. But these are still the Astros, who have reached the ALCS or better in EVERY ONE of the past seven seasons. No team left in the 2023 field has anywhere near Houston’s playoff experience, not to mention the Astros’ talent at the plate and on the mound.

An Astros bullpen that ranked first in MLB in the 2022 regular season with a 2.80 ERA gave up just five runs in 54 1/3 postseason innings that year. Those numbers have both come back to Earth in 2023, but Houston’s relief corps is still a major strength. So is having , and -- the man who started the 2022 World Series Game 4 combined no-hitter -- in the starting rotation.

Houston also got clutch performances from two middle-of-the-order sluggers to beat the Twins in the ALDS and come in hot for an in-state showdown with the Rangers. crushed two home runs in Game 1 and added one apiece in Games 2 and 3, while free-agent acquisition went deep twice in Game 3 and homered again in Game 4.

While these Astros weren't as dominant as they have been in past years -- they clinched the AL West on the final day of the regular season, via a tiebreaker with Texas -- they’ve been in control in the postseason once again.

Rangers
How they got here: Beat Rays in Wild Card Series (2-0), Orioles in ALDS (3-0)

The Rangers didn’t exactly end the regular season on a high note, dropping three of their final four games against the Mariners to lose out to the Astros (thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker) for the AL West title and a first-round bye. But all they’ve done since is win, taking down both the Rays and the Orioles despite playing their first four postseason games on the road.

And they’ve been nothing short of dominant in doing so. Texas has outscored its postseason opponents by an average of four runs per game, the highest mark through the Division Series since the 2019 Yankees (5.33). Not only have the Rangers scored the most runs of any 2023 postseason team with 32, but they’re currently running a 2.20 team ERA -- more than two runs below their 4.28 regular-season mark. has allowed just two runs in 13 2/3 innings (a 1.32 ERA), while the Rangers’ bullpen has had a stellar 2.16 ERA so far.

Pairing that pitching with a dangerous top-to-bottom lineup has made Texas a formidable opponent in October. The Rangers led the AL in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage in the regular season, and now they have back from a broken thumb and red-hot rookie in the fray -- not to mention , and  at the top.

The Rangers have been as dominant in the 2023 postseason as anyone could have hoped, and there’s no reason to think that won’t continue.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

D-backs
How they got here: Beat Brewers in Wild Card Series (2-0), Dodgers (3-0) in NLDS

Arizona earned the NL’s third and final Wild Card spot and promptly knocked off two of the league’s top three seeds. Playing each of their first four games on the road, the D-backs swept the Brewers and Dodgers and beat some darn good pitchers to do so, including , and . Now they’re in their first NLCS since 2007 and are certainly hoping it goes better than that 4-0 sweep by the Rockies.

Loaded with young talent, including 2023 NL Rookie of the Year Award favorite , the D-backs have shown they’re built for postseason baseball. Carroll, and lead a potent lineup that has averaged six runs a game, while and are at the forefront of a strong starting rotation. And don’t forget the bullpen: After posting a 4.22 ERA that ranked 18th in the regular season, D-backs relievers have a 1.77 ERA in 20 1/3 postseason innings.

The D-backs have also been dominant on the basepaths and on defense all year, and that hasn’t changed in the postseason. We previously ranked them as the best stolen-base team -- at both stealing bases and preventing opponents from doing so -- in the 12-team field, and their seven postseason steals rank second to only the Phillies' nine. Meanwhile, catcher leads the league in nabbing would-be base stealers. Moreno is part of a D-backs defense that ranked second in Outs Above Average in 2023.

Arizona might have been tied for the fewest wins of any team in the 2023 postseason, but the D-backs are one of the four still standing. There’s good reason for that.

Phillies
How they got here: Beat Marlins in Wild Card Series (2-0), Braves (3-1) in NLDS

After toppling the powerhouse Braves (again) in the NLDS, the Phillies have certainly proved their 2022 World Series run was no fluke. Philadelphia dispatched a pair of NL East rivals to reach the NLCS, handling the Marlins with relative ease in the Wild Card Series before taking out top-seeded Atlanta for the second straight year.

The Phillies, who snapped a 10-year postseason drought in 2022, seem to have found a good formula for winning in October: elite front-of-the-rotation starters, a good hard-throwing bullpen and -- last but definitely not least -- home runs. The Phils slugged 11 homers against the Braves in the NLDS, including six in a Game 3 rout and three solo shots (accounting for all three of their runs) in the Game 4 clincher. and each had two in Game 3, and Castellanos became the first player in AL/NL history with consecutive multihomer games in the postseason by going deep twice in Game 4. The Phillies and the D-backs lead the 2023 postseason field with 13 home runs apiece, which should make for a fireworks-filled NLCS.

But how about that Phillies pitching? and have combined for a 1.75 ERA in 25 2/3 postseason innings, averaging over six innings per outing. even held his own against -- twice! The Phillies’ bullpen was shaky at times in Games 2 and 4 of the NLDS but still got the job done, combining with the team’s starters to hold the Braves’ historic offense to just two runs per game. They’ve played more postseason games than any of the other LCS participants, but the Phillies’ plus-21 postseason run differential leads MLB.

Philadelphia is also dominating on the basepaths while holding its own on defense, things that couldn’t always be said about previous Phillies squads. and Co. have stolen nine bases in six games, ranking in the top 10 of ANY postseason team since 1995 on a per-game basis. Keeping at designated hitter and letting rookie man center field with in left has been huge; just see Rojas’ heart-stopping catch at the wall to rob of a potential series-changing hit late in Game 4.

Fueled by a historic home-field advantage, the Phillies are firing on all cylinders headed into their second straight NLCS. Of course, they’re not the only ones dominating this postseason.