There is nothing like a Game 7. But a Game 5 in a tied series comes close. With their 7-3 win on Saturday, the Rays evened the series, giving us a massive pivot game in the ALCS. If the Rays win, they go back to the Trop, where they had the best home record in baseball, just needing one win to reach the World Series. If the Guardians win, they’re a game away themselves, with Gavin Williams looming. It’s Game 5. It can mean everything.
Here are three key storylines leading into ALCS Game 5 tonight.
ALCS Game 5: Rays at Guardians (Tied 2-2)
5 p.m. ET, TBS/HBO Max
SP: Drew Rasmussen (TB) vs. Parker Messick (CLE)
Did the Rays' best hitters finally get it going?
The Rays have had a versatile, dynamic offense all season, but it has also been a little bit top-heavy, with Junior Caminero, Yandy Díaz and Jonathan Aranda the three guys they’ve known they could count on all year. But heading into Game 4, those three were a combined 5-for-34 this series with one RBI, which was a primary reason the Rays came into that game down 2-1. But they looked a lot more like their normal selves on Saturday.
Díaz had a double and, of course, that two-run insurance homer in the ninth, Aranda was 3-for-4 with two runs scored and two RBIs, and Caminero had an RBI and a 110.7 mph shot to center field that surely would have been a homer almost any night in which it wasn’t so cold. Caminero, in particular, is the sort of transcendent talent that can carry a team in a postseason. If he gets going, look out.
Will Kevin Cash regret using Bryan Baker to close out a four-run lead?
It’s fair to give Rays manager Kevin Cash the benefit of the doubt for calling on his dominant closer to protect a four-run lead, as a Game 4 loss for the Rays would have been disastrous. That’s a win you absolutely have to nail down, and Cash went with the pitcher he trusts the most.
However. Because of the rainout on Friday, there is no travel day between Game 5 in Cleveland and Game 6 at the Trop. That means no days off. Therefore, as much as you want to make sure you nail down that win, some rationing of the pitcher who has given up one hit and no runs in five appearances so far might have been in order. (Fun fact: Baker has given up exactly four earn runs since May 17.) Baker obviously can’t pitch in four straight days without losing some effectiveness; you’d have to think Cash (like any other manager in baseball) wouldn’t dare push four straight like that. But if we’ve learned one thing from this postseason, it’s that these games tend to be extremely close, and when push comes to shove, you maybe want to have that guy who has been untouchable fully rested and ready to deploy at maximum capability.
Sure, Baker held onto that four-run lead. But the Rays may need him to hold onto a closer one sometime in the next three games. When does Cash push the Baker button and discover he’s run out of gas?
Side plot to monitor: Baker’s fastball was sitting around 92-93 mph in Game 4. Was this due to the cold, or the continuation of a trend of diminishing velocity in the last couple months of the season?
Is this game now a “must-win” for Cleveland?
The Guardians had a real, palpable chance to take over this series -- to, in fact, potentially clinch a trip to the World Series at home for the first time ever. But now? Well, now, not only have they lost the home-field advantage they snatched from the Rays in Game 1, but they’re staring down the possibility of, if they lose Game 5, going all the way out to Florida, with no day off, having to win twice against the team with the best home record in the AL this year.
That makes Game 5 of paramount importance. You should probably expect them to empty the tank, bullpen-wise, with this one, to basically treat this as something as close to an elimination game as you can get without it actually being an elimination game. Parker Messick hopefully can give them some innings as he starts on regular rest, but he’s been worked awfully hard this October, and it’s hard to expect a rookie to be a workhorse at this stage of the season. None of the trusted bullpen trio of Cade Smith, Evan Gaddis, and Eric Sabrowski appeared in Game 4, so expect to see them featured heavily on Sunday.
Even with no days off the rest of this series, the Guardians really can’t afford to mess around. Every Game 5 of a tied series is pivotal. But it feels like it’s the Guardians who are a little more under the gun here.